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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think the Fohn effect might have something to say about that?

Pretty sure the models take that into affect I've seen it plenty of times.
gfs-0-126.png?6 gfs-1-126.png?6

Looks pretty sluggish to me not 

Warm air looks to the south away from the high areas need for the affect

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45 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

where are you getting that from

132-582UK.GIF?11-6

 

Remember its already 11c in the SW...under 850hpa temperatures of 0c roughly. By Friday we are upto 6-8c widely. So no reason why we can't add at LEAST 3-4c at the surface based on that...Then you have Fohn effect and your getting mighty close to daily records.

I don't think we will get there, though Saturday is possible, but I think your badly underdoing the potential here.

Expect thlose highs to nudge up further as we head towards Friday.

PS - high resolution GFS has 14c for N.Wales on Friday. As I said, maxes typically underdone in this set-up, so probably add 1-2c again. Probably will get a local 17c based on that 06z GFS.

Edited by kold weather

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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's a four-day mean, it's not a daily forecast...

I know what it is, that's why i used the word on average, but you are right it is a pointless response to the question of a model showing a temp of 15.

Icon also shows temps falling short of the 15 prediction, not even hitting 12 (now high res available for saturday)
ICOOPEU00_132_5.png
 

GEMOPUK00_132_5.png
GEM hits 13 but then its the GEM

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

I know what it is, that's why i used the word on average, but you are right it is a pointless response to the question of a model showing a temp of 15.

Icon also shows temps falling short of the 15 prediction, not even hitting 12 (now high res available for saturday

 

You seriously telling me that under a 5-7c WARMER true subtropical SSW airflow at ALL levels that we aren't going to be more than 1c above where we are today in the SW for maxes...hmmmm...I'd say 15c is FAR more likely than 11c, lets put it that way...

Edited by kold weather

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I still recall being mocked, for suggesting temps of 15, in January 2003...I think it got to 18, somewhere near Aberdeen (Aboyne?)...Don't underestimate the Fohn effect...?🤓

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3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

I know what it is, that's why i used the word on average, but you are right it is a pointless response to the question of a model showing a temp of 15.

Icon also shows temps falling short of the 15 prediction, not even hitting 12 (now high res available for saturday)
ICOOPEU00_132_5.png
 

GEMOPUK00_132_5.png
GEM hits 13 but then its the GEM

it actually shows 14c so a 15c in a favoured spot would be reasonable proposition

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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Remember its already 11c in the SW...under 850hpa temperatures of 0c roughly. By Friday we are upto 6-8c widely. So no reason why we can't add at LEAST 3-4c at the surface based on that...Then you have Fohn effect and your getting mighty close to daily records.

I don't think we will get there, though Saturday is possible, but I think your badly underdoing the potential here.

Expect thlose highs to nudge up further as we head towards Friday.

PS - high resolution GFS has 14c for N.Wales on Friday. As I said, maxes typically underdone in this set-up, so probably add 1-2c again. Probably will get a local 17c based on that 06z GFS.

Saturday was under discussion but thanks for bringing some model related chat to the model thread.

The south west will be very prone to temp rises being surrounded by the sea and the first are to receive the warmer sourced air

GFSOPUK06_3_2.png Temps above zero in the south west

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6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Saturday was under discussion but thanks for bringing some model related chat to the model thread.

The south west will be very prone to temp rises being surrounded by the sea and the first are to receive the warmer sourced air

GFSOPUK06_3_2.png Temps above zero in the south west

Saturday looks post best warmth to me I agree, but sometimes the day after also can be mild simply as an aftereffect of milder night before hand.

That may be THE limiting factor, how cold we can go over night and how much it has to rebound.

As you say the SW is more prone, but the point still stands, the air is far more milder throughout the entire atmospheric column on Friday (maybe in the east on Saturday as well....maybe!) and I think the models will do what they've done today, and have to increase their temperature forecasts on the day. I think 6-7c was widely forecasted today and 8-9c looking more realistic.

Any 16c+ will be localised, not talking widespread obviously, but 12-14c widespread on Friday doesn't seem that unrealistic, maybe dropping in the west for Saturday. I'm struggling to find many set-ups in history quite so primed for very mild air at this point in the year.

PS - remember the heatwaves last year, the models would often go for say 27-29c, but as we drew closer to the time the temps would rise to 31-33c, etc. This is effectively the February version of that in terms of potential for mild set-up. May just lack the sustainability to push records, but worth watching. Mean records will almost certainly NOT happen due to the colder nights.

Edited by kold weather

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I have removed some posts. Please stay on topic and please be respectful to each other. Thank you.

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Exeter still signposting an undercutting scenario i see.

HP to the N/NE with Atlantic systems moving in with snow to high ground and perhaps low levels..

I'm hopeful things may look much rosier in the garden in the coming days wrt NWP.

Edited by northwestsnow

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20 minutes ago, kold weather said:

You seriously telling me that under a 5-7c WARMER true subtropical SSW airflow at ALL levels that we aren't going to be more than 1c above where we are today in the SW for maxes...hmmmm...I'd say 15c is FAR more likely than 11c, lets put it that way...

Sorry but my reply wasn't to you so I'm not telling you anything.

My point is that this thread is for model output discussion and at this time no model shows 15 being reached on Saturday, i appreciate the use of models and knowledge to explain why this may be the case, i have even stated that the models can still change to show thes temps being reached so i am not ruling anything out. Maybe Summer sun should have put some backup to his claim that he already made once before, or better yet stuck to the spring thread for those that want the warm weather where model discussion is not required.

 

Edited by Blessed Weather
Unwarranted remark removed.

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10 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Sorry but my reply wasn't to you so I'm not telling you anything, you need to wind your neck in.

My point is that this thread is for model output discussion and at this time no model shows 15 being reached on Saturday, i appreciate the use of models and knowledge to explain why this may be the case, i have even stated that the models can still change to show thes temps being reached so i am not ruling anything out. Maybe Summer sun should have put some backup to his claim that he already made once before, or better yet stuck to the spring thread for those that want the warm weather where model discussion is not required.

 

In all fairness the ECM is showing 15c locally for Friday and 14c locally for Saturday, nothing widespread, but its not too far away from 15c even on Saturday, but the front is more progressive on the GFS so that may not happen.

Anyway I was just saying that what people are saying is not that unrealistic BASED on the models we are seeing, using a small amount of model interpretation and knowing the models biases which I feel isn't that outrageous for this thread.

 

Edited by kold weather

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23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Exeter still signposting an undercutting scenario i see.

HP to the N/NE with Atlantic systems moving in with snow to high ground and perhaps low levels..

I'm hopeful things may look much rosier in the garden in the coming days wrt NWP.

That's more like it, a bit of optimism. Which is not beyond the realms of possibility 

Edited by Mattwolves

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Well, at least the background signals are still looking ppppotentially good as we go into early spring!👍😃

For what may I ask?

😂

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Not to derail the thread - genuine question.

Is there a model thread for what the models are actually showing?

90 percent of the posts in here are for cold charts 3000 hours away. If the models are showing mild, the impression I'm getting is you aren't allowed to post them for whatever reason?

 

Sorry, as a noob and casual reader, I'm finding it pretty confusing right now.

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1 minute ago, Azazel said:

Not to derail the thread - genuine question.

Is there a model thread for what the models are actually showing?

90 percent of the posts in here are for cold charts 3000 hours away. If the models are showing mild, the impression I'm getting is you aren't allowed to post them for whatever reason?

 

Sorry, as a noob and casual reader, I'm finding it pretty confusing right now.

Yes, Focused model discussion thread.

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25 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Sorry but my reply wasn't to you so I'm not telling you anything.

My point is that this thread is for model output discussion and at this time no model shows 15 being reached on Saturday, i appreciate the use of models and knowledge to explain why this may be the case, i have even stated that the models can still change to show thes temps being reached so i am not ruling anything out. Maybe Summer sun should have put some backup to his claim that he already made once before, or better yet stuck to the spring thread for those that want the warm weather where model discussion is not required.

 

Summer Sun is one of the most consistent posters in the model thread, his posts nearly always contain charts and useful information.   Summer sun will still be making contributions in the model thread when most of us have packed in for the summer, the idea that he cant mention warm temperatures is laughable. 

 

At some point the title of the forum will change to something about spring......will every poster mentioning cold charts be told to go somewhere else then?    

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, Focused model discussion thread.

No worries, thank you for clarifying.

Does anyone know if there will be a "heat hunt - models and chat thread" come March/April?

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6 minutes ago, Azazel said:

No worries, thank you for clarifying.

Does anyone know if there will be a "heat hunt - models and chat thread" come March/April?

Doubt it, there would be tumbleweed blowing through it...

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2 minutes ago, Azazel said:

No worries, thank you for clarifying.

Does anyone know if there will be a "heat hunt - models and chat thread" come March/April?

Probably not, because there is not the demand in summer, so the regular model thread won't move too quickly for people who just want to get a handle on what the models are showing, so detailed and technical posts don't get lost, plus the stalwarts of the thread like Knocker, John Holmes etc prefer heat to cold in summer so there isn't the split in the summer that there is in the winter, i prefer cold all the year around but realised that posting Northerlies at 384 in summer, you are not welcome so i just wait until late September or October to come back on the forum again.

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1 minute ago, Azazel said:

No worries, thank you for clarifying.

Does anyone know if there will be a "heat hunt - models and chat thread" come March/April?

A new thread with an appropriate title will start in due course as we move into Spring. But "heat hunt" might be a bit too optimistic for a while longer! :oldsmile:

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Well I think originally it was divided due to wanting to have a more banter thread and a more detailed one as during cold spells great posts get flooded by lots of wow like that comments.

I not a fan of the name of this thread though, makes it feel like if you want to make a quick comment but don't necessarily have knowledge to go too in-depth as per the focused thread then your not welcome, some members have even outright said this before. Plus it can cause this thread to become a hug box leading to people over ramping, then being disappointed when it doesn't happen.

PS, sorry if this is too off topic for this thread!

 

Edited by kold weather

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23 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Sorry but my reply wasn't to you so I'm not telling you anything.

My point is that this thread is for model output discussion and at this time no model shows 15 being reached on Saturday, i appreciate the use of models and knowledge to explain why this may be the case, i have even stated that the models can still change to show thes temps being reached so i am not ruling anything out. Maybe Summer sun should have put some backup to his claim that he already made once before, or better yet stuck to the spring thread for those that want the warm weather where model discussion is not required.

 

You have to bear in mind that it is not unusual for GFS underestimate maximum temperatures to the lee of high ground in the west, as the model vertical resolution may not pick up the air warming to the lee of mountains as air dries out and descends (i.e. the Foehn effect) - limitations of the grid points the model uses to show temperatures may not pick up local quirks and variations in temperatures caused by the foehn effect, simply because it doesn't use enough grid points. 

The higher resolution 00z ECM is showing, at noon Friday, 14-15 C across NE Wales/NW Cheshire plain to the north of the Snowdonia mountains, also pockets of mid-teens across Devon and west Wales in lee of high ground. Can't post the paywall chart unfortunately.

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6 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

A new thread with an appropriate title will start in due course as we move into Spring. But "heat hunt" might be a bit too optimistic for a while longer! :oldsmile:

Bit like a cold hunt in winter.

Bit optimistic😁

C.S

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