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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yes, it must mean that their in-house Glosea model has been very poor this winter.  Would be good to get confirmation (and skill scores) for Glosea performance from the Met Office.

I very much doubt they would release that info in a hurry mulzy, they still haven't got over the shock of the infamous barbecue summer prediction

Edited by Mattwolves

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37 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Remarkable stuff from the Ecm 12z with a real early taste of spring in the air during the week ahead and to think I was stupid enough to believe the met office in January about Nor'eastely blasts and enhanced snow falls for february..still this will feel very pleasant.👍:gathering:

 

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Well they are still mentioning blocking to the NE so these charts are maybe more believable than you think. Yes the HP is dragging up milder air but there isn`t anything other. Scandi high is looking promising and if the last dart at the bullseye is the end of the month then I`ll take those charts.

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I know this isn't a moaning thread but the 12z are indeed zzzzzzz. One faint glimmer at T288 (no please don't laugh):

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But, really, you only have to look at the uppers to see how grim that is.

Er, that's it.

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CfsV2 for the 23rd of Feb .what's everybody worrying about it's bound too verify .honestly the output to terrible for cold tonight in reliable may I had. Which is probs 96hr. Something is lurking for cold round the corner I'm sure if it.

cfs-2-312.png

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Ext EPS -  no change. Trough (mid Atlantic), ridge (Euro), trough (western Russia) pattern.  Very strong anomalies for a 12-15 day mean.

Very little to show a phase 8 MJO pattern.  In short, they are pretty ghastly.

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1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Ext EPS -  no change. Trough (mid Atlantic), ridge (Euro), trough (western Russia) pattern.  Very strong anomalies for a 12-15 day mean.

Very little to show a phase 8 MJO pattern.  In short, they are pretty ghastly.

Gutted.

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I can actually see a sensible route to an easterly at the back end of the month but it’s so tortuously slow getting there I can’t really be bothered ........

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Looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, nothing cold in the week ahead..the opposite in fact as it becomes increasingly mild / spring-like with temps around 11-13c 52-55f but somewhere may record 15/16c 60f later in the week ahead, generally settled too under the influence of high pressure to the SE. Beyond that, the high sinks and the atlantic cranks up a bit, especially further N / W.

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Edited by Frosty.

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Just now, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

CfsV2 for the 23rd of Feb .what's everybody worrying about it's bound too verify .honestly the output to terrible for cold tonight in reliable may I had. Which is probs 96hr. Something is lurking for cold round the corner I'm sure if it.

cfs-2-312.png

You been reading the tea bags again barnsleylad. Careful with those cfs charts though, folk may think your losing it. Seriously glimmer of hope, many a cold spell follows an unseasonably mild one. We have some very good knowledgeable posters on here, who still think there is hope for the final 3rd. I for one are one of them, apart from the knowledgeable bit! 🤣👍

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Just now, bluearmy said:

I can actually see a sensible route to an easterly at the back end of the month but it’s so tortuously slow getting there I can’t really be bothered ........

Would it be a cold uppers Easterly or the one showing on the GFS 12z suite?

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2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Ext EPS -  no change. Trough (mid Atlantic), ridge (Euro), trough (western Russia) pattern.  Very strong anomalies for a 12-15 day mean.

Very little to show a phase 8 MJO pattern.  In short, they are pretty ghastly.

I think the ridge is so strong it will cut itself off over s scandi and the Azores trough will undercut to the Russian one. A murr sausage high the result ........but it’s going to take two weeks+

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Gutted.

Not long now till proper spring and we will be put out of our winter misery! 😬

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think the ridge is so strong it will cut itself off over s scandi and the Azores trough will undercut to the Russian one. A murr sausage high the result ........but it’s going to take two weeks+

Early March then - a glimmer of hope perhaps....

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think the ridge is so strong it will cut itself off over s scandi and the Azores trough will undercut to the Russian one. A murr sausage high the result ........but it’s going to take two weeks+

Exactly my thoughts ref cutting off and getting in situ over scandi, it would be the strongest Scandi HP/block for a while.

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5 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Exactly my thoughts ref cutting off and getting in situ over scandi, it would be the strongest Scandi HP/block for a while.

I can’t see any WAA which is why I mention the sausage .....in what is likely to remain a mobile pattern, it’s the only shaped ridge that will probably survive at a high enough latitude to bring us cold. we could then see a fast retrogression aswell to a west based -nao

Edited by bluearmy

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12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I can actually see a sensible route to an easterly at the back end of the month but it’s so tortuously slow getting there I can’t really be bothered ........

Don’t give up now. We’ve been looking since November and now we are only two weeks away. Let’s be patient 😀😀

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On 06/02/2019 at 19:52, bluearmy said:

 

No obvious route to anything especially cold in today's synoptics - but that certainly doesn't mean its off the table.. The last 12 months has seen high pressure ruling the roost - and this looks like continuing with the atlantic only being able to make temporary inroads - what we've tended to see are long periods with heights remaining in situ in the same place - lots of omega blocks, we had one for 3 weeks late Dec - mid Jan, are we about to see another one.. and one once again more conducive to milder conditions than cold - a theme of the last 12 months with the exception of March. 

There is much energy programmed to move out of the NE Canada/USA seaboard this is likely to sharpen and deepen the long wave trough over mid atlantic - helping to aid WAA but the jetstream is not aligned favourably to allow disruption of the trough and building of heights N-S, hence I suspect the ridge will collapse temporarily with an atlantic feed from around 17-19th. Less energy in the atlantic thereafter, may then allow more favourable ridging of the euro ridge into a position conducive to colder conditions, but might take a good 2 weeks which might be too late for some.. but as we saw last year, certainly not late enough to deliver notable cold. Another winter with a sting in its tail perhaps?

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12 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

You been reading the tea bags again barnsleylad. Careful with those cfs charts though, folk may think your losing it. Seriously glimmer of hope, many a cold spell follows an unseasonably mild one. We have some very good knowledgeable posters on here, who still think there is hope for the final 3rd. I for one are one of them, apart from the knowledgeable bit! 🤣👍

There are three well-documented stages of model madness:👍

#1 is posting a CFS chart and expecting it to verify; #2 is posting a CFS chart and hoping it'll verify; and, #3 is image.png.adbd61c53fff46e82419e46865ca8e07.png

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Sting in the tail this winter? 

Not likely.

Early spring much more likely. 

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11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I can’t see any WAA which is why I mention the sausage .....in what is likely to remain a mobile pattern, it’s the only shaped ridge that will probably survive at a high enough latitude to bring us cold. we could then see a fast retrogression aswell to a west based -nao

Do we really want a west based -nao though?

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Just now, Stuie W said:

Do we really want a west based -nao though?

No, like many things we’ve not wanted this winter!

 

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

There are three well-documented stages of model madness:👍

#1 is posting a CFS chart and expecting it to verify; #2 is posting a CFS chart and hoping it'll verify; and, #3 is image.png.adbd61c53fff46e82419e46865ca8e07.png

Im trying to get some hope back in this thread lol lol it might verify 😵😷🐖then again pigs might fly 🐖🐖🐖🐖🐖

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3 minutes ago, DCee said:

Sting in the tail this winter? 

Not likely.

Early spring much more likely. 

The mildest air still looks like it'll peak on Friday with a gradual drop afterwards (consistently shown for a number of runs now) temps as a result are likely to fall away but obviously nothing really cold in sight (unless the op is a trend setter at the end!)

London

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Maybe something a bit cooler (colder?) for Scotland by D8 with the mean and op both going below the 0 line so here we do still have the chance for some snow especially for the high ground

Southern Scotland

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Evening All... ! So how many towels have you thrown in to this Winter?  One Two , and many more!!!!  A lot of folk have done well out of this winter, Its not over yet...Many people these days rely too much on computer info. Tele connections  are usefull, but can we find the missing LINKS??? Answer...No , too many variables in the atmosphere....And none of us no the missing link...! or LINKS! Anyway , ops show a huge blocking over Europe in the next ten days , So a Slow goodbye to Winter,,,,But there is always March!:gathering:

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