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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

10/15% 

the 46 doesn’t show the euro heights leaving us ......

I read that as 100/105%

 

Goodnight

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42 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Dreadful GFS 0z run again. What’s happened to the MJO signal ?

Indeed more head scratching for the 'expert's...hideous looking outlook this morning if you like cold or are planning a European ski holiday....

 

GFSOPEU00_228_1.png

Edited by KTtom

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6 hours ago, TEITS said:

Just when you think it couldn't get any worse along comes the 18Z. Probably one of the most dreadful runs for cold I have ever seen along with the GEFS ensembles.

Even im thinking of taking a break for a few days from viewing this ghastly output. I don't think I have ever seen such a difference between what was promised and what is being predicred since I started viewing the models on the internet. This isn't a dig at any members here but generally towards long range models, tweets, Met O forecasts etc.

Exactly! I guess in a way it makes weather watching all the more interesting, as those 'background signals obviously have had little if any effect this year on a mediocre winter which looks like transitioning to spring pretty rapidly...ec46 you forgot to add has been a joke.

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Well now that the oh so accurate harbinger of northern blocking the EC46 has gone for southwesterlies all the way.  I feel even more confident of seeing more significant snowfall between now and mid-March .😂

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Good ECM D10 chart, where have i heard that before?

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5 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Really ?

 

F2A54F19-DEE0-4C20-A623-EE1F5970BD95.png

image.thumb.png.ddd2cc673613bf5eb5644b7510092a27.png

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Somehow thing there will be big changes between now and that 22nd feb chart lol. Remember very small early changes make massive changes later on

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2 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Dreadful GFS 0z run again. What’s happened to the MJO signal ?

The normal GFS was and still pig sh*t!!

Edited by D.V.R

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Sorry to say the latest output is utterly vile when you think back to what exeter were indicating through January for February with very cold E / NE winds and enhanced snow risk..the current outlook stinks!

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The ECM 00z mean in London now just gets below 0 on the 19th before heading back up. The peak of the mild air continues to be Friday

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.be1aac2fc51453619da4715fbc0c5ad6.png

Scotland still showing hints of something a bit cooler (colder?) for a time next week

sco.thumb.png.7c6aff659afb3a4979046f9a9eb71202.png

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Morning, I think this thread should be now deemed...... The Wild Goose Chase....😂

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The 5-day max high is 10c in southern Scotland & 13c in the south given GFS has a tendency to under do temps at times and the potential Foehn effect isolated mid teens highs still can't be ruled out

gfs_euro-lc_t2max_5-day.thumb.png.8612e1499581b113f462793530dcaa20.png

Very little rain over the 5-days as you'd expect with high pressure dominating

gfs_euro-lc_aprcp_5-day.thumb.png.21acb45ca5b66ef3bd3e886e8fb84e81.pnggfs_euro-lc_mslp_5-day.thumb.png.92ef1c7e73d237007e5225be6ec67231.png

Edited by Summer Sun

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Ext EPS - just copy/paste the day 10 mean right through to day 15.

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.ddd2cc673613bf5eb5644b7510092a27.png

Para very similar as D10:

gfsnh-0-240.png

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3 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Dreadful GFS 0z run again. What’s happened to the MJO signal ?

It's been over ridden by the atmospheric state. 

Despite being in a weak El Nino,  the atmosphere is more La Nina.  No one knows why. 

Probably the SSW going against us.

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At least the GEFS ensembles have slightly improved compared with the 18Z although that isn't saying much!

t850Cambridgeshire.png

The ECM is pretty decent at +240 and if it went out to +300 a pretty decent cold spell would be affecting the UK.

These are the only positives I can find amongst a generally poor set of 0Zs.

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7 hours ago, Ramp said:

I read that as 100/105%

 

Goodnight

Well it’s a little bit higher this morning 

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8 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Ext EPS - just copy/paste the day 10 mean right through to day 15.

EDM1-240.GIF?12-12
If we can get the high to back west slightly we can get rid of the atlantic muck that is being drawn in with it, so a nice sunny settle spell with frost rather than a lot of low cloud and damp weather 

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8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's been over ridden by the atmospheric state. 

Despite being in a weak El Nino,  the atmosphere is more La Nina.  No one knows why. 

Probably the SSW going against us.

Or the MJO forecast was wrong 

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Or the MJO forecast was wrong 

Or MJO forecast are worth there weight in kangaroo dung.

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I actually believe we would have had a better winter if the background signals were poor!..just a thought😉👍😃

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