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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Has this thread been infiltrated with people who just want to comment/discuss instead of posting actual model output?

Pages of obituary's and no model output 

The GEFS are very average and ECM look no better at the moment

image.thumb.png.d07b89b9842d90d15e91994194c97929.png

image.thumb.png.9d5b6714f2380da997fba97e4592fa6a.png

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7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Has this thread been infiltrated with people who just want to comment/discuss instead of posting actual model output?

Pages of obituary's and no model output 

The GEFS are very average and ECM look no better at the moment

image.thumb.png.d07b89b9842d90d15e91994194c97929.png

image.thumb.png.9d5b6714f2380da997fba97e4592fa6a.png

Your charts above are exactly the reason nobody is posting them, severe and dibilitating model fatigue has well and truly set in, we await the coroners autopsy! 😒

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A pretty solid omega block setting up in the extended eps  mean - been headed that way for the past few days and the ridge becoming more defined as the runs tick by - one wonders if glosea was seeing this but again missing the strength of the nw Atlantic trough so the ridge is further east across nw Europe - 750 miles from winter nirvana ! 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

A pretty solid omega block setting up in the extended eps  mean - been headed that way for the past few days and the ridge becoming more defined as the runs tick by - one wonders if glosea was seeing this but again missing the strength of the nw Atlantic trough so the ridge is further east across nw Europe - 750 miles from winter nirvana ! 

Where is this omega block please - Iceland?

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Where is this omega block please - Iceland?

That would be good for cold -  its over us mate ! 

F2E9D2EE-F4F4-472F-9563-2284B02FD45D.thumb.jpeg.d19425f7fba13fa9ec661f28d887deb2.jpeg

Edited by bluearmy
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1 hour ago, karyo said:

Re: better prospects next winter, that's assuming that the QBO will turn easterly early enough to save the winter. If the switch takes long to complete then we may be chasing cold spells in Feb/March again.

Don't we say this after (even though we've got 20 days of winter to run) most disappointing winters?...have to say this one has been particularly frustrating considering all the 'positive' background signals and seasonal global models and MetO/ec46 outlooks, and putting this into regard could be the most frustrating since the millennium... 

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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

A pretty solid omega block setting up in the extended eps  mean - been headed that way for the past few days and the ridge becoming more defined as the runs tick by - one wonders if glosea was seeing this but again missing the strength of the nw Atlantic trough so the ridge is further east across nw Europe - 750 miles from winter nirvana ! 

Which pretty much means from where im sat these seasonal models may be OK macro scale, but when it comes to the micro scale (nitty gritty), they are meaningless.

Edited by northwestsnow
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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That would be good for cold -  its over us mate ! 

F2E9D2EE-F4F4-472F-9563-2284B02FD45D.thumb.jpeg.d19425f7fba13fa9ec661f28d887deb2.jpeg

Thats just as bad as it gets, recent GEFS were showing that but the ridge was gaining latitude with each run so i was starting to become confident it would end up as a proper HLB, but its just sticking there.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Thats just as bad as it gets, recent GEFS were showing that but the ridge was gaining latitude with each run so i was starting to become confident it would end up as a proper HLB, but its just sticking there.

There is a hope that there are two clusters - one with a Euro ridge and one with a griceland  ridge ...... yeah I know ......

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Well, I go away for two days and some very minor adjustments on the ECM turn all the colder air for the end of next week to mild!!

Though actually quite frosty next weekend on the raw output, followed by a very swift temperature rise to double figures - impressive rises for only mid-February!

I'd caution being too pessimistic after T168. Next week's block gets further north than the usual "euroslug". If Atlantic energy splits differently to the current forecast between D6-D8, there could still be a standoff between east and west resulting in the block being nudged further north. We're still dealing with fine lines. Coldies have got less lucky with the D4-D7 period on these fine lines (pressure building just a few hundred miles further north could have kept the feed purely continental), but regardless of ensemble data, we aren't far away from the block sticking rather than flattening.

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37 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Which pretty much means from where im sat these seasonal models may be OK macro scale, but when it comes to the micro scale (nitty gritty), they are meaningless.

This has always been case with seasonal models and background signals though NWS. People see an analogue for Greenland blocking and automatically assume it will all fall into place, very few people say what if the Greenland block is west Greeland. Or too far north in Greenland to affect us.

The truth is we absolutely need the background signals to be favourable to get extended cold/snow but they do have to be exactly where we need them, not just generally happening. 

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1 hour ago, karyo said:

Amazing outcome! 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

It seems they are using the 1961-90 average so still just above average.

This puts into perspective that January 2019 was one of those months that was a little below the average by the standards of most recent decades, but still a shade above average by the standards of earlier decades.  For instance the 1951-80 average for January is 3.6*C, whereas by 1981-2010 it was 4.4*C.

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4 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

This puts into perspective that January 2019 was one of those months that was a little below the average by the standards of most recent decades, but still a shade above average by the standards of earlier decades.  For instance the 1951-80 average for January is 3.6*C, whereas by 1981-2010 it was 4.4*C.

A rise of 0.8C, that's quite a lot!

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Just now, Don said:

A rise of 0.8C, that's quite a lot!

New Era?

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2 minutes ago, booferking said:

New Era?

Indeed, I wonder what the average will be for 1991-2020?!  We will have lost those cold winters of the 80's.

Edited by Don
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I think that the main disappointment so far this winter is that right from when it started, the expectations were high for this winter to be a significant improvement on many recent winters even if it wasn't going to be a particularly cold one.  The way that January can be viewed is although its temperature profile wasn't especially mild, it just wasn't as cold as many people expected it to be, and the colder weather that we had was more of a "relatively cold" spell with snow for some parts of the country, rather than a spell of really low temperatures and significant widespread snow, and also that February has after relatively cold opening days, turned mild and does not look like bringing much in the way of cold weather.

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4 minutes ago, Don said:

A rise of 0.8C, that's quite a lot!

huge amount for marginal snow events

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3 minutes ago, Don said:

Indeed, I wonder what the average will be for 1991-2020?!  We will have lost those cold winters of the 80's.

I believe that the 1991-2019 January average is 4.6*C, so it looks as though whatever happens in 2020 the 1991-2020 average will be even warmer still, so it sure shows that January will have warmed a degree from what it was in 1951-80, which makes it so worrying for how difficult it is getting to get a truly cold winter in the UK.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

huge amount for marginal snow events

Yes it certainly IS !!

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Enough of the bickering or posts will be removed!

Edited by Norrance
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2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

There is a hope that there are two clusters - one with a Euro ridge and one with a griceland  ridge ...... yeah I know ......

Well there are four but one of the largest is actually a griceland high ........

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well there are four but one of the largest is actually a griceland high ........

Euro heights still the problem on all clusters.

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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well there are four but one of the largest is actually a griceland high ........

The MJO P8-driven cross polar ridge from the Pacific is desperately trying to at last break the negative NAO drought in the 8+ day range but somehow even with a massive WWB in the Central Pacific they still struggle to show a clear ascendency of a more Nino-like pattern; that Griceland High ‘one of largest’ EPS cluster being the best they’ve mustered today with the det runs failing to represent anything of the typical magnitude of HLB development NW of the UK. ECM’s collapse back to a big subtropical ridge setup D9-D10 was especially perplexing.

Edited by Singularity
W Not E!
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5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

The MJO P8-driven cross polar ridge from the Pacific is desperately trying to at last break the negative NAO drought in the 8+ day range but somehow even with a massive WWB in the Central Pacific they still struggle to show a clear ascendency of a more Nino-like pattern; that Griceland High ‘one of largest’ EPS cluster being the best they’ve mustered today with the det runs failing to represent anything of the typical magnitude of HLB development NW of the UK. ECM’s collapse back to a big subtropical ridge setup D9-D10 was especially perplexing.

Whats a WWB please?

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