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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
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Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    I think it was that thread when he talked about the hadley cell expanding due to climate change causing our winters to be crap and was ultimately thinking of leaving the UK as a result as he doesn't see much change.

    Great, let's all leave the UK cause we could have a sequence of mild winters, only problem now is with brexit, no bugger will have us ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland

    Just waiting for the BOOM charts to come out this evening. Especially now when everyone has give up, not without good reason.

    Not me. Usual phrase potentialScreenshot_2019-02-09-18-07-44.thumb.png.4d8f88ba1477a730ae829351d2074c48.png

    Looking for a change tonight 2 wards grreeeeny?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Great, let's all leave the UK cause we could have a sequence of mild winters, only problem now is with brexit, no bugger will have us ?

    Could move to the USA or Canada?

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    I think we will be ok one of the winters in the next few years as we are now at solar min.

    Hmm, not sure about that after this winter.  Not saying there won't be any cold but deep cold is a different matter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    Just now, Don said:

    Could move to the USA or Canada?

    Was thinking somewhere closer to home though. I've got family in Canada, and trust me they get fed up with brutal cold. I mean I've had a couple of weeks here and there , and Yeh it's fine, till you spend several hours outdoors in it. And don't forget the NHS Don, we are the envy of the world for having one, you gorra pay for it all out there. 

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    Just now, Mattwolves said:

    Great, let's all leave the UK cause we could have a sequence of mild winters, only problem now is with brexit, no bugger will have us ?

    No two winters will be the same as with our summers ,it just this one has so far been very disappointing for a lot of us but there is still time for a change to more wintery weather although it's not looking that way for the next 5 days ,beyond that there's still the chance for the block which will be to our East to migrate to a more favourable position

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    1 minute ago, Eastnorthwest said:

    No two winters will be the same as with our summers ,it just this one has so far been very disappointing for a lot of us but there is still time for a change to more wintery weather although it's not looking that way for the next 5 days ,beyond that there's still the chance for the block which will be to our East to migrate to a more favourable position

    Well said young man, with you all the way, and as Feb as pointed out, low solar minimum will only serve to increase our chances of some colder winters in the next few years 

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    1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

    Well said young man, with you all the way, and as Feb as pointed out, low solar minimum will only serve to increase our chances of some colder winters in the next few years 

    Yep 

    not saying 2010 will happen but we all know what the sm 10 years ago casued winters of 09/10 to turn out 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL

    I know nothing super exciting is going on, but can we stay on topic please?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    5 minutes ago, Lauren said:

    I know nothing super exciting is going on, but can we stay on topic please?

    This is slightly more exciting, a little more amplification, could be a good ending.

    image.thumb.png.0c85f7432cca09ac28b186d7d6b75b90.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    This is slightly more exciting, a little more amplification, could be a good ending.

    image.thumb.png.0c85f7432cca09ac28b186d7d6b75b90.png

    I was thinking the same different upstream across the pond.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Looks poor to me?

    Unless i'm missing something, even with the big PV lobe shifted towards Siberia we still see the never ending soul destroying energy moving across the Atlantic.

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland

    Still on the books by all accounts

    6 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

    I was thinking the same different upstream across the pond.

    Pacific amplification of heights must be something to do with the mjo? ?

     

    Edited by icykev
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    ECM 12z overview - promises much but delivers little.

    Still think late Feb with MJO  phase 8 lag is our last hope now Feb..

     

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    ECM 12z overview - promises much but delivers little.

    That just sums of winter 2018/19.

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    Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

    Hard to dress this up, it's horrible,  as D:Ream once sang things can only get better 

    Screenshot_20190209-185230.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Still think late Feb with MJO  phase 8 lag is our last hope now Feb..

     

    Yes unfortunately though, everything just looks like hitting the buffers lately including my morale.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The models are again torture to view today (as usual for coldies this particularly feeble excuse for winter) but the background signals (don't laugh) are apparently still good with suggestions of high pressure to the N / NE but in the meantime February is dribbling away..still I'm not throwing in the towel since we still have late feb and the first half of March to go yet but most of this winter so far belongs in the bin..hope things change!

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

    It's funny how a mild Winter convinces some that we'll never see a cold one again. What would we have made of the 1920s, 30s and even most of the 70s. No climate change scare back then to blame it on. There has been nothing unusual about the weather this Winter, there have been many like it. Even decades and centuries ago there were plenty of UK Winters like this one.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, Walsall Wood Snow said:

    It's funny how a mild Winter convinces some that we'll never see a cold one again. What would we have made of the 1920s, 30s and even most of the 70s. No climate change scare back then to blame it on. There has been nothing unusual about the weather this Winter, there have been many like it. Even decades and centuries ago there were plenty of UK Winters like this one.

    True, but given we have past solar min now, we could do with a decent one soon, just to steady the fears.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, seabreeze86 said:

    Hard to dress this up, it's horrible,  as D:Ream once sang things can only get better 

    Screenshot_20190209-185230.png

    Think i would speak for many feeling utterly shortchanged again for this poxy effort of a winter for the UK ..

    Its likely not what people want to hear but i honestly believe next one will be better, the QBO with a bit of luck will be easterly which will do no harm at all.

    Im struggling to think of any other reason than QBO as to why its been so awful, only other culprit i can think of is SSTS?

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    For the next 12 days or so we have a wave train of HP cells circumnavigating around the NH, the Pacific Hadley Cell the inspiration for this train. Within that time frame, I see little chance of a Russian High moving west.

    After D12 we see the GEFS stop that train near the UK and ATM suggestion are that the energy will build NE towards Scandi, but maybe more MLB than HLB.

    Overall the GEFS at D16 are poor for cold and nominal for snow:

    gens_panel_rjt7.png  London>>graphe3_1000_308_149___.thumb.gif.9ea23e07fe179d5258169067a23cb6e3.gif

    The PV remains rampant on near enough every member with HLB'ing conspicuous by its absence. No sign of any meaningful -AO in the reliable.

    That pushes us to the end of the month and that long wave pattern looks a good bet, not sure of any dramatic turnarounds in that period TBH. After that, I am not optimistic, but too early to be too negative...

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