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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm tempted to stay up for the 00z..on second thoughts..nah

That's hardcore frosty, I like your style. One of these days we will build on the 18s, rather than the usual bloody downgrades, must admit though, I'm surprised by how early it's brought the colder air in 👌

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

I wouldn't take precipitation charts at 7 days as gospel though Don, if we can get the cold in, snow will crop up just about anywhere 

Oh I know, I was joking.  Shame it will probably revert back to dross for the 00Z....

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1 minute ago, Don said:

Oh I know, I was joking.  Shame it will probably revert back to dross for the 00Z....

Hey Don, keep that towel on hold. Its coming.......... 😂

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So winter might be over if the charts are to be believed. I got the impression from the 18z GFS that it was low pressure followed by a ridge Sly winds toppler rinse and repeat.  Not sure what to think other than the SSW got the wrong continent and it isn't happening for us this year. 

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Hey Don, keep that towel on hold. Its coming.......... 😂

Towel going nowhere.  I have faith 👍

 

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8 minutes ago, E17boy said:

APPOLOGY LETTER FROM WINTER

dear customers I am writing this to apologise for the utterly bad service that I have provided to you since November which is now llikely to last for the rest of the contract period untill next season.

we promised that the coverage of cold will be much better as we had installed a new MJO device and a SSW  heater to boost the reception, however these proved unhelpful.

I know we kept sending you updates of our engineering work and our gfs crew kept on stating that the progress signals all kept on pointing to a 10 or 16 day period where all clients will have the full benefit of our freeze service. Again this did not happen and we had to sit back and read all the comments from dishearted customers.

saying this we did manage to squeeze in a few good days where some postcodes benefited from the cold and transmition of snow was successful. 

On top of all this it is with regret to inform you that the administrators have been called in now and the pressure has become high and will be Hard to shift further North to our competitirs for us to benefit. It's highly likely that a new director called SPRING will take over and put even more heat on the fire.

It's not been a good season but we will do everything in our hands to find out why it went all wrong. We do hope to be rescued and come back next season when it's our turn again and provide a better service. 

Appologied again for all the wet towels that have been left. 

Yours WINTER

PS, we hope that in the short term at least, our gfs 18z will serve to make you feel better, at least until  the 0z morning run. 

Kind regards 👍

Edited by Mattwolves

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That was just as crap, good amplification at the end but too far East, decent cold pool to the East but thousands of miles to the East.

Oh well.  Those ECM ensembles do look pretty grim. I’m still hoping for a last minute flip......

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9 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh well.  Those ECM ensembles do look pretty grim. I’m still hoping for a last minute flip......

image.thumb.png.d718e8e9e8756271c4a9c2b5b0e76903.png

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.d718e8e9e8756271c4a9c2b5b0e76903.png

Looks like the results I had from my ecg the other week, a complete dog's body 🙄

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25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.cd318f1570d993a7f8bc0d0fe816c4e8.png

These get more and more hideous with every run.

 

Yes it's screaming sunburn 

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8 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Yes it's screaming sunburn 

More like flooding. Awful gfs p 18z, loads of rain suddenly appearing for next weekend. And gales too. 

Seems that the high pressure won't be able to hold back the raging Atlantic storms.

What really annoys me is that during cold spells eastern Scotland turns into the desert, not even the heaviest showers manage to move in from the west and north. But when it's mild enough, suddenly there is nothing stopping the lashing rain from moving in

gfs-2-162.png

Edited by edinburgh_1992

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14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.d718e8e9e8756271c4a9c2b5b0e76903.png

Computer says no 🙁

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I still think turning a lot colder at the end of the month and into March with more northern blocking starting to turn up, repeat of last March? Well not as extreme maybe but yes I'm going for a cold March.;)

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Hey Don, keep that towel on hold. Its coming.......... 😂

  now where have I heard that before it’s coming well it’s been coming since November.  had any of this materialise the outcome would have been so different sometimes some things are just not meant to be and winter 2018 2019 was one of those it wasn’t to be for the UK  as for the towels I have thrown mine in the ring for this season I will pick it back up in November and prepare my self for a another four or five months of torture.

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2 hours ago, Don said:

Oh well.  Those ECM ensembles do look pretty grim. I’m still hoping for a last minute flip......

Still think they will flip. You don't get all that warm air pushing into the Pole with no payback. It might take us a full revolution of the PFJ wavefront (to feb 25th) but I think we'll hit the paydirt on the next go-around. Atlantic/UK blocking won't do us any favours with cold air aloft until cross-pole flow around 240, but the surface cold under high pressure might help to season the ground. Can't see us hitting spring without a MAJOR cold incursion beforehand. 

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19 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

  now where have I heard that before it’s coming well it’s been coming since November.  had any of this materialise the outcome would have been so different sometimes some things are just not meant to be and winter 2018 2019 was one of those it wasn’t to be for the UK  as for the towels I have thrown mine in the ring for this season I will pick it back up in November and prepare my self for a another four or five months of torture.

Fair points but I do wonder whether you would have thrown it in if last week's event had been 150 miles further north. Still all to play for, for a couple of weeks plus model lead time. The weather patterns are a bit bizarre this season but I think our Winter has a sting the tail.

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3 hours ago, sunnijim said:

The only glimmer I can find in recent operational runs, in a last ditch search for cold, is an easing of the Euro High around the 19th, what follows looks like being either a feeble low to our West,or a renued surge of High pressure from somewhere other than the NW or NE.

The only hope I can find in the output is that small window of uncertainty, there would be a little time for something decent to evolve (26th February onward into early March)

Based on pre pub run output!

Hi sunnijim, think I remember you from met monkey days! I always look to these times of poor model outlook as slack, col-like periods. Things are about to kick off. Net migration north of warmth and no notable mid-latitude surface cold in Europe makes me think this year will be a late one. Maybe a dud one for cold but still time.

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5 hours ago, snowray said:

I still think turning a lot colder at the end of the month and into March with more northern blocking starting to turn up, repeat of last March? Well not as extreme maybe but yes I'm going for a cold March.

I guess a stopped clock is right twice a day....

00z runs holding zero promise in my eyes. Once this weeks mildness is blown away it looks like a return to wind and rain. Nothing to whet the appetite in this busted flush of a winter.

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3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I guess most have given up, not me.👍

34C200A8-5666-4E8F-A7BD-604DCE32F07A.png

I've certainly given up for Winter. Maybe a cold Spring but Winter is assuredly over for cold and snow.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I guess most have given up, not me.👍

34C200A8-5666-4E8F-A7BD-604DCE32F07A.png

Not sure that would stop me from giving up:

anim_dku4.gif

Looking like a potentially mild end to Feb for the south!

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GFSP says hold my beer, we are not done with Winter just yet

gfsnh-0-348_tus7.png

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