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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, Don said:

Oh I know, I was joking.  Shame it will probably revert back to dross for the 00Z....

Hey Don, keep that towel on hold. Its coming..........

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Ladyofthestorm Aficionado

Ladyofthestorm

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
Posted

So winter might be over if the charts are to be believed. I got the impression from the 18z GFS that it was low pressure followed by a ridge Sly winds toppler rinse and repeat.  Not sure what to think other than the SSW got the wrong continent and it isn't happening for us this year. 

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Hey Don, keep that towel on hold. Its coming..........

Towel going nowhere.  I have faith

 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, E17boy said:

APPOLOGY LETTER FROM WINTER

dear customers I am writing this to apologise for the utterly bad service that I have provided to you since November which is now llikely to last for the rest of the contract period untill next season.

we promised that the coverage of cold will be much better as we had installed a new MJO device and a SSW  heater to boost the reception, however these proved unhelpful.

I know we kept sending you updates of our engineering work and our gfs crew kept on stating that the progress signals all kept on pointing to a 10 or 16 day period where all clients will have the full benefit of our freeze service. Again this did not happen and we had to sit back and read all the comments from dishearted customers.

saying this we did manage to squeeze in a few good days where some postcodes benefited from the cold and transmition of snow was successful. 

On top of all this it is with regret to inform you that the administrators have been called in now and the pressure has become high and will be Hard to shift further North to our competitirs for us to benefit. It's highly likely that a new director called SPRING will take over and put even more heat on the fire.

It's not been a good season but we will do everything in our hands to find out why it went all wrong. We do hope to be rescued and come back next season when it's our turn again and provide a better service. 

Appologied again for all the wet towels that have been left. 

Yours WINTER

PS, we hope that in the short term at least, our gfs 18z will serve to make you feel better, at least until  the 0z morning run. 

Kind regards

Edited by Mattwolves
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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That was just as crap, good amplification at the end but too far East, decent cold pool to the East but thousands of miles to the East.

Oh well.  Those ECM ensembles do look pretty grim. I’m still hoping for a last minute flip......

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
9 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh well.  Those ECM ensembles do look pretty grim. I’m still hoping for a last minute flip......

image.thumb.png.d718e8e9e8756271c4a9c2b5b0e76903.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.d718e8e9e8756271c4a9c2b5b0e76903.png

Looks like the results I had from my ecg the other week, a complete dog's body

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edinburgh_1992 Community Regular

edinburgh_1992

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Yes it's screaming sunburn 

More like flooding. Awful gfs p 18z, loads of rain suddenly appearing for next weekend. And gales too. 

Seems that the high pressure won't be able to hold back the raging Atlantic storms.

What really annoys me is that during cold spells eastern Scotland turns into the desert, not even the heaviest showers manage to move in from the west and north. But when it's mild enough, suddenly there is nothing stopping the lashing rain from moving in

gfs-2-162.png

Edited by edinburgh_1992
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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

I still think turning a lot colder at the end of the month and into March with more northern blocking starting to turn up, repeat of last March? Well not as extreme maybe but yes I'm going for a cold March.;)

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syed2878 Rising Star

syed2878

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
Posted
1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Hey Don, keep that towel on hold. Its coming..........

  now where have I heard that before it’s coming well it’s been coming since November.  had any of this materialise the outcome would have been so different sometimes some things are just not meant to be and winter 2018 2019 was one of those it wasn’t to be for the UK  as for the towels I have thrown mine in the ring for this season I will pick it back up in November and prepare my self for a another four or five months of torture.

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted
2 hours ago, Don said:

Oh well.  Those ECM ensembles do look pretty grim. I’m still hoping for a last minute flip......

Still think they will flip. You don't get all that warm air pushing into the Pole with no payback. It might take us a full revolution of the PFJ wavefront (to feb 25th) but I think we'll hit the paydirt on the next go-around. Atlantic/UK blocking won't do us any favours with cold air aloft until cross-pole flow around 240, but the surface cold under high pressure might help to season the ground. Can't see us hitting spring without a MAJOR cold incursion beforehand. 

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted
19 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

  now where have I heard that before it’s coming well it’s been coming since November.  had any of this materialise the outcome would have been so different sometimes some things are just not meant to be and winter 2018 2019 was one of those it wasn’t to be for the UK  as for the towels I have thrown mine in the ring for this season I will pick it back up in November and prepare my self for a another four or five months of torture.

Fair points but I do wonder whether you would have thrown it in if last week's event had been 150 miles further north. Still all to play for, for a couple of weeks plus model lead time. The weather patterns are a bit bizarre this season but I think our Winter has a sting the tail.

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted
3 hours ago, sunnijim said:

The only glimmer I can find in recent operational runs, in a last ditch search for cold, is an easing of the Euro High around the 19th, what follows looks like being either a feeble low to our West,or a renued surge of High pressure from somewhere other than the NW or NE.

The only hope I can find in the output is that small window of uncertainty, there would be a little time for something decent to evolve (26th February onward into early March)

Based on pre pub run output!

Hi sunnijim, think I remember you from met monkey days! I always look to these times of poor model outlook as slack, col-like periods. Things are about to kick off. Net migration north of warmth and no notable mid-latitude surface cold in Europe makes me think this year will be a late one. Maybe a dud one for cold but still time.

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icykev Aficionado

icykev

Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
Posted

Ecm looking interested

Screenshot_2019-02-11-06-39-15.thumb.png.bfb12cabd1f2060792b5c73c9ff585d6.png

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
5 hours ago, snowray said:

I still think turning a lot colder at the end of the month and into March with more northern blocking starting to turn up, repeat of last March? Well not as extreme maybe but yes I'm going for a cold March.

I guess a stopped clock is right twice a day....

00z runs holding zero promise in my eyes. Once this weeks mildness is blown away it looks like a return to wind and rain. Nothing to whet the appetite in this busted flush of a winter.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

I guess most have given up, not me.

34C200A8-5666-4E8F-A7BD-604DCE32F07A.png

BA97308E-C704-438E-A485-1DAB067CD7CF.png

Edited by That ECM
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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I guess most have given up, not me.

34C200A8-5666-4E8F-A7BD-604DCE32F07A.png

I've certainly given up for Winter. Maybe a cold Spring but Winter is assuredly over for cold and snow.

 

 

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I guess most have given up, not me.

34C200A8-5666-4E8F-A7BD-604DCE32F07A.png

Not sure that would stop me from giving up:

anim_dku4.gif

Looking like a potentially mild end to Feb for the south!

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Blizzardof82 Community Regular

Blizzardof82

Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
Posted

GFSP says hold my beer, we are not done with Winter just yet

gfsnh-0-348_tus7.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
3 minutes ago, IDO said:

Not sure that would stop me from giving up:

anim_dku4.gif

Looking like a potentially mild end to Feb for the south!

End of feb is 17 days away. It might not end up cold but it’s 17 days away

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
Just now, Blizzardof82 said:

GFSP says hold my beer, we are not done with Winter just yet

gfsnh-0-348_tus7.png

Indeed, and not too dissimilar to the 18z run 

EADFD93A-D00C-4C4F-B437-DBB37406B6AA.png

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