Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Don said:

I could say winters 1995/96 and 1996/7 were crap because I got very little snow during those years! However, that obviously wasn’t the case.  I got 10cms of snow on Feb 1st, not 25, which was a good result I admit.  Basingstoke was the sweet spot that day and had more akin to 25cm.  As I’ve said before, my winter posts are not IMBY based.  I wouldn’t call this winter a stinker due to the interest during the 2nd half of January.  The issue is, it promised so much but has delivered so little, which has made it ever more frustrating.  Add to that the model teases too!  If the background signals had always been poor i.e. a super El Niño and a strong wQBO, I would actually think we’ve done ok this year!

95/96, 96/97, legendary! want them days back

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

95/96, 96/97, legendary! want them days back

There you go!  Very frustrating for me they were.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

95/96, 96/97, legendary! want them days back

95/96 good but still nothing compared to the 80's

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

95/96 good but still nothing compared to the 80's

or Feb 1991! trouble is I don't remember 80's

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Could be right, 85/86 winter was mild December and January, but febuary ended up as the coldest month since 1963. With an average temp of - 1.1 degrees 

I do not think that January 1986 was exactly mild, it had a CET of 3.5, which is just below average.  It was colder early and late in that month but had a milder spell from about the 10th to 23rd.  Dec 1985 was as you say a mild month overall, though it still did turn colder in the week between Christmas and New Year.

 

2 minutes ago, Don said:

I could say winters 1995/96 and 1996/7 were crap because I got very little snow during those years! However, that obviously wasn’t the case.  I got 10cms of snow on Feb 1st, not 25, which was a good result I admit.  Basingstoke was the sweet spot that day and had more akin to 25cm.  As I’ve said before, my winter posts are not IMBY based.  I wouldn’t call this winter a stinker due to the interest during the 2nd half of January.  The issue is, it promised so much but has delivered so little, which has made it ever more frustrating.  Add to that the model teases too!  If the background signals had always been poor i.e. a super El Niño and a strong wQBO, I would actually think we’ve done ok this year!

The QBO switched to westerly in November and the figure for January is around +9, so winter 2018-19 has been a westerly QBO winter.  The let down is that with us almost in solar minimum and the El Nino this year only turning out to be a weak one, and the SSW in early January not setting up blocking favourably to bring a notable cold spell to our small part of the world has made this winter very disappointing in what it has delivered for most of the country.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sad state of affairs when we are left to reminisce about winters past when the 12z ECM is currently rolling. Nothing much to report on the ECM to day 5.

What a “dyer” winter it has been.

 

Edited by mulzy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I do not think that January 1986 was exactly mild, it had a CET of 3.5, which is just below average.  It was colder early and late in that month but had a milder spell from about the 10th to 23rd.  Dec 1985 was as you say a mild month overall, though it still did turn colder in the week between Christmas and New Year.

 

The QBO switched to westerly in November and the figure for January is around +9, so winter 2018-19 has been a westerly QBO winter.  The let down is that with us almost in solar minimum and the El Nino this year only turning out to be a weak one, and the SSW in early January not setting up blocking favourably to bring a notable cold spell to our small part of the world has made this winter very disappointing in what it has delivered for most of the country.

I've got verification stats on January being close to average, if we could hope for a similar outcome to 86, it would be worth pointing out that both March and April were below average, April being the coldest since 1922 with an average of 5.8 degrees, so perhaps hope for us yet. 👌

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the 12z London ens run and you can count the amount of runs going below -5 on one hand

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.46864344cf1d79c8bc031ee92f541892.png

A few more going below -5 further north but a cold end to winter looks unlikely at this stage

gefsens850Edinburgh0.thumb.png.8bf66eb23435a4591bda45f071a41d6c.pnggefsens850Newcastle0.thumb.png.ebb57a1ac9bd19881dcec6512feda620.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking at the 12z London ens run and you can count the amount of runs going below -5 on one hand

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.46864344cf1d79c8bc031ee92f541892.png

A few more going below -5 further north but a cold end to winter looks unlikely at this stage

gefsens850Edinburgh0.thumb.png.8bf66eb23435a4591bda45f071a41d6c.pnggefsens850Newcastle0.thumb.png.ebb57a1ac9bd19881dcec6512feda620.png

I would agree with that, but a cold start to spring his highly feasible. 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GEFS are now in close agreement with this morning’s EPS.  A pretty poor broadscale pattern if you want cold and snow.

Edited by mulzy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

or Feb 1991! trouble is I don't remember 80's

The trouble is I do remember the 80’s🤣🤣🤣 I wish I was young enough not to remember 😩😩

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I would agree with that, but a cold start to spring his highly feasible. 

 

 

 

 

At this rate, it will be a cold start to summer.  What with the cold ever being pushed further back!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Don said:

At this rate, it will be a cold start to summer.  What with the cold ever being pushed further back!

Surely if we keep pushing it back, we can get ready for the start of winter 19/20!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Depends on what you are seeking from a cold spell.

Chances of powdery snow, ice days, many days of lying snow is becoming increasingly unlikely, although remains possible to early March. However a snow event which may slowly thaw the next day is possible for the next 6 weeks.

After such a dreadful winter I would be happy with the latter.

Agreed! A couple of cm’s would be sufficient for me. I’ve barely seen a flake. These charts are the polar opposite to what you want to see in Feb if you like cold. What is noticeable about this winter is the persistence of a pattern once it’s established. And that’s all I can see from the output at the moment. Another benign and mild spell and possibly exceptional. I never expected to see that this winter. I have only seen a flirtation with deep cold within the model output. The favourable MJO 8 signal is not yet gaining traction. 

Edited by Stephen W

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Don said:

At this rate, it will be a cold start to summer.  What with the cold ever being pushed further back!

Yep, that's possible as well. I always say to much mild weather at this stage will bring a knock on effect come March and April. Not everyone's cup of tea I know, but colder enough uppers can still bring significant snowfall. Perhaps the hunt for cold thread should of started later this time, it feels like I have been hunting for it since November!! Ohh hang on a sec, I have! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Don said:

At this rate, it will be a cold start to summer.  What with the cold ever being pushed further back!

Surely if we keep pushing it back, we can get ready for the start of winter 19/20!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A glimmer at day 9 on the ECM?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yep, that's possible as well. I always say to much mild weather at this stage will bring a knock on effect come March and April. Not everyone's cup of tea I know, but colder enough uppers can still bring significant snowfall. Perhaps the hunt for cold thread should of started later this time, it feels like I have been hunting for it since November!! Ohh hang on a sec, I have! 

That’s just like saying because a coin has landed heads 5 times in a row, it has to be tails. There’s no corroboration between having a mild winter leading to a cold spring.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

A glimmer at day 9 on the ECM?

Atlantic has hit the wall..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An opening at day 9 and 10 on the ECM with more energy heading se and a ridge extending further ne .

Whether it survives till tomorrow morning is another question !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Another one!?😀

just say it the bartlett converybelt😀

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yep, that's possible as well. I always say to much mild weather at this stage will bring a knock on effect come March and April. Not everyone's cup of tea I know, but colder enough uppers can still bring significant snowfall. Perhaps the hunt for cold thread should of started later this time, it feels like I have been hunting for it since November!! Ohh hang on a sec, I have! 

That’s just like saying because a coin has landed heads 5 times in a row, it has to be tails. There’s no corroboration between having a mild winter leading to a cold spring.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM T240 clear mid latitude block, and that's fine at that range as it could always upgrade in later runs

image.thumb.jpg.bb2b899b6cfc28d23e759703dc846237.jpg

Of much more interest is the FV3 at same time, which shows the potential for undercutting small areas of low pressure, will be interested to see how this run goes from here - it's taking an age tonight!

image.thumb.jpg.b5c90498f13b9cbeaf78bb3235cf4290.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

An opening at day 9 and 10 on the ECM with more energy heading se and a ridge extending further ne .

Whether it survives till tomorrow morning is another question !

Looks like the METO update earlier Nick- 'HP to the North/north east and the Atlantic moving in with snow to high ground and lower levels'..

As you say, we need to see some continuation of this in the morning..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...