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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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I do not know what the GFS is signaling with an NH profile like this:

gfsnh-0-372.thumb.png.a8c5bb030b76a4df947f309f082ad904.png

The PV in fragments, Arctic High and HLB'ing?

This was what I was expecting a month ago!

Just an aberration or one to watch?

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Just now, frosty ground said:

image.thumb.png.03656e40313890d89cf183cb5b705752.png

Won't look special on the 850's 

But it would 2 days later.

 

Unfortunately the 6z is too far east for us for us to benefit from the initial block. But at least something is showing on the models this morning.

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

image.thumb.png.03656e40313890d89cf183cb5b705752.png

Won't look special on the 850's 

might do if it went further though, anyway, its all due to the latitude the ridge gets, and as you can see with the uppers to the East,if we could get any flow from anywhere in the quadrant bewtween N and E, the uppers would be brutal because all the cold air has been displaced from the Arctic, it just shows you how much easier it can make things with a genuine HLB and not a mid-high latt block.. Just want a few more members showing this on the ens now.

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Could this be our moment? The thing we've spent the last three-months hoping for?:search:

image.thumb.png.2be59b5e3c8d0ebcc9ae302036fb82ba.pngimage.thumb.png.f397cf038594d89d0472f1c5673d0b11.png  

 

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Could this be our moment? The thing we've spent the last three-months hoping for?:search:

image.thumb.png.2be59b5e3c8d0ebcc9ae302036fb82ba.pngimage.thumb.png.f397cf038594d89d0472f1c5673d0b11.png  

 

Bloody hope so. Although the 06Z GFS is where the ECM is heading hence my earlier post.

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And 6️⃣Z GEFS heading in the right direction. ✔️:oldgood:

 

Member 17 the best -15 isotherm should be reached!

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And 6️⃣Z GEFS heading in the right direction. ✔️

 

Member 17 the best -15 isotherm should be reached!

Control looks good as well 192 onwards !

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Mean on the GEFS has more negative tilt on the low in the Atlantic and better ridging north.

 

 

 

Edited by Snowman.

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Control looks good as well 192 onwards !

Yes, my only concern is we need more members to be dropping that cold trough from the Arctic like the op run did.  -   more doing it that the 0z but we need even more.

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Wanted more but better.

image.thumb.png.d35fe71059cb09b67f9963c493e84612.png

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Wanted more but better.

image.thumb.png.d35fe71059cb09b67f9963c493e84612.png

Just about to post these but its a good shift in the right direction.

The pronounced dip on the 17th is something to watch.

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Just about to post these but its a good shift in the right direction.

The pronounced dip on the 17th is something to watch.

TBH that really big further dip is a bit too soon afterwards IMO, but it its definitely better at the end, this looks all or nothing though.

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Few less towels on the ring floor now perhaps, key is lifting that stubborn Euro block north, lag effects of MJO through 7-8 may help with that, also getting the northern arm of the split jet round the block to dig more SW on the eastern edge of the block to drag the deep cold our way and drop those heights over mainland Europe, increasing undercut from Atlantic side of the block may help too.

GFSOPEU06_324_21.thumb.png.5a06fcfc2d0b0cf092e0382a99bfae5f.png

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26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Wanted more but better.

image.thumb.png.d35fe71059cb09b67f9963c493e84612.png

What is incredible with these is last nights 18Z GEFS ensembles had the coldest member in F.I at only -2C!!

Considering the ECM I have increasing confidence that low pressure is going to track S into the Med  with a developing -NAO. However what no member should currently have confidence in is whether the orientation of the block brings bitter N/E,lys to the UK. Such a fine margin between bitter E,lys and mild S,lys!

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6 minutes ago, TEITS said:

What is incredible with these is last nights 18Z GEFS ensembles had the coldest member in F.I at only -2C!!

Considering the ECM I have increasing confidence that low pressure is going to track S into the Med  with a developing -NAO. However what no member should currently have confidence in is whether the orientation of the block brings bitter N/E,lys to the UK. Such a fine margin between bitter E,lys and mild S,lys!

Yes, FWIW (and yes i know you are not a fan of the 16-30 dayer and this winter it could be argued its with good reason!) the 30 dayer are going for undercutters producing battleground snowfall.

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Wanted more but better.

image.thumb.png.d35fe71059cb09b67f9963c493e84612.png

For now the signal is growing. Let's hope it keeps doing so.

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Could tie in with what some have been saying for a while, a potentially much colder end to winter/ start to spring! Let the cat see the rabbit!! 👍😂

gfs-1-384.png

3482987_th.jpg

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On 10/02/2019 at 13:42, Chris101 said:

 

Given the performances this winter I'm surprised more aren't shouting game on, this is probably the best chance yet of seeing a big flip to cold😂

I'll go for a punt, 144/168 on the 12th/13th🙈

Still stands, maybe more 168ish😁

Looking at the 6z gfs the euro high is doing what we looked for the Siberian high to do a few weeks back.

Inadvertently the Euro high could do the job better imo when heights build west.

Unseasonable warmth to cold?? 

Edited by Chris101

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1 hour ago, legritter said:

on my return from the wood shed i had a look at the GFS , well certainly a big improvement and lets hope that continues . I always feel that if it turns very mild with no hope ,then perhaps something is lurking around the corner ,a STraw clutch perhaps , but certainly on the 12th of February i for one am still up for the Hunt for cold .still awaiting Exeters update ,so i can try and read between the lines . Thanks again for all those that contribute to this great forum ,let the Hunt resume ,cheers .

Legritter. Stellas all round. Hope gfs continues and develops this theme. 

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Looking at the GFS 6z control run I can't help wondering if all those towels that were thrown in could have been made into nice scarves for a snowman instead😀☃️

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As i mentioned last night, things looking more and more interesting.

🙂

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