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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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ECM continues where it left off last night deep trough in the mid Atlantic in the 8-10 day range high ridging north through the uk towards Scandinavia. Notice the energy spilling over the top of the block down into Russia and underneath, this helping to keep the block in situ and riding north.

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8 minutes ago, legritter said:

Good morning gang, im going up the wood shed with me sausage sandwiches brown sauce .going to do what i did this time last year , so expect big changes in the charts later today  ,ecm will show a stonking northern block at 192 hrs ,gfs later today will smell the Coffee ,met office will mention wide spread snowfall  ,and the express will have 8 pages of Snow hell , jack daws are all flocking today ,squirrels are barricading their homes with straw ,help iv run out of prozack .I do like the ecm at 10 days , repeat 100 times , and here is the weather forecast , change expected soon ,cheers gang STellas all round .

Best post all winter. Like your enthusiasm. Bravo 😁

Edited by weathermadbarnsleylad
Missed a key point

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31 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well it’s a little bit higher this morning 

You're seeing more positives this morning?

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3 minutes ago, Don said:

You're seeing more positives this morning?

I said a few days ago that the ec op or eps spreads have to show low heights getting to our south - the 00z suite hints at that post day 10 which is why I increased the chance a little 

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18 minutes ago, legritter said:

Good morning gang, im going up the wood shed with me sausage sandwiches brown sauce .going to do what i did this time last year , so expect big changes in the charts later today  ,ecm will show a stonking northern block at 192 hrs ,gfs later today will smell the Coffee ,met office will mention wide spread snowfall  ,and the express will have 8 pages of Snow hell , jack daws are all flocking today ,squirrels are barricading their homes with straw ,help iv run out of prozack .I do like the ecm at 10 days , repeat 100 times , and here is the weather forecast , change expected soon ,cheers gang STellas all round .

Did you run out of Prozac because you consumed the whole box prior to this post? 😂  Wish I was as positive as this! 

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Maybe this is not strictly model related, but I have started to wonder why are some of the experts here so hung up on looking for EL Nino atmospheric response to bring us blocked winter.

Have a look at a comparison between MEI years and NAO. A lot more negative NAO in La Nina years rather then EL Nino. in 50s and 60s there were plenty of deep -NAO winters and Strong La Nina. If we look at early 90s dross it correlates with mainly EL Nino. I know where are lot more variables in play,just a thought.

mnth_nao_1950.gif

DzE3gq6WsAE3sL8.jpg

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3 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Is next winter La Niña or El Niño?

Too early to tell with certainty at this range. Current forecasts hint at neutral or weak el nino but we won't know until late summer i think.

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19 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Maybe this is not strictly model related, but I have started to wonder why are some of the experts here so hung up on looking for EL Nino atmospheric response to bring us blocked winter.

Have a look at a comparison between MEI years and NAO. A lot more negative NAO in La Nina years rather then EL Nino. in 50s and 60s there were plenty of deep -NAO winters and Strong La Nina. If we look at early 90s dross it correlates with mainly EL Nino. I know where are lot more variables in play,just a thought.

mnth_nao_1950.gif

DzE3gq6WsAE3sL8.jpg

 

I personally think that the PDO state is too ignored here. There is a reasonable decadal correlation to the winter AO.

4 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Is next winter La Niña or El Niño?

Right now we have a surfacing cold pool but also a warm pool so unknown. Check again in 6 months.

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21 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Maybe this is not strictly model related, but I have started to wonder why are some of the experts here so hung up on looking for EL Nino atmospheric response to bring us blocked winter.

Have a look at a comparison between MEI years and NAO. A lot more negative NAO in La Nina years rather then EL Nino. in 50s and 60s there were plenty of deep -NAO winters and Strong La Nina. If we look at early 90s dross it correlates with mainly EL Nino. I know where are lot more variables in play,just a thought.

mnth_nao_1950.gif

DzE3gq6WsAE3sL8.jpg

Is the ENSO index adjusted to take care of the anthropogenic forcing of the climate?  If not, then with the background warming signal we are going to get more El Ninos and less La Ninas.

Edited by mulzy

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Still quite garbage, but interesting differences to our west at day 6

0ACC551B-7525-4C05-AE8A-B43DC0BAC62A.png

EBF68CA6-001C-4F91-B47E-E3D911EA491D.png

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3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

 

I personally think that the PDO state is too ignored here. There is a reasonable decadal correlation to the winter AO.

Right now we have a surfacing cold pool but also a warm pool so unknown. Check again in 6 months.

I agree very much so and would like to see consecutive winters with -PDO and also with a reasonable Atlantic tripole signature. Then see what NAO response it does create in winter

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Do we have a small ridge going up here?🤔 Look at the differences to our north west

29BEE1BB-8416-4DF8-A527-DBAD07F80DDA.png

813E2489-0982-45DE-ADF2-55933F99A031.png

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6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Still quite garbage, but interesting differences to our west at day 6

0ACC551B-7525-4C05-AE8A-B43DC0BAC62A.png

EBF68CA6-001C-4F91-B47E-E3D911EA491D.png

Looking like the GFSP runs

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gfs-5-174.png?6gfs-5-180.png

The Jet is more amplified, probably not enougth but maybe we can get some continental air which should be clearer 

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I’m not going to say it... ok I am.

Potential??

58F5013E-109A-4F00-AE9A-89BB8AD4033A.png

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

I’m not going to say it... ok I am.

Potential??

58F5013E-109A-4F00-AE9A-89BB8AD4033A.png

We really need the ensemble means products to shift the ridge further West.

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Was about say that even the good old GFS has given-up on screaming potential...Unless it's being tortured to death by the Spanish Inquisition!😱

image.thumb.png.ded630dd5a427699064fab1d656e300c.png

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GFS 6Z confirming a notion of this mornings ECMWF run. Can we scrape something extra out of this winter?

For my location in Slovakia which looks like it might be benefiting quite promptly out of this extra amplification, the 0Z ECMWF was joined by small cluster of ensemble members, going further towards 15 day range there is lets call them sympathetic amount of clusters going for even colder solution, but mean only drops little below 0C. There is still hope, but we need to grab the momentum now. 

Capture.PNG

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The problem is that we wouldn't need the ridge to be any further West than it is on the 6z, provided we could get it to a very high latitude like the Arctic, perhaps its the upper Westerlies downwelling that will prevent this, if we could achieve this then almost intuitively an undercut would occur and subsequent Easterly, without this latitude gain then we really need the ridge about 1000 miles West of where it is say on the EPS 240 mean.

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