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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

You were lucky.  Central southern England was in the sweet spot.  Very little for the masses in London - 75 miles further east and it would have top billing on the news for a few days.

as Clark Gable once said 'Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn'....lol....sorry, just jesting......25cm not from an easterly, but from a nice channel runner/slider....lovely and just goes to show even darn sarf here you don't need a raging easterly to get the best snow events, and the modelling was pretty much on the ball for this from T48 out

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7 minutes ago, snefnug said:

I expect that room to be tidied  up by teatime!     Mummy.

You must be posting in the wrong thread mate, as you certainly ain't my mother!! 

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5 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

as Clark Gable once said 'Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn'....lol....sorry, just jesting......25cm not from an easterly, but from a nice channel runner/slider....lovely and just goes to show even darn sarf here you don't need a raging easterly to get the best snow events, and the modelling was pretty much on the ball for this from T48 out

Yes, sliders can give lots of snowfall (like you got a week ago and the Jan 13 event) but for longevity and potency, you can’t beat an easterly.  

Edited by mulzy

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JMA also holding some promise at T192.

image.thumb.jpg.b70b9c2856e78b9a6318486a162cd722.jpg

Assuming this amplification is down to the MJO signal, it will be interesting to see how and indeed whether it develops further.  Interesting to see the ECM ensembles in an hour or so. 

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14 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I just watched countryfile Don, I'm actually starting to warm up my throwing arm now 😭

What are they forecasting, 16C?  Shall we bring the towel throwing date forward? 😂

Edited by Don

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27 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Good post,  but correct me if I'm wrong here, this indeed is an autopsy report!! Pretty sure we have a few weeks left yet to salvage something! 🤔

I totally agree with you, yes we have still a bit of winter left and yes there could be a change. Looking at the situation at present this high is the problem especially if it sits to the south east of us, this would drag in even milder southweserlies and temperatures would certainly be spring like. If there is going to be something to salvage from what's left of this winter I think we would need a dramatic change and soon. Time is not on our side now the clock for the arrival of spring is ticking fast and the sun will be getting more stronger. I know the beast last year gave us a decent freeze and I am not saying that can't happen again but to be honest I think the chances are low. Look at the temperatures across Europe at the moment not drastically cold. So if we are to grab something now in my opinion I think we need a drastic pattern change quick time. 😊😊

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It looks like Western Europe is going to see an early taste of spring this week

ECMOPEU12_24_2.thumb.png.af389d890b94bd1550c47b294e321593.pngECMOPEU12_72_2.thumb.png.4446d74e0db630030388fb371e06f8f2.pngECMOPEU12_120_2.thumb.png.3f776f821b11d355903150f9c494be11.pngECMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.cf3ed9e683a6069ee2890fd5afa0ce77.png

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Remarkable stuff from the Ecm 12z with a real early taste of spring in the air during the week ahead and to think I was stupid enough to believe the met office in January about Nor'eastely blasts and enhanced snow falls for february..still this will feel very pleasant.👍:gathering:

 

96_thickuk.png

120_thickuk.png

120_mslp850.png

168_thickuk.png

168_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.

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2 minutes ago, Don said:

What are they forecasting, 16C?  Shall we bring the towel throwing date forward? 😂

High pressure stretching out into as far East as Moscow. And a nice wedge of mild sitting over the UK, these charts running till the back of next weekend. Still hopeful the high pressure will nudge into scandy. Could be the following week. So let's hold firm till next Sunday Don 😁

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Just have to wait until March Frosty that seems to be the month for repeated heavy snowfalls and bitter cold these days, even if it doesn't last long at sea level  expect to see some stella output in a weeks time 😁

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5 minutes ago, E17boy said:

I totally agree with you, yes we have still a bit of winter left and yes there could be a change. Looking at the situation at present this high is the problem especially if it sits to the south east of us, this would drag in even milder southweserlies and temperatures would certainly be spring like. If there is going to be something to salvage from what's left of this winter I think we would need a dramatic change and soon. Time is not on our side now the clock for the arrival of spring is ticking fast and the sun will be getting more stronger. I know the beast last year gave us a decent freeze and I am not saying that can't happen again but to be honest I think the chances are low. Look at the temperatures across Europe at the moment not drastically cold. So if we are to grab something now in my opinion I think we need a drastic pattern change quick time. 😊😊

I agree, the chances of a repeat of last year are slim, but perhaps colder enough to bring something wintry. But as you say, the current  temps across Europe are a Concern. 

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We live in hope lol 😂 even if it is not the week after that maybe the week after we will still have 4 days of Feb left. Even if it is the last few flakes that fall just so we can say a proper goodbye to mr snow ❄️ till next winter. 😊

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9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

 

120_thickuk.png

 

 

 

Remarkable indeed - that must be near record breaking warmth? As for the high retrogressive from a MLB to form a HLB when was the last time that happened!! ?? 

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Quite an unsettled and mild UKMO extended at t168 with strong winds and heavy rain in the north and west

ukm2.2019021712_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.293d48cb2be38beee6816fcad463af02.png

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5 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Remarkable indeed - that must be near record breaking warmth? As for the high retrogressive from a MLB to form a HLB when was the last time that happened!! ?? 

An absolutely shocking chart for February.  What on earth has gone wrong? 😦

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Quite an unsettled and mild UKMO extended at t168 with strong winds and heavy rain in the north and west

ukm2.2019021712_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.293d48cb2be38beee6816fcad463af02.png

This cold hunt thread is a joke..there's no cold to hunt for!..which has been the story for most of this winter and probably for what little remains of it too....sad but probably true. 

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1 minute ago, Don said:

An absolutely shocking chart for February.  What on earth has gone wrong? 😦

Well we have weather preferences, to me a shocking chart is rain all day, named storms battering us

so for me, not a shocking chart

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This cold hunt thread is a joke..there's no cold to hunt for!..which has been the story for most of this winter and probably for what little remains of it too....sad but probably true. 

couldnt agree more frosty. shocking and looking bad years to come if in mid winter were struggling for cold from anywhere!! met office got this so terribly wrong. but not just them...

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4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Well we have weather preferences, to me a shocking chart is rain all day, named storms battering us

so for me, not a shocking chart

Very true but spring charts in mid February are not for me.  Each to their own though.

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3 minutes ago, sausage said:

couldnt agree more frosty. shocking and looking bad years to come if in mid winter were struggling for cold from anywhere!! met office got this so terribly wrong. but not just them...

Bit over the top, let's not forget inside the last 10 years we have endured one of the coldest winters in the last 30 years, namely 09/10 not to mention 2010, 2013 and last year, certainly not a lost cause going forward! 

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1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Fair enough. It’s just the canaries are actually quite warm on that CFS chart. Think you may have been looking at the islands at the bottom left of the image which is actually Madeira. Canary Islands are about 300 miles further south and don’t even appear in that view. 

Will be interesting to see if CFS remains consistent. There is obviously still a signal from somewhere (perhaps Mogreps) driving the meto further outlook 

  with all due respect the Met office extended outlook has not verified very well this winter it certainly did not come off smelling of Roses as for the CFS well it’s more like a chocolate fireguard model. if the  CFs   very fie sI will have the biggest slice of humble pie 

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4 minutes ago, Don said:

Very true but spring charts in mid February are not for me.  Each to their own though.

Very true, balmy warm charts in febuary are a complete sin, so much in fact you wanna spit on em, tear them up, and ultimately set fire to them! 

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Very true, balmy warm charts in febuary are a complete sin, so much in fact you wanna spit on em, tear them up, and ultimately set fire to them! 

The only good is that at least the towel will dry fast in the warm sun 😄

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4 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

  with all due respect the Met office extended outlook has not verified very well this winter it certainly did not come off smelling of Roses as for the CFS well it’s more like a chocolate fireguard model. if the  CFs   very fie sI will have the biggest slice of humble pie 

Yes, it must mean that their in-house Glosea model has been very poor this winter.  Would be good to get confirmation (and skill scores) for Glosea performance from the Met Office.

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