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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Just now, seabreeze86 said:

Hard to dress this up, it's horrible,  as D:Ream once sang things can only get better 

Screenshot_20190209-185230.png

Think i would speak for many feeling utterly shortchanged again for this poxy effort of a winter for the UK ..

Its likely not what people want to hear but i honestly believe next one will be better, the QBO with a bit of luck will be easterly which will do no harm at all.

Im struggling to think of any other reason than QBO as to why its been so awful, only other culprit i can think of is SSTS?

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For the next 12 days or so we have a wave train of HP cells circumnavigating around the NH, the Pacific Hadley Cell the inspiration for this train. Within that time frame, I see little chance of a Russian High moving west.

After D12 we see the GEFS stop that train near the UK and ATM suggestion are that the energy will build NE towards Scandi, but maybe more MLB than HLB.

Overall the GEFS at D16 are poor for cold and nominal for snow:

gens_panel_rjt7.png  London>>graphe3_1000_308_149___.thumb.gif.9ea23e07fe179d5258169067a23cb6e3.gif

The PV remains rampant on near enough every member with HLB'ing conspicuous by its absence. No sign of any meaningful -AO in the reliable.

That pushes us to the end of the month and that long wave pattern looks a good bet, not sure of any dramatic turnarounds in that period TBH. After that, I am not optimistic, but too early to be too negative...

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

True, but given we have past solar min now, we could do with a decent one soon, just to steady the fears.

Hopefully so 🙂

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1 minute ago, Don said:

I’ll give it until next weekend before properly throwing the towel in!

Bloody hell Don you must have a hell of a lot of towels, the amount you have through in 😜

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51 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think we will be ok one of the winters in the next few years as we are now at solar min.

Apparently were still not out of solar cycle 24 fingers crossed for a late sting if not surely next winter background signals or not😁

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Just now, Mattwolves said:

Bloody hell Don you must have a hell of a lot of towels, the amount you have through in 😜

TBF to Don whose posts i enjoy its hard not to feel deflated by all this.

ANOTHER winter with no northerly to speak of.

Anyway, i'm still thinking late Feb, if no signs of that materializing by the 18th enoughs enough and i will have given up too.

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Just now, Mattwolves said:

Bloody hell Don you must have a hell of a lot of towels, the amount you have through in 😜

Nope, haven’t actually thrown in the towel yet, but have been very close and still am!  Will give it to next weekend just in case. 😉

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The hunt for cold has been a running joke all winter.

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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think i would speak for many feeling utterly shortchanged again for this poxy effort of a winter for the UK ..

Its likely not what people want to hear but i honestly believe next one will be better, the QBO with a bit of luck will be easterly which will do no harm at all.

Im struggling to think of any other reason than QBO as to why its been so awful, only other culprit i can think of is SSTS?

Re: better prospects next winter, that's assuming that the QBO will turn easterly early enough to save the winter. If the switch takes long to complete then we may be chasing cold spells in Feb/March again.

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

Re: better prospects next winter, that's assuming that the QBO will turn easterly early enough to save the winter. If the switch takes long to complete then we may be chasing cold spells in Feb/March again.

Yes its something we will have to keep an eye on K, i'm so disappointed though, even ENSO wasn't to bad this time around.Knowing our luck we will get a super EL NINO later this year..

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16 minutes ago, Don said:

I’ll give it until next weekend before properly throwing the towel in!

Would like to say I would 😯,but guarantee I will be having a squirrels look next week and the week after lol ☺ 🙏

Waiting to see what the ever optimist TI has to say. Can't trust this set up past 6 days i suggest. 

Edited by icykev
but haven't 😨

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBF to Don whose posts i enjoy its hard not to feel deflated by all this.

ANOTHER winter with no northerly to speak of.

Anyway, i'm still thinking late Feb, if no signs of that materializing by the 18th enoughs enough and i will have given up too.

I understand where your coming from this winter, even Mr optimistic me is starting to wane, I will give it til the 28th, just watch bloody march bring an ice age now, Yeh I like dons posts as well, also he is easy to have a banter with. 👍

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4 minutes ago, karyo said:

Re: better prospects next winter, that's assuming that the QBO will turn easterly early enough to save the winter. If the switch takes long to complete then we may be chasing cold spells in Feb/March again.

Hopefully we won’t get a repetition of 2016 when the easterly QBO failed and remained westerly!  However, I think that will be highly unlikely.  It will probably be touch and go as to where we are with the QBO next winter as we haven’t long been in the westerly phase.  Atlantic SST’s were also a fly in the ointment for the NAO this winter, so although ‘background’ signals have been positive, they have not been perfect.

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Subject to no further shut-downs across the pond the delayed GFS upgrade will take place on March 20th

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes its something we will have to keep an eye on K, i'm so disappointed though, even ENSO wasn't to bad this time around.Knowing our luck we will get a super EL NINO later this year..

It is going a very long wait for winter as this one was practically cancelled.

Maybe around September we should start a QBO monitoring thread to see how long the switch is likely to take.

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Too early to be throwing in the towel. The 500Mb anamolies for this winter to date will surprise folk.  Heights have been higher than normal over Greenland and other polar regions.  We just haven’t got rid of those bl**dy Azores / Euro heights.  

Edited by mulzy

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UKMO extended keeps most of the UK dry but fairly windy as a deep low moves closer bringing some rain to western Scotland, NI & ROI

ukm2.2019021612_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.4ae915ce7be99a358f89801de2a0805a.png

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13 minutes ago, Don said:

Hopefully we won’t get a repetition of 2016 when the easterly QBO failed and remained westerly!  However, I think that will be highly unlikely.  It will probably be touch and go as to where we are with the QBO next winter as we haven’t long been in the westerly phase.  Atlantic SST’s were also a fly in the ointment for the NAO this winter, so although ‘background’ signals have been positive, they have not been perfect.

That's true. I think most of us would have been happy to achieve a decently cold month (below average temperatures) and some snow that lasts on the ground for a few days. Alas both Dec and Jan are well above average and February looks like going the same way.

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14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes its something we will have to keep an eye on K, i'm so disappointed though, even ENSO wasn't to bad this time around.Knowing our luck we will get a super EL NINO later this year..

We will know by autumn if we are going to get a super El Niño, in which case our expectations for a cold winter will be virtually zero!

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

That's true. I think most of us would have been happy to achieve a decently cold month (below average temperatures) and some snow that lasts on the ground for a few days. Alas both Dec and Jan are well above average and February looks like going the same way.

January CET was 4.0C - below the 1981-2010 average.

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If any one has time.  . .

Not sure what the gap in the jet means but maybe this is our chance of pushing it south. Maybe I am mistaken. New to this any help would be appreciated.

hgt300.thumb.png.4793a38a1c6bd8616dbc930506b76284.png

Watching the evolution of it makes u think it could split south is this a possibility? 

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33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think i would speak for many feeling utterly shortchanged again for this poxy effort of a winter for the UK ..

Its likely not what people want to hear but i honestly believe next one will be better, the QBO with a bit of luck will be easterly which will do no harm at all.

Im struggling to think of any other reason than QBO as to why its been so awful, only other culprit i can think of is SSTS?

The may NAO signal was for a positive/neutral winter so that was bang on, must other signals pointed to cold especially around December. Although those using the solar cycle will know the winter before solar minimum is usually poor for us so there were clues to be fair. With such confidence from very talented people on here and the met office it was hard not to be optimistic.

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29 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Subject to no further shut-downs across the pond the delayed GFS upgrade will take place on March 20th

and the next government shutdown will take place on March 19th 🤣

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12z ECM ens following recent runs mild air peaking on Friday then a steady downward trend with the Op on the mild side again in the later stages

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.23e03dfa5064b4810eabee2c0b00776a.png

Southern Scotland

sco.thumb.png.75e83ebf1e07ab28f6c8b1d7c0d698f6.png

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