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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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43 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

winter after winter?...North America is generally much colder than Europe as the norm anyway.

It’s like saying “Why is Barbados getting all our summer weather year after year”. 

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gfs-0-228.png?12gfs-7-228.png?12
not going to make it on this run the block is slap bang over the UK  unfortunately is a dirty high

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After all that! Britain to be savaged by dead sheep?🐑

image.thumb.png.0954f84be78568e91784c94fd8fe78a8.png

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-228.png?12gfs-7-228.png?12
not going to make it on this run the block is slap bang over the UK  unfortunately is a dirty high

Whats clearly coming into view is the mjo push, now will it be enough push, i'm not sure who has performed better on levels of amplification this year, but we need the gfs to be more in line with its slightly better mjocast. A big eye on what the heights are coming up against now aswell, lots of clutter to the North right now bringing it to a halt.

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

After all that! Britain to be savaged by dead sheep?🐑

image.thumb.png.0954f84be78568e91784c94fd8fe78a8.png

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Looks just about right uk high no Easterly no Northerly middle ground outcome happy enough at that in settled conditions banker for me.

Frosty mornings glorious Sunny afternoons lovely. 

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-0-288.png

gfs-1-240.png

gfs-1-288.png

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At the range it is showing I wouldn't be taking any detail seriously at all but the continuing trend of trying to build the pressure further north is a pleasing one to see from a coldies point of view. I would love machine there could be some stonking ensemble runs for the extended period in the set later.. 

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

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So the cold plunge spreading west on the 6z is now transferring SE on the 12z. With some slightly colder uppers pushing down from the NW, what a difference 6 hours makes, just watch the 18s bring it further west again. 

gfs-1-384.png

2uejxx2_th.jpg

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

So the cold plunge spreading west on the 6z is now transferring SE on the 12z. With some slightly colder uppers pushing down from the NW, what a difference 6 hours makes, just watch the 18s bring it further west again. 

gfs-1-384.png

2uejxx2_th.jpg

I tell you what, I have a good feeling we will see some cold weather..in MARCH!!😉

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I tell you what, I have a good feeling we will see some cold weather..in MARCH!!😉

Which year though?

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20 minutes ago, March said:

It’s like saying “Why is Barbados getting all our summer weather year after year”. 

I suppose I meant propensity for colder than average winters in N.America, since about 2013. Not all the time, in every winter, since then, of course, but there has seemed to be a general propensity for the pacific jet to plunge deep into US bringing cold weather in winters of last 5 years.

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8 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Which year though?

That's above / beyond my paygrade..sorry😃

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No joy this time on the GEFS.

image.thumb.png.3ce5f8f098488d72585e22e35d1ce235.png

Gutted.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No joy this time on the GEFS.

image.thumb.png.3ce5f8f098488d72585e22e35d1ce235.png

Gutted.

Following the EPS as ever.

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No joy this time on the GEFS.

image.thumb.png.3ce5f8f098488d72585e22e35d1ce235.png

Gutted.

You’ve been gutted a lot this winter, how do you have any guts left at this point 😂 

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I'm not sure whether the meds on here are running low since November!! I'd agree we all need to clutch at straws but the spin on the current output with regards to cold is making me dizzy.dry and mild is the theme which for me is better than some rank frosty high.Its all or nothing in my eyes and given the time of year if there's zero snow let's have some unseasonably mild weather.

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No joy this time on the GEFS.

image.thumb.png.3ce5f8f098488d72585e22e35d1ce235.png

Gutted.

It looks quite similar to the 6z still? Only thing better was the control going very cold I think

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No joy this time on the GEFS.

image.thumb.png.3ce5f8f098488d72585e22e35d1ce235.png

Gutted.

Landed on another snake instead of a ladder!

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Just now, Weathizard said:

You’ve been gutted a lot this winter, how do you have any guts left at this point 😂 

True!...he keeps coming back for more even though there's been so many 'game over's' this winter.

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6 hours ago, Drifter said:

6z gefs...

22g9fb.jpg

12z gefs...

game-over.jpg

It's a funny old game 😂

Edited by Drifter

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Just now, Leon1 said:

It looks quite similar to the 6z still? Only thing better was the control going very cold I think

the control on the previous run looked great but no support or intra run consistency surely means just an outlier - are we really thinking it was a trendsetter and it will show again ..?

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1 minute ago, Drifter said:

12z gefs...

game-over.jpg

It's a funny old game 😂

A predictable game as well!

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