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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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14 minutes ago, Garfmort said:

Hunting for snow and cold? Hawaii Haleakala National Park Summit District is closed today not due to lava but snow!

https://www.theinertia.com/news/mauis-haleakala-national-park-summit-district-closed-due-to-snow/

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My hunt in Leicester continues...😵

Saw a video on Twitter of snow in Las Vegas yesterday 😩

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Agree CreweCold to a certain extent although in the summer months the high tended to ridge to Scandinavia a lot bringing us warm south-easterlys and decided to stop doing that in the winter of course. Been a strange winter that's for sure, not many storms or even gales. Dry and mild don't normally go together in winter as I say a strange one.

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I would love to be able to say..w o w there's a big freeze on the way but sadly I can't..instead here are some nice mild spring-like charts from the Ecm 12z to puke over!!:bad:..cheers ecm..knew you would let me down!:drinks:

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I would love to be able to say..w o w there's a big freeze on the way but sadly I can't..instead here are some nice mild spring-like charts from the Ecm 12z to puke over!!:bad:..cheers ecm..knew you would let me down!:drinks:

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Ahhh! I would kill for those charts in the summer, bit of a waste really. 😥

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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I would love to be able to say..w o w there's a big freeze on the way but sadly I can't..instead here are some nice mild spring-like charts from the Ecm 12z to puke over!!..cheers ecm..knew you would let me down!

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Don't like the look of that frosty!!  Only one thing for it

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Frosty is there any chance you could leave a note saying there’s no cold left for the incoming mild party to this thread.

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12 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Ahhh! I would kill for those charts in the summer, bit of a waste really. 😥

I wouldn’t have a problem seeing those charts in summer, but in February, no thank you!  I hope this time next year, there will be comments along the lines ‘Things are nowhere near as bad as they were this time last year!’

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57 minutes ago, Don said:

At this rate, it will be a cold start to summer.  What with the cold ever being pushed further back!e

  well it wouldn’t matter if it’s a cold start to summer as long as we get a couple of blizzard during June and July.  I see the ECMWF is up to its old tricks like most of this winter sowing hope at day nine day 10 and then when it gets to the reliable it takes it away.  😒😒🙂

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1 minute ago, syed2878 said:

I see the ECMWF is up to its old tricks like most of this winter sowing hope at day nine day 10 and then when it gets to the reliable it takes it away.  😒😒🙂

Yep, it just can’t help itself with its teases!

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ECM finishes with a tease, are we ready for another chase, after all it is the hunt for cold

 

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5 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

ECM finishes with a tease, are we ready for another chase, after all it is the hunt for cold

 

Too tired.....

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Ext EPS - you guessed it - little change - Euro ridge rules the roost!  

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Just now, mulzy said:

Ext EPS - you guessed it - little change - Euro ridge rules the roost!  

Once the Euro ridge sets up, it can stick around for an eternity!

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ECM 12z mean and op reasonably close both within the spread

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Still a chance Scotland could see something a bit cooler before months end and pretty much the same time frame with GFS 12z for a potential dip just below zero

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30 minutes ago, biggreyface said:

Frosty is there any chance you could leave a note saying there’s no cold left for the incoming mild party to this thread.

I haven't given up...on a cold start to spring😉

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11 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Ext EPS - you guessed it - little change - Euro ridge rules the roost!  

We will just have to hope the EC 46 shows something around 5th - 15th March.

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Evening all... when an attempt at a Scandi High just fails, it often leads to the worst possible situation of all for coldies as it also means low pressure cannot get though the UK to allow northern sourced air from the other side. 

In all truth, this is the usual fate of a predicted Scandi High when it is initiated from the SW against an active Atlantic. Such set ups usually fail. The Scandis that usually work come from either the Arctic or from a Mid-Atlantic ridge. 

Lessons, lessons! 

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1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, as I said a couple of weeks ago (and still hold the belief), we are ascending into an early spring.

I fear this could be a drought year in all honesty, we've seen pretty much the same pattern dominate our weather for the best part of a year now- namely a repeated nosing in of the Azores HP which is sometimes getting to our E and pumping up warm S'lys and SW'lys. 

Not sure what changes the foundations over the next few months to take us more profoundly towards a -AO/-NAO regime. Mid latitude HP is ruling the roost our side of the hemisphere. The upshot being, little rainfall and increasingly hot temperatures could be on the menu over the next few months.

Thank you for the post Crewe, although I would absolutely love snow and cold (all year round if possible) I have given up and thrown in the towel. The Winter has passed us by delivering nothing more than a one or two dozen frosts (although I believe the UK recorded its coldest temp since 2010), a week of snow (nothing substantial although for a minority did result in some of the heaviest snowfalls in a decade), and we didn't really have any 'mega' windstorms as well to compensate. If we are to get cold now which I doubt then it will have to be some potent cold, I won't stand for maxes of 3/4/5C by day and a wintry mix (That won't cut it!) I would then rather have sunshine and temps in the teens. What makes it all the more worse is the supposed 'excellent' background signals and long range model eye candy...I think we could do with a Winter 2018/19 Post Mortem Thread, I for one would have a lot to say! 👍 I hope the Met Office also do a full review into their shambolic 30 day and 3 monthly forecasts.

Having said all of that though:

As I said I believe we recorded our coldest temp since 2010 - though localised is rather impressive.                                                                                                                                Some places did receive nearly 30cm of snow, the heaviest falls of snow in a decade, which makes this Winter even more peculiar.

 

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This will do the trick, removed from car and chucked back in the garage for another season today!

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Hello folks .... The European high is not going anywhere in a hurry both models show it remaining stubborn ,and once this synoptic scenario occurs it can be with us for many days even weeks. The Atlantic tries to come in , but with little impact.  Looks like Winter is going out very gently.....😔

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10 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Thank you for the post Crewe, although I would absolutely love snow and cold (all year round if possible) I have given up and thrown in the towel. The Winter has passed us by delivering nothing more than a one or two dozen frosts (although I believe the UK recorded its coldest temp since 2010), a week of snow (nothing substantial although for a minority did result in some of the heaviest snowfalls in a decade), and we didn't really have any 'mega' windstorms as well to compensate. If we are to get cold now which I doubt then it will have to be some potent cold, I won't stand for maxes of 3/4/5C by day and a wintry mix (That won't cut it!) I would then rather have sunshine and temps in the teens. What makes it all the more worse is the supposed 'excellent' background signals and long range model eye candy...I think we could do with a Winter 2018/19 Post Mortem Thread, I for one would have a lot to say! 👍 I hope the Met Office also do a full review into their shambolic 30 day and 3 monthly forecasts.

Having said all of that though:

As I said I believe we recorded our coldest temp since 2010 - though localised is rather impressive.                                                                                                                                Some places did receive nearly 30cm of snow, the heaviest falls of snow in a decade, which makes this Winter even more peculiar.

 

The met office long range forecasts have been no far wider than the mark than most other weather organisations!! 30 day forecasts are still very much an infancy and they would admit far more work and research needs to be done. It only just goes to show how the simplest of things can throw the best of signals array. Cast yourself back to last year's BFTE, the mett were flagging it up for several weeks before the event. Pretty sure they nailed the 2010 December cold spell pretty well also. I understand where your coming from and understand your frustration, but on the evidence of things it's probably a little unfair to single them out. 

Edited by Mattwolves

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You know snow and cold chances are bad in the UK when downtown Las Vegas has more snow than the UK on a winters day in Feb. 😂

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