Cold hunt - models and chat

[Thundery wintry showers]

ENSO has behaved much as forecast prior to the winter as far as I can see, with indices between +0.5 and +1.0.  When I looked at the ENSO analogues back in November 2018 it seemed that a transition from neutral to weakly positive (+0.5-1.0) heading into the winter months was more strongly correlated with reduced westerlies and northern blocking in February than a strong El Nino (strong El Nino winters have included the exceptionally warm February of 1998 and the fairly warm one in 2016, as well as the cold north-easterly February of 1983). 

But indeed, for whatever reasons the atmospheric circulation has not followed suit this year, despite that plus the favourable SSW and MJO signals that Nick F referred to. 

I still see a bit of potential for something colder from the east arriving during the latter part of February but the odds against something that could bring widespread snowfall is increasing - a moderately cold south-easterly at this time of year would be more likely to bring predominantly dry cloudy weather to the east and sunshine to sheltered western areas.

Edited February 10, 2019 by Thundery wintry showers

[Mike Poole]

14 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Lol anybody else think that all the deep oranges are a little extreme? I mean we are talking temperatures of between like 7-11c but looking at them you would think we are about to get some summer weather 

Yes does look daft doesn't it, but I'm not going to criticise anyone's choice of chart websites.  Once you've learned to read one interpretation, people rarely change and become wedded to their chosen website!  I find the output from some sites totally unintuitive, which is a shame because some of the posters that use charts that don't speak to me have a lot to say.  As you will  know if you read my posts, I swear by Meteociel, never knowingly undercoloured!  Great use of colour, makes them easier to read and really highlights extreme weather.

Edited February 10, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes does look daft doesn't it, but I'm not going to criticise anyone's choice of chart websites.  Once you've learned to read one interpretation, people rarely change and become wedded to their chosen website!  

If that was aimed at my choice of charts, I actually also use Meteociel!

[Mike Poole]

10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

If that was aimed at my choice of charts, I actually also use Meteociel!

No wasn't aimed at anyone, Frosty!  Quite the opposite, the point was each to his/her own, I think! Just responding to the comment on the summery colours, I think the variety of charts posted is a good thing, as different people prefer different presentations.

Edited February 10, 2019 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

42 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Lol anybody else think that all the deep oranges are a little extreme? I mean we are talking temperatures of between like 7-11c but looking at them you would think we are about to get some summer weather 

As Dan Corbett used to say, it looks like a load of kids have attacked it with a paintbrush set

[Frosty.]

Just over 1 week away the Gfs 18z shows this!!..what could possibly go wrong!!!

Edited February 10, 2019 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

Pub run, similar re amplification looking to the north, but at T204 look at the trough digging into Europe compared to the 12z at T210, 18z first:

Just no point analysing charts beyond this, given the large uncertainty, but it gives an idea what to look for in the next few suites of runs.

Edited February 10, 2019 by Mike Poole

[alexisj9]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Just over 1 week away the Gfs 18z shows this!!..what could possibly go wrong!!!

May be the flip is finally starting, although I would prefer it a wee bit earlier lol.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Much more interesting from the 18z, alas we have colder uppers appearing 

[sunnijim]

The only glimmer I can find in recent operational runs, in a last ditch search for cold, is an easing of the Euro High around the 19th, what follows looks like being either a feeble low to our West,or a renued surge of High pressure from somewhere other than the NW or NE.

The only hope I can find in the output is that small window of uncertainty, there would be a little time for something decent to evolve (26th February onward into early March)

Based on pre pub run output!

Edited February 10, 2019 by sunnijim
Just seen the 18z!

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Much more interesting from the 18z, alas we have colder uppers appearing 

The cold hunt is back on..at least until the 00z!!

Edited February 10, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

May be the flip is finally starting, although I would prefer it a wee bit earlier lol.

Seems to lose its way at the backend of the run, but tbh I think all the models do beyond day 10. It's a starting point that we need to build on, let's see if the 0zs build upon it 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

The cold hunt is back on..at least until the 00z!!

Yes frosty you literally took the words from my mouth

[Lampostwatcher]

A glimmer of hope 18z

Game back on :j-)

expect to see 387 members online by the 6z

Edited February 10, 2019 by Lampostwatcher

[snowfish1]

23 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Just over 1 week away the Gfs 18z shows this!!..what could possibly go wrong!!!

Oh some twisted fate of some sort or another will spring up and f it up

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, snowfish1 said:

Oh some twisted fate of some sort or another will spring up and f it up

Give us at least 10 minutes to saviour it though!!

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Give us at least 10 minutes to saviour it though!!

I'm tempted to stay up for the 00z..on second thoughts..nah

[Don]

33 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Just over 1 week away the Gfs 18z shows this!!..what could possibly go wrong!!!

Nah crap, rain for me!  I would rather have mild and dry

[feb1991blizzard]

These get more and more hideous with every run.

 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

These get more and more hideous with every run.

 

Stop it, let us enjoy the pub run!

Edited February 10, 2019 by Don

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Nah crap, rain for me!  I would rather have mild and dry

I wouldn't take precipitation charts at 7 days as gospel though Don, if we can get the cold in, snow will crop up just about anywhere 

[E17boy]

APPOLOGY LETTER FROM WINTER

dear customers I am writing this to apologise for the utterly bad service that I have provided to you since November which is now llikely to last for the rest of the contract period untill next season.

we promised that the coverage of cold will be much better as we had installed a new MJO device and a SSW  heater to boost the reception, however these proved unhelpful.

I know we kept sending you updates of our engineering work and our gfs crew kept on stating that the progress signals all kept on pointing to a 10 or 16 day period where all clients will have the full benefit of our freeze service. Again this did not happen and we had to sit back and read all the comments from dishearted customers.

saying this we did manage to squeeze in a few good days where some postcodes benefited from the cold and transmition of snow was successful. 

On top of all this it is with regret to inform you that the administrators have been called in now and the pressure has become high and will be Hard to shift further North to our competitirs for us to benefit. It's highly likely that a new director called SPRING will take over and put even more heat on the fire.

It's not been a good season but we will do everything in our hands to find out why it went all wrong. We do hope to be rescued and come back next season when it's our turn again and provide a better service. 

Appologied again for all the wet towels that have been left. 

Yours WINTER

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Stop it, let us enjoy the pub run!

That was just as crap, good amplification at the end but too far East, decent cold pool to the East but thousands of miles to the East.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm tempted to stay up for the 00z..on second thoughts..nah

That's hardcore frosty, I like your style. One of these days we will build on the 18s, rather than the usual bloody downgrades, must admit though, I'm surprised by how early it's brought the colder air in

[Don]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

I wouldn't take precipitation charts at 7 days as gospel though Don, if we can get the cold in, snow will crop up just about anywhere 

Oh I know, I was joking.  Shame it will probably revert back to dross for the 00Z....