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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If anyone needed convincing that there is no sign of nirvana in the modelling then surely the above post is it, more to the point, who actually posted it!

D16 mean changes each run...…….waste of time and be skewed either way by a couple of big cold or mild outliers 

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6 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Understand your frustration but why mid to late February when 1st February is still 11 days away?  Well outside the reliable timeframe?

With the shifting seasonal wavelengths coupled with the SSW I think proper blocking is more likely in mid to late February. 

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Just now, Jackski4 said:

Half of you saying it's gonna be cold/very cold with a blocking potentially and other half saying it's nothing like that.... This feels a lot like Brexit!

I can’t see any HLB .... this side of the NH ...... but I can see a better effort at proper wedging in the 7/14 day period 

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I think it’s a bit of a stalemate at present between the SSW downwelling and unfavourable phases of the MJO.

So we’re not getting much help from the latter .

I think being realistic at the moment the best on offer is some transitory wedges of high pressure near Iceland , with some toppling toward Scandi and a transitory ne flow as that happens .

To get a proper slider after that we’d need some relaxation of the PV , currently it keeps feeding energy into any shortwaves which then deepen so we can’t get that shallow enough feature to slip se.

 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I can’t see any HLB .... this side of the NH ...... but I can see a better effort at proper wedging in the 7/14 day period 

I think that's what a lot of people have been saying.. No very cold conditions sustained until atleast after day 8, but after then it looks quite promising?

 

I guess people are just getting frustrated because it was supposed to happen this week now they have to wait again.

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I think it’s a bit of a stalemate at present between the SSW downwelling and unfavourable phases of the MJO.

So we’re not getting much help from the latter .

I think being realistic at the moment the best on offer is some transitory wedges of high pressure near Iceland , with some toppling toward Scandi and a transitory ne flow as that happens .

To get a proper slider after that we’d need some relaxation of the PV , currently it keeps feeding energy into any shortwaves which then deepen so we can’t get that shallow enough feature to slip se.

 

I mentioned the MJO the other day Nick, are we expecting some help from it soon?

It would appear the euro low is attracting the jetstream but still no sign of genuine blocking to the NW..

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3 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

I think that's what a lot of people have been saying.. No very cold conditions sustained until atleast after day 8, but after then it looks quite promising?

 

I guess people are just getting frustrated because it was supposed to happen this week now they have to wait again.

Totally 

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2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

I think that's what a lot of people have been saying.. No very cold conditions sustained until atleast after day 8, but after then it looks quite promising?

 

I guess people are just getting frustrated because it was supposed to happen this week now they have to wait again.

Sledgeually frustrated?!  😂

Still hopeful / expectant that we will start to see some genuine HLB around the turn of the month for what it's worth....

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1 minute ago, snowfish1 said:

Totally 

I think we all need to dust ourselves off and admit defeat for this week. But let's face it, the long term outlook looks amazing going into early February and beyond.

 

Stay positive!

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

I mentioned the MJO the other day Nick, are we expecting some help from it soon?

It would appear the euro low is attracting the jetstream but still no sign of genuine blocking to the NW..

MJO forecasts have been quite unreliable this winter at a long lead time . But taken at face value they’re expected to move into phase 5 then 6 although it looks like harder work to get into 7 .

I wouldn’t expect much help from the MJO for the next ten days but within the overall pattern we see things could develop a bit more favourable depending on those wedges of high pressure . 

As long as people don’t expect a deep freeze for roughly the next ten days then there will be at least something to talk about .

Not great not terrible but I think enough to keep our interest .

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5 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Sledgeually frustrated?!  😂

Still hopeful / expectant that we will start to see some genuine HLB around the turn of the month for what it's worth....

So am i! I think early February and beyond looks really good, and I think February is going to be an extremely cold month potentially even leading into March. Could be horribly wrong, but here in the SE we had snow last March with bitter easterlies! Plenty of time for cold weather, and it looks a dead cert! PS that joke was the highlight of my year !

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2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

I think we all need to dust ourselves off and admit defeat for this week. But let's face it, the long term outlook looks amazing going into early February and beyond.

 

Stay positive!

Trouble is, the longer term outlook has looked amazing for a long time, but never getting into the reliable, carrot at the end of the stick comes to mind.

Still, the outlook could be much worse if we didn’t have the persistent Euro trough helping keep the jet on a NW to SE axis with UK predominantly on the cold side, but with no signs of HLB, it will be a struggle to keep temperatures low enough in the NWly or occasionally Nly flow away from Scotland to keep any snow that falls on the ground for long. 

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2 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

Do you spot the recurring theme here?

Everything has continued to be pushed further and further back, despite favourable 'background signals'.

I stand by my opinion that we still know too little about teleconnections and upper level factors and are rolling dice to an extent hoping for a double 6. The noise has apparently been promising since late November, but you only have to look at the score sheet to see who's winning. 

Also, ask yourself the question; if we have such a good grasp of these background signals, then why the volte force on Friday that caught so many off guard? (It's a rhetorical question and doesn't require an excuse as to why everything has been pushed further back). 

So, back to day 10. 

Have a good working week everybody! 😊

Glad it's rhetorical because I did NOT have the answer!😂 I'm just remaining positive that eventually given all the background signals and constant 10 day promise, that it'll eventually come to fruition!

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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Trouble is, the longer term outlook has looked amazing for a long time, but never getting into the reliable, carrot at the end of the stick comes to mind.

Still, the outlook could be much worse if we didn’t have the persistent Euro trough helping keep the jet on a NW to SE axis with UK predominantly on the cold side, but with no signs of HLB, it will be a struggle to keep temperatures low enough in the NWly or occasionally Nly flow away from Scotland to keep any snow that falls on the ground for long. 

Let's hope this time it gets into the reliable. If not maybe I'll start to become disheartened!

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2 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

Do you spot the recurring theme here?

Everything has continued to be pushed further and further back, despite favourable 'background signals'.

I stand by my opinion that we still know too little about teleconnections and upper level factors and are rolling dice to an extent hoping for a double 6. The noise has apparently been promising since late November, but you only have to look at the score sheet to see who's winning. 

Also, ask yourself the question; if we have such a good grasp of these background signals, then why the volte force on Friday that caught so many off guard? (It's a rhetorical question and doesn't require an excuse as to why everything has been pushed further back). 

So, back to day 10. 

Have a good working week everybody! 😊

I don’t think people are making excuses . I think the problem is expectation management . Good background signals are not a guarantee of cold for the UK.

Cold weather into the UK is always a struggle and will always be .  But let’s put this another way if the background signals were bad with a raging PV and positive AO then it’s like running up a hill with a heavy backpack . Good signals running up that hill without that . If you know what I mean !

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent 🙂

CFS

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Although I remain optimistic for February, I'm beginning to get the feeling that, despite predictions, forces will continue to work against us this season!

It's either the dreaded Azores High or events over USA (winter storms that usually result in them being plunged into the deep freeze) that scupper our chances of deep cold & snow into UK!

We now will probably have to wait at least another 10 days before we get our next chance of proper cold.

Edited by snowblizzard
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Just now, Banbury said:

CFS

I know mate, it does re enforce the Exeter updates and i'm expecting a cold Feb personally, fingers crossed.

PS i can see wedges on EC mean towards the end.

Chins up.. 🙂

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In my opinion there is no trend for Greenland heights but a move towards Scandi/Western based Siberian  Heights building as the trough constantly drops to our East

GEFS

image.png.fde590b8c0b5a233e669a0a9c63a6ded.png

gens_panel_xmc9.png

GEM 240Z

image.thumb.png.5607f38812a566b34dbb92d77f3e93cb.png

Navegem

image.thumb.png.830086706542b32f4f2dbcaa505f0b42.png

ECM

image.thumb.png.32cb8c49c68f03145df6d9b7bb9d1c20.png

image.thumb.png.0e4ff712171f8b3e0a14443cc22cc462.png

 

 

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