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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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1 hour ago, Chris101 said:

Still stands, maybe more 168ish😁

Looking at the 6z gfs the euro high is doing what we looked for the Siberian high to do a few weeks back.

Inadvertently the Euro high could do the job better imo when heights build west.

Unseasonable warmth to cold?? 

This is mirroring what we saw last year nearly! It did get very mild towards mid feb beast from the east hit! Maybe it is a sign! If this is what happens again this year then we can use this as a strong signal potentially for future winters!

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Just now, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Pretty spectacular uppers in Eastern Europe making some inroads to the uk by late feb on the latest gfs run!

 

51479B60-3C13-4C32-B1C9-1DB2B78B028F.png

looks like Greece and the Balkans getting the cold again.

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1 minute ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Pretty spectacular uppers in Eastern Europe making some inroads to the uk by late feb on the latest gfs run!

 

51479B60-3C13-4C32-B1C9-1DB2B78B028F.png

When i look at charts lite this one I can't help but notice how much damage the Alps are doing to our cold chances. You can see the uppers are colder to the east and even south of the Alps but with the southeasterly flow they warm up as they head to France and the UK. If only they were in Ireland instead, positioned north to south.

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7 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Posted the wrong one sorry, this is the latest one for end of feb, blues starting to invade the uk. Don’t know how far they will get though, you can see the winds angling from southern Germany and Czech Republic 

 

FDA598EA-433D-47C2-BC93-3A426B2897F8.png

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

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2 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Posted the wrong one sorry, this is the latest one for end of feb, blues starting to invade the uk. Don’t know how far they will get though

 

FDA598EA-433D-47C2-BC93-3A426B2897F8.png

well I guess its a start but uppers of -3 over the south and midlands do not a beast make!

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8 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

well I guess its a start but uppers of -3 over the south and midlands do not a beast make!

Maybe not, but it's certainly better than the garbage we have been viewing lately. 

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9 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

This is mirroring what we saw last year nearly! It did get very mild towards mid feb beast from the east hit! Maybe it is a sign! If this is what happens again this year then we can use this as a strong signal potentially for future winters!

At my age I've seen it on numerous occasions, warm to freeze.

Like a few have said it's the small difference between wrong side and right side, again in my years of models imo I would rather see crap synoptic for cold at long range slowly nudge towards something in better favour than the continuous glory charts slimming down to a sudden fail. When people say look for trends in the models, it's hard to see it but that is a trend and not for good, so again the best hope is for something to buck that trend.

So as it goes will we get from warm to cold or not enough push and stay mild, I use the word push because just at the right moment the mjo push begins to show.

Now we really begin to have hope. 

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Good afternoon, before the 12z's come out, I thought I'd give an update on the current GEFS.

They are still dominated by mild weather patterns and the swingometers show that the output has been pretty consistent over the last 24 hours when viewed as a whole. A few do try and build heights over Greenland and P17 succeeds to produce a fine run, but that is clutching at straws. It would make a nice end to winter though.

image.thumb.png.e9ab07f89f6dcc4d2ce062e99ea4f911.pngimage.thumb.png.5fb51849ced63a51430d2d4db52a8a6e.png 

Going all the way out to February 25th and unfortunately there is a strong mild signal though it is some way out. A few decent Greenland blocks in there though. P15 is the nicest before GFS does its usual thing and whisks it away.

image.thumb.png.e26e7c4499f33f1dc3450f72de5cf03f.pngimage.thumb.png.820893554bcdaeddf018b94cb6653f97.png 

Looking further afield and its clear to see which area of the Northern hemisphere is hogging all the colder then average temperatures. Almost all of the US and Canada is well below average... with the exception of Alaska. Earlier forecasts of a strong phase 1/8 MJO appear to have waned if the ECM is anything to go by so not much can be gleaned here. I hope some of the stronger phase 8/1 forecasts come into fruition as they can be good for us but huge uncertainty at the moment/

 image.thumb.png.e393f137650b42981632b1ca184b60d5.png image.thumb.png.2a03781dfa39cd378a687dd78fa2c8d2.png

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12 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

well I guess its a start but uppers of -3 over the south and midlands do not a beast make!

They start somewhere tho. If you kept that easterly flow for 3 days or so it would be widespread -8s

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19 minutes ago, karyo said:

When i look at charts lite this one I can't help but notice how much damage the Alps are doing to our cold chances. You can see the uppers are colder to the east and even south of the Alps but with the southeasterly flow they warm up as they head to France and the UK. If only they were in Ireland instead, positioned north to south.

Or if only the cold was coming directly where it’s from instead of taking a lads on tour in Rimini on the way to us!

A straight easterly or even better ENE/NE is what we really need.

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9 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Or if only the cold was coming directly where it’s from instead of taking a lads on tour in Rimini on the way to us!

A straight easterly or even better ENE/NE is what we really need.

It doesn't look too bad, even though the cold is flowing into Eastern Europe it looks to get cut off in an ok position for a fairly good feed.

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Gosh am I the only one pulling my hair out about north america getting all the cold winter after winter - surely it can't go on for ever.  Is it simply being caused by deep troughs forming there?

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icon-5-168.png?12-12icon-5-180.png

A shaper jet helping push heights north like the GFS runs, stops before we can see if it would follow the GFS 06z Run 

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So here's our mean from 06z at 240z

PV energy transferred over Siberia should signal height rises to or N/NW eventually

gensnh-21-1-240.png

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48 minutes ago, Bruegelian said:

Gosh am I the only one pulling my hair out about north america getting all the cold winter after winter - surely it can't go on for ever.  Is it simply being caused by deep troughs forming there?

winter after winter?...North America is generally much colder than Europe as the norm anyway.

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UKMO 12z at day 6 is disappointing - much flatter than this morning's run!

image.thumb.png.b0271ecf2d4a9b007c97916842e44cb9.png

Edited by mulzy

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1 hour ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Pretty spectacular uppers in Eastern Europe

 

51479B60-3C13-4C32-B1C9-1DB2B78B028F.png

I'm green with envy, actually so is the uk and france.:crazy:

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Why can't it move westwards. Just once. Sick of seeing it cascade down to Greece. Ridiculous 

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The most frustrating chart of winter in my eyes goes to GFS. Core of vortex trying to establish on the right side of hemishere, everything looks primed for amplification, yet we have 3! low pressure systems churning away in Atlantic ready to kill any hopes of height raises to the north/northwest. Someone please give me an answer why is the atmosphere cursed with this pattern with some many winters in a row now

gfsnh-0-144.png

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3 minutes ago, jules216 said:

The most frustrating chart of winter in my eyes goes to GFS. Core of vortex trying to establish on the right side of hemishere, everything looks primed for amplification, yet we have 3! low pressure systems churning away in Atlantic ready to kill any hopes of height raises to the north/northwest. Someone please give me an answer why is the atmosphere cursed with this pattern with some many winters in a row now

gfsnh-0-144.png

gfsnh-0-150.png
one more than the 06z 

gfs-5-174.png?12gfs-5-180.png?6

Is the jet going to help pump some heights to our north, much more aggressive than the 06z 

Edited by frosty ground

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12z out to 186 looks like the 06z control!

FCCF2A94-DEAC-4112-A8BB-BDDFC4DC1099.thumb.png.ccd11366b42a1d1944a2e97618ff636e.png

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