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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

The signals were looking very promising as many of the experts on here and the met were banging on about for so long. I think the large chunk of vortex taking residence over Canada as been the major thorn in our side this time though. The background signals were most definitely favourable for hlb to occur, the met for one would never have put there credentials on the line if this wasn't the case. As for next month bringing warmth, not so sure, wouldn't be surprised to see a colder than average month. 

I disagree. People believed they were favorable but that's not the same as them actually being favorable. This clearly leads to a conclusion that understanding is incomplete. In fairness to lots of people on here who have interest in some of the drivers they have pretty much admitted as much and frankly there's nowt wrong with admitting that!

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4 minutes ago, Jason M said:

I disagree. People believed they were favorable but that's not the same as them actually being favorable. This clearly leads to a conclusion that understanding is incomplete. In fairness to lots of people on here who have interest in some of the drivers they have pretty much admitted as much and frankly there's nowt wrong with admitting that!

Favorable doesn't equal definite. The signals were favourable however with many things in weather not certain.

So your statement makes little sense to me as they were favourable it's just not a definite, a low heading east out of the US of was 100miles further west or slower would have changed a lot for us.

 

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there is no such thing as favorable when it comes weather just roll a dice and see what numbers you get or for the people who win big on the lottery its just the same with the weather your either lucky or not

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When we reflect back on winter 2018/19 (what winter), I think the most telling observation is how few stonking NWP outputs there has been. A continuous conveyor belt of average to poor runs on a daily basis.

Even in winters with no pre hype or expectation there has been far more.

A truly awful winter for cold and snow fans. 

Roll on summer 2019!

 

A

Edited by East801

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Just now, Snowman. said:

Favorable doesn't equal definite. The signals were favourable however with many things in weather not certain.

So your statement makes little sense to me as they were favourable it's just not a definite, a low heading east out of the US of was 100miles further west or slower would have changed a lot for us.

 

But the weather systems are products of global drivers, they do not of themselves impact the pattern. So, for instance a shortwave is created because of the bigger global / background drivers. It might appear therefore that the appearance of a shortwave has scuppered the chances of a cold spell when everything looks favorable. The reality however is that the shortwave is only there because the 'background signals' are actually not favorable. The same is true where a 'trigger low' heralds a cold easterly. It only does so because the drivers / background create the conditions for it. So it comes back to my point that the signals were clearly not favorable because if they were the outcome would have been different. Had we seen copious amounts of northern blocking but missed out in our tiny little island maybe it would be a different argument. 

That's why John Holmes will predict in the way he does and more often than not he's broadly correct. Anyway probably enough on this as we will just have to agree to disagree. 

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I do hope we're not headed for a repeat of 2012: a warmish March followed by an April, May and June of unadulterated pish!🙏

image.thumb.png.3d5b0aab629cdd1f16b2586108c41247.png

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I do hope we're not headed for a repeat of 2012: a warmish March followed by an April, May and June of unadulterated pish!🙏

image.thumb.png.3d5b0aab629cdd1f16b2586108c41247.png

That’s yesterday’s 12z. 

EDIT Sorry that is today’s!

Edited by Don

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Some support from the GEFS for the op, just when you throw in the towel for a Greenland / iceland block and say 'oh well thats it' out of nowhere an op throws out a scandi block and says jump, the ens say 'how high?'

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Mean Easterly at 360 - albeit a slack warm one.

image.thumb.png.18cae16f122b6aedad8d3f1f5c658b76.png

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Mean Easterly at 360 - albeit a slack warm one.

image.thumb.png.18cae16f122b6aedad8d3f1f5c658b76.png

 

Nowt exciting about that chart sadly.

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1 minute ago, Don said:

Nowt exciting about that chart sadly.

Its a better ridge and its better than a flat Jet.

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16 minutes ago, Jason M said:

But the weather systems are products of global drivers, they do not of themselves impact the pattern. So, for instance a shortwave is created because of the bigger global / background drivers. It might appear therefore that the appearance of a shortwave has scuppered the chances of a cold spell when everything looks favorable. The reality however is that the shortwave is only there because the 'background signals' are actually not favorable. The same is true where a 'trigger low' heralds a cold easterly. It only does so because the drivers / background create the conditions for it. So it comes back to my point that the signals were clearly not favorable because if they were the outcome would have been different. Had we seen copious amounts of northern blocking but missed out in our tiny little island maybe it would be a different argument. 

That's why John Holmes will predict in the way he does and more often than not he's broadly correct. Anyway probably enough on this as we will just have to agree to disagree. 

A shortwave appearing doesn't mean the background signals aren't favourable, the shortwave is part of the microscale when discussing background signals we're talking macro scale.

PV centered over Russia is favourable for us because it's not in it's normal spot. Which simply increases our chance therefore making it more favourable.

When you go down to the Horses you have a favourite horse but that doesn't mean it's going to win the race.

Having an SSW is one of those favourable horses, but that doesn't mean it's going win the race!

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2 minutes ago, Don said:

Nowt exciting about that chart sadly.

At least it's not Atlantic mush!

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2 minutes ago, Don said:

Nowt exciting about that chart sadly.

Look at the date !! This winter is surely nearly over 12 weeks of avid model watching and an insipid easterly at 360 hours is all we have to show for it - actually looking forward to Spring .

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11 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Look at the date !! This winter is surely nearly over 12 weeks of avid model watching and an insipid easterly at 360 hours is all we have to show for it - actually looking forward to Spring .

No its not lol

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Just now, Rambo said:

No its not lol

Well show me a chart from an op run with intra consistency that it isn’t ! 

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44 minutes ago, East801 said:

When we reflect back on winter 2018/19 (what winter), I think the most telling observation is how few stonking NWP outputs there has been. A continuous conveyor belt of average to poor runs on a daily basis.

Even in winters with no pre hype or expectation there has been far more.

A truly awful winter for cold and snow fans. 

Roll on summer 2019!

 

A

You’re very wrong with that observation there, it’s why it’s been a winter of disappointment NWP has performed extremely poorly clearly there is some deconstructive element going on, making this winter a unique one, thankfully, the easterly chase started in November and went all the way till start of February. Seemingly never getting closer. 

500mb anomalies you wonder why we didn’t get something good from this winter -NAO refused to imprint. It’s not quite done with yet, but way it’s gone it seems we’re just grabbing crumbs. 

440EC222-F8CA-4AAC-AEFF-362B344E4A21.thumb.jpeg.f3ab0b573285e5a6afb5190405d8c7aa.jpeg

 

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5 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Well show me a chart from an op run with intra consistency that it isn’t ! 

Heres one!! 😏

cfs-2-252.png

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1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

You’re very wrong with that observation there, it’s why it’s been a winter of disappointment NWP has performed extremely poorly clearly there is some deconstructive element going on, making this winter a unique one, thankfully, the easterly chase started in November and went all the way till start of February. Seemingly never getting closer. 

500mb anomalies you wonder why we didn’t get something good from this winter -NAO refused to imprint. It’s not quite done with yet, but way it’s gone it seems we’re just grabbing crumbs. 

440EC222-F8CA-4AAC-AEFF-362B344E4A21.thumb.jpeg.f3ab0b573285e5a6afb5190405d8c7aa.jpeg

 

Grabbing crumbs is putting it mildly roll on spring.

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7 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Well show me a chart from an op run with intra consistency that it isn’t ! 

You said all we've got to show for 12 weeks of winter is a weak easterly at 360hrs......which is just factually wrong lol. 

Aside from the numerous numerous model runs and ens that showed an easterly is possible, we actually have had snow, and some have had the snowiest fall for years.........sooooo a weak easterly ISNT all we have to show for it lol

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Fear not everyone the CFS is on board at t350. GAME ON 😂

42F531AE-6B8E-4E91-9234-BABA392BC7E6.png

403BD0F1-B1D2-4D45-BDDE-F5CC5BE63005.png

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4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

You’re very wrong with that observation there, it’s why it’s been a winter of disappointment NWP has performed extremely poorly clearly there ....

440EC222-F8CA-4AAC-AEFF-362B344E4A21.thumb.jpeg.f3ab0b573285e5a6afb5190405d8c7aa.jpeg

 

Agree wholeheartedly surely the story of this winter has been the 10 day nirvana which repeatedly showed up and stayed at 10 days ! ?

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5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Heres one!! 😏

cfs-2-252.png

That really cheered me up - the CFS 👏🏻👏🏻

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6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Fear not everyone the CFS is on board at t350. GAME ON 😂

42F531AE-6B8E-4E91-9234-BABA392BC7E6.png

403BD0F1-B1D2-4D45-BDDE-F5CC5BE63005.png

My god thats some cold pool, its nearly reaching the canary Isles 🤣

Edited by Mattwolves

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4 minutes ago, Rambo said:

You said all we've got to show for 12 weeks of winter is a weak easterly at 360hrs......which is just factually wrong lol. 

Aside from the numerous numerous model runs and ens that showed an easterly is possible, we actually have had snow, and some have had the snowiest fall for years.........sooooo a weak easterly ISNT all we have to show for it lol

We have had numerous model runs that have shown an easterly is possible and that’s where they stayed in model never land - please don’t try and tell me this has been a great winter because it hasn’t !

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