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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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30 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

The most informative,level headed and truthful post I have seen on these forums for many a month.

I suggest people look back on this post in winters to come when they consider buying into some of these outlandish,but well written/meaning posts that predict snowmageddon somewhere down the line due to this or that global driver.

Thanks, I've been guilty on a number of occasions this winter of getting carried away and jumping on the SSW and/or MJO going through 'colder' phases being a definite force for good and WILL change the patterns without addressing the caveats too. Some do of course attach the caveats of caution to the possible benefits of the 'positive' signals, something I will certainly do from now on, after those positive signals have clearly not manifested in the troposphere (such as SSW) or have been overridden by other factors (MJO). Worth pointing out the drivers and teleconnections are still a useful tool, but being too confident in their use to predict more than 10 days ahead can easily end up with too many bust forecasts. This winter has been a good test for those longer range predictions.

Onwards and upwards, still plenty of time for the pattern to change to bring one or two more last hurrahs of cold and snow, but I suspect in similar vein of the winter so far they may be brief and marginal affairs. Noticed posts discussing the solar minimum, yes we are reaching it, but we could bottom out this year and into early 2020 before activity curve rises back up. Cold winters can occur when the activity has started to rise out from the min, 2010/11 winter was on the rise from solar minimum, so potential we could still get two cold winters a row.

Edited by Nick F

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1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Cold winters can occur when the activity has started to rise out from the min, 2010/11 winter was on the rise from solar minimum, so potential we could still get two cold winters in the row.

That was my understanding, too, that colder winter's tend to occur just after solar minimum, rather than during.  Could be a lag effect?

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Maybe if we all throw our towels in a synchronised manner?

You know the old saying, “if a butterfly flaps it’s wings”!

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Hello

If it's cold you are after then unfortunately little comfort can be gained from the ensembles. The persistence of the mild forecasts for mid Feb have been remarkable. It appears even the forecasts for February 2nd were close to the mark and that was 8 days ago. Mild, mild, mild with the odd run being an exception but the picture never really changing.

image.thumb.png.0be187c301fe498ddbf8fcb62c339916.png

Even the picture for February 20th is becoming strongly mild now... I'd be tempted to write off February up until the 20th. We may get something better after that... but there is a lack of northern blocking at the moment.

image.thumb.png.d2ebd1fd7695dc6ec11c48cf8458e657.png

The global temperature anomalies show the US and parts of the arctic hogging all the colder then average temperatures, whilst a huge swathe of Europe and Eurasia has temperatures well above average. Kind of reminds me of February 2002... this may last a while....

image.thumb.png.e10c1b260811b69d12a087c70dd15350.png

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1 hour ago, Geordiesnow said:

well that is largely our climate for wintsr, that is the normal weather pattern for winter so not sure what that moan is all about. All that said blocking can and do occur and sometimes it runs favourably and sometimes its blocked but much drier.

Problem with next week, we have a blocking high but in the worse position for us in terms of wanting any type of winter weathe really as it will turn progressively milder and any frost and fog will be very limited due to cloud cover and increasing winds.

I know that -  it's just frustration on my part and I can moan if I want..🤫

Edited by D.V.R

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So here we stand, models showing nothing favourable, anomalies rubbish, ensembles with no promise.

Given the performances this winter I'm surprised more aren't shouting game on, this is probably the best chance yet of seeing a big flip to cold😂

I'll go for a punt, 144/168 on the 12th/13th🙈

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Personally I'm waiting until tomorrow mornings runs before calling it a day.

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F I is about 4 days ahead for me looking at the models this morning wide scatter after then. Mostly looking mild but a few going cold nothing major yet(and that's a big yet)I still think something could happen regarding cold I still have some confidence at the Min with cold prospect. I'm waiting for the big upgrade shorty fingers crossed 😁

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1 hour ago, Don said:

Towel is washed and ready for next weekend.......

  well you may keep your towel in hand till next weekend good for you I say but I have as of today thrown my towel in to the ring until November when I take it up again for a another four months of torture 

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UN144-21.thumb.gif.08c7a3f99661559e9a1d4937df780f7d.gifUKMO at 144z with high pressure to our E/NE as per METO forecast and GFSV3 nearest match at 144.Cold pool sneaking around the flank more evident on UKMO

Thereafter confidence dwains so no point looking in any further detail.gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.f90252abede9cb6d37e633b21cec4af8.png 

UN144-7.gif

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Despite all the doom and gloom, the ramping and the moaning, at least this winter has provided not only a valuable lesson but also more data to aid future winter forecasts.

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9 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

UKMO at 144z with high pressure to our E/NE as per METO forecast and GFSV3 nearest match at 144.Cold pool sneaking around the flank more evident on UKMO

Thereafter confidence dwains so no point looking in any further detail. 

 

1

I am far from convinced that the GFSv3 is fine-tuned enough in the current setup. Certainly, it has been poor with cold charts failing to verify all Winter.

Again a massive move towards it's older brother on the 06z:

oz1069565260_gfs-0-216(4).thumb.png.de0c6f2100c5e41d662e7629f961e41a.png 06z>>gfs-0-210.thumb.png.d39ce402dbe7f6745353c0af35808c4d.png

Two GEFS vaguely in the ballpark of the GFSv3 0z run.

It is still a work in progress, though more consistent with the Atlantic flow in westerly patterns.

Long-term both have similar D16 charts, aligned to the GEFS:

392558229_gfsnh-0-384(4).thumb.png.a90820b090b437a2ba43718b76e6cad1.png1959026217_gfsnh-0-384(3).thumb.png.a11024e5b557fd23bfb075b95ff6db52.png

Compare that with the same period last year:

gfsnh-0-6.thumb.png.0cf9988a89fac2cf604082fb40bfb552.png

The PV looks twice the size this Feb and potential is poor. This with the non-downwelling and the mute MJO signal means that the PV has little incentive to relent and with the quasi-permanent Pacific cell and the UK high really hard to see a late cold spell. Another week and we can write the final chapter on this Winter?

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@Nick F a very good level headed post. A lot of followers of Netweather also follow some American sites in which there are too many enthusiasts that forecast winter as far back as in July/August. They use teleconnections to every single detail/historical reanalysis etc. Now talking strictly about MJO and wave driven atmospheric response it is always going to effect north American circulation first through pacific amplification(EPO,PNA), the north Atlantic sector is last to be effected, now add the fact that area around Southern Greenland and Iceland is probably to most difficult to forecast anyway then seasonals and even 7+ day forecasts have to be treated with a huge risk factor. Now if we focus strictly on the dreaded NAO region, it likes to come around in clusters of negative and positive. - 60s hugely negative, also 2009 -2013. with the positives unfortunately lasting a lot longer recently 1988-1995. 2013-2019 and counting. Wouldn't mind instead of SSW next year seeing -PDO and Altantic tripole and see what happens.

It has not only been a painful cluster of winters for UK perspective(discarding BFTE) but generally for Continental Europe, with January 2017 being exception since 2013. The cold air has been aligned to effect North East of Canada and Eastern Asia predominantly and we are faced with a cut of mid Atlantic low that advects EuroHigh - (this also in spring,summer,autumn) or short term cooler spells where jet stream travels on NW -SE axis, this is only polar maritime air and is quickly mixed out. what we need is the main area of vortex to be present in EuroAsian sector not around Hudson bay a la Dec 2010. I hope we soon break this NAO drought or if not I hope someone meantime finds a genuine reason why we in Europe have been depleted of proper sustained winter weather.

 

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2 hours ago, Nick F said:

Thanks, I've been guilty on a number of occasions this winter of getting carried away and jumping on the SSW and/or MJO going through 'colder' phases being a definite force for good and WILL change the patterns without addressing the caveats too. Some do of course attach the caveats of caution to the possible benefits of the 'positive' signals, something I will certainly do from now on, after those positive signals have clearly not manifested in the troposphere (such as SSW) or have been overridden by other factors (MJO). Worth pointing out the drivers and teleconnections are still a useful tool, but being too confident in their use to predict more than 10 days ahead can easily end up with too many bust forecasts. This winter has been a good test for those longer range predictions.

Some very good points and the one highlighted is the key. Making predictions based on signals is fine, but it's based on what little we know and always has caveats applied to highlight that they are based on probability and are not definite. I fear that sometimes people choose to ignore the probability side and choose instead to make snide remarks, but that should not out anyone off from making a forecast if they base it on sound analysis. 

We still have a huge amount to learn and have very little data to work with; onwards and upwards!

Just to add, it has seemed likely for quite a while now that high pressure setting close to the UK seems the most likely outcome and nothing has changed my view in that respect. The MJO moving into phase 8 means nothing on its own as I posted a few days ago; until the Pacific pattern changes from the current setup there is little to no chance of anything popping up to our north IMHO. I'm interested to know just why the Pacific has been so locked into the same pattern this winter.

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All of this towel throwing reminds me of people at football matches who leave 15 minutes before the end of a rather unimpressive display by their team at 1-0 down only to hear the cheers for the second goal of their teams two goal comeback as they get to their car a few streets away.   

I,m happy to admit we have probably missed out on extended deep cold at this stage but giving up on substantial or even very substantial snowfall on the 10th of February seems to be to be tad premature to me. 

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Some posts are going to dissapear, Please stay on topic, That is chat based around the "Model Outputs".

If you want to moan about this Winter, Head over to the Winter thread.

Thanks.

Edit-

More posts are being hidden, If you want to discuss this Winter please head over to the Winter thread.

This thread is for hunting for cold via the Model Outputs.

If it's Climate chat head to the Climate area.

For Meto chat head to the Meto thread.

It's only a handful of members which are constantly posting off topic, And ignoring these rules which is derailing the thread and creating lots of work.

The team is keeping a close eye on the persistent offenders, And action will be taken if it continues.

Thanks please continue.

Edited by Polar Maritime

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10 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I think it’s more reflected from the trials and tribulations of winter so far to be honest mate, it’s hard to keep up hope at this point I mean we are probably in the worst position chart wise that we’ve seen so far this winter, and for many this winter has promised so much and literally delivered nothing, you can understand the frustration it’s hard enough to chase charts but when there’s nothing to chase what do we do?

Oh and this is from a football fan who never leaves before the end, even when we are 3-0 down at home to Burnley... 🙄😂

I get where your coming from Weatherwizard but the worst situation to be in would be and endless set of storms on a mild flat jet like 2013/14.

With high pressure around there is always the chance that it may move to a more favourable position. 

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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So much for these long range models, going for HLB for much of Feb, we end up with some of the worst looking charts if you like cold and snowy weather, with high pressure close to SE England drawing up long fetch mild SW winds, still at least they got  correct high pressure would be  influencing the UK weather 🤣

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8 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Background signals mean nothing as this winter has proven beyond reasonable doubt, and SSW only slightly increases the probability of colder weather, the uk climate has always been mild winters  bar the odd occasion, one in 15 years is the average for a very cold spell in the uk and we have had 3 of those since 2010 😏

Sorry sleety but you're a bit off beam with this.  Whilst agreeing that the background signals have been overidden or muted by something else so far this winter. With regard to SSW, those that happen in a westerly QBO are less likely to have stark effects in the UK but those happening in other QBO phases have far more than a slight chance of affecting the UK.

The fact remains that you won't get an extended cold / snowy spell in the UK without the background signals being favourable.

 

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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9 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Sorry sleety but you're a bit off beam with this.  Whilst agreeing that the background signals have been overidden or muted by something else so far this winter.

The fact remains that you won't get an extended cold or snowy spell in the UK without the background signals being favourable.

Never been keen on this phrase myself. When we talk about background signals what does that mean? I struggle to see how anyone can say the background signals have been favorable this winter because they clearly haven't been, or else we would have seen something meaningful. Yes there was a SSW but a combination of other factors (which are not really fully understood) have led to a crap winter. There has never at any point been much evidence of any HLB in the output we have seen. The reality is that the signals were very poor but people misunderstood them (and that's not a criticism of anyone).

The key background signal this winter has been southern European heights and the only consolation will be if the sheer persistence of these continues for much longer we can look forward to some genuine warmth next month, which if we cant get snow is surely the next best thing!

Edited by Jason M

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6 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Never been keen on this phrase myself. When we talk about background signals what does that mean? I struggle to see how anyone can say the background signals have been favorable this winter because they clearly haven't been, or else we would have seen something meaningful. Yes there was a SSW but a combination of other factors (which are not really fully understood) have led to a crap winter. There has never at any point been much evidence of any HLB in the output we have seen. The reality is that the signals were very poor but people misunderstood them (and that's not a criticism of anyone).

The key background signal this winter has been southern European heights and the only consolation will be if the sheer persistence of these continues for much longer we can look forward to some genuine warmth next month, which if we cant get snow is surely the next best thing!

The signals were looking very promising as many of the experts on here and the met were banging on about for so long. I think the large chunk of vortex taking residence over Canada as been the major thorn in our side this time though. The background signals were most definitely favourable for hlb to occur, the met for one would never have put there credentials on the line if this wasn't the case. As for next month bringing warmth, not so sure, wouldn't be surprised to see a colder than average month. 

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Now I know what's making all those peeps (in Birdbox) walk under buses: it's seeing this:😱

image.thumb.png.6dc2373b4d35f8522f274f66228c2f60.png

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Now I know what's making all those peeps (in Birdbox) walk under buses: it's seeing this:😱

image.thumb.png.6dc2373b4d35f8522f274f66228c2f60.png

Looks like an Azores ridge reload pattern, not bad if you’re wanting some early spring weather especially in the South ☀️ 

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16 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Never been keen on this phrase myself. When we talk about background signals what does that mean? I struggle to see how anyone can say the background signals have been favorable this winter because they clearly haven't been, or else we would have seen something meaningful. Yes there was a SSW but a combination of other factors (which are not really fully understood) have led to a crap winter. There has never at any point been much evidence of any HLB in the output we have seen. The reality is that the signals were very poor but people misunderstood them (and that's not a criticism of anyone).

The key background signal this winter has been southern European heights and the only consolation will be if the sheer persistence of these continues for much longer we can look forward to some genuine warmth next month, which if we cant get snow is surely the next best thing!

I think you're the one misunderstanding what the term background signals means . You say there werent any favourable ones? lol

Edited by Rambo

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