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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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So we end up with cold uppers in the central Atlantic, and cold uppers a million miles east!! With the UK in the middle of no where. Surely the models should be latching onto something by now, patience is wearing thin. 🤔

gfs-1-324 (1).png

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35 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

February very rarely delivers, I mean I’m only in my twenties but down here I think I can only think or one or 2 proper snow falls in February, even March has more. Quite often an anticyclonic month if my memory serves me.

Nothing much to talk about amongst the models this afternoon, very poor output if any sustained cold is what you’re after, hopefully the CFS has something at 750 hours for us lol 😂 

Where are you? Some of the most notable snowfalls in Sussex during the 1980s came in the last week of February,think in 1986 we had a heavy fall of snow at the back end of a freeze on the 1st March.

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If ever we needed a good EPS / 46 it is tonight, after the poor GEFS suite.

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5 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Where are you? Some of the most notable snowfalls in Sussex during the 1980s came in the last week of February,think in 1986 we had a heavy fall of snow at the back end of a freeze on the 1st March.

Could be right, 85/86 winter was mild December and January, but febuary ended up as the coldest month since 1963. With an average temp of - 1.1 degrees 

Edited by Mattwolves

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If ever we needed a good EPS / 46 it is tonight, after the poor GEFS suite.

I'm thinking we probably won't but we'll see.  This winter is getting right under my skin now!  Sadly, I think we all know deep down it's a lost cause now.

Edited by Don

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6 minutes ago, Don said:

I'm thinking we probably won't but we'll see.  This winter is getting right under my skin now!  Sadly, I think we all know deep down it's a lost cause now.

I know we've been through this, but if I had 25cms of snow, I certainly wouldn't be saying that! max depth here around 18cms in the m/e (20 winters or so)

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I know we've been through this, but if I had 25cms of snow, I certainly wouldn't be saying that! max depth here around 18cms in the m/e (20 winters or so)

Oh come on Ian leave the christmas pudding out of it for goodness sake!

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I’ve got a straw to share if anyone wants to clutch it with me 🤔

8149D25F-A7E8-48D9-8CAC-F01C0DFD5264.jpeg

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20 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

So we end up with cold uppers in the central Atlantic, and cold uppers a million miles east!! With the UK in the middle of no where. Surely the models should be latching onto something by now, patience is wearing thin. 🤔

gfs-1-324 (1).png

I swear that green thing is laughing at us!

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16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If ever we needed a good EPS / 46 it is tonight, after the poor GEFS suite.

At this point I'm thinking - does it really mean anything if we do get a good one or not?

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Well, since there are no cold charts to post..come on, who ordered the Gfs 12z blowtorch!!!..lol, this winter is beyond a joke now:gathering:

12_264_mslp850.png

12_288_uk2mtmp.png

12_288_mslp850.png

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17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If ever we needed a good EPS / 46 it is tonight, after the poor GEFS suite.

We had great EC46 for ages and look what happened!

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Just now, snowblind said:

I swear that green thing is laughing at us!

Most definitely, seems to be shaped like some kind of prehistoric dinasaur as well, perhaps its trying to say this cold snap potential is extinct 😉

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2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

At this point I'm thinking - does it really mean anything if we do get a good one or not?

 

Just now, Djdazzle said:

We had great EC46 for ages and look what happened!

I would still rather have the modelling favourable than not, no matter how the models have been performing or peoples perceptions of their performance, because you can bet your bottom dollar, as soon as they go flat, they will start verifying better.

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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well, since there are no cold charts to post..come on, who ordered the Gfs 12z blowtorch!!!..lol, this winter is beyond a joke now

12_264_mslp850.png

12_288_uk2mtmp.png

12_288_mslp850.png

In summer that would be a 20 degree 850hpa plume with temps of 35 degrees!!!!what a waste😡😡

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24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If ever we needed a good EPS / 46 it is tonight, after the poor GEFS suite.

Why are you holding onto a vague hope. The met office coudk see mild was on the cards and they have jumped. Onto it big time. 

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

I would still rather have the modelling favourable than not, no matter how the models have been performing or peoples perceptions of their performance, because you can bet your bottom dollar, as soon as they go flat, they will start verifying better.

The GFS parallel nailed the very cold outbreak here in Western Canada consistently from 384 hrs out and never wavered although all others did

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6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Most definitely, seems to be shaped like some kind of prehistoric dinasaur as well, perhaps its trying to say this cold snap potential is extinct 😉

Were it blue, it'd look like Puff The Magic Dragon?😀

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Not sure if this has been posted as I have only just been able to view the output. Loving this from the control😄😄

F05E408E-DAC8-405F-8748-3E547608FEF4.png

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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

In summer that would be a 20 degree 850hpa plume with temps of 35 degrees!!!!what a waste😡😡

FI chart but biggest waste ever, best time for that would be April, early taste of summer late 20's

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The priest is about to deliver the last rites but the coldies surrounding the very sick MJO implore the medics to not switch off the machine !

The GFS delivers a dire 12 hrs run after a brief flirtation with something better earlier.

The only reason I haven’t thrown the towel in yet is to see whether the MJO into phase 8 will make a difference to the model crud we’ve been subjected to for the last week.

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Were it blue, it'd look like Puff The Magic Dragon?😀

So its basically saying the chances of this cold snap are going up in smoke! 😉

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1 minute ago, TEITS said:

Depends on what you are seeking from a cold spell.

Chances of powdery snow, ice days, many days of lying snow is becoming increasingly unlikely, although remains possible to early March. However a snow event which may slowly thaw the next day is possible for the next 6 weeks.

After such a dreadful winter I would be happy with the latter.

I would certainly rather have a heavy fall that's gone within 48 hours than a couple of inches that lasts for 2 weeks, hence why you see me being a pain in the ass on here right up until Early April sometimes, and people then hunting for heat and storms think i am on a wind up but im not.

 

archivesnh-1981-4-25-0-0.png

A foot of snow quite widely and a right dumping even for Central Southern England.

 

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10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I know we've been through this, but if I had 25cms of snow, I certainly wouldn't be saying that! max depth here around 18cms in the m/e (20 winters or so)

I could say winters 1995/96 and 1996/7 were crap because I got very little snow during those years! However, that obviously wasn’t the case.  I got 10cms of snow on Feb 1st, not 25, which was a good result I admit.  Basingstoke was the sweet spot that day and had more akin to 25cm.  As I’ve said before, my winter posts are not IMBY based.  I wouldn’t call this winter a stinker due to the interest during the 2nd half of January.  The issue is, it promised so much but has delivered so little, which has made it ever more frustrating.  Add to that the model teases too!  If the background signals had always been poor i.e. a super El Niño and a strong wQBO, I would actually think we’ve done ok this year!

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