Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

If we don't see anymore real wintry charts and weather in the coming 4/5 weeks then this winter will be among one of the most disappointing after all the great expectations just before Xmas ,let's hope mother nature has something exciting to give us before we start looking forward to spring 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Don said:

So, in other words, we may as well not even bother with next winter in Britain or the one after and book holidays to Canada?

I think we will be ok one of the winters in the next few years as we are now at solar min.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think it was that thread when he talked about the hadley cell expanding due to climate change causing our winters to be crap and was ultimately thinking of leaving the UK as a result as he doesn't see much change.

Great, let's all leave the UK cause we could have a sequence of mild winters, only problem now is with brexit, no bugger will have us 😉

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just waiting for the BOOM charts to come out this evening. Especially now when everyone has give up, not without good reason.

Not me. Usual phrase potentialScreenshot_2019-02-09-18-07-44.thumb.png.4d8f88ba1477a730ae829351d2074c48.png

Looking for a change tonight 2 wards grreeeeny🙏

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Great, let's all leave the UK cause we could have a sequence of mild winters, only problem now is with brexit, no bugger will have us 😉

Could move to the USA or Canada?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think we will be ok one of the winters in the next few years as we are now at solar min.

Hmm, not sure about that after this winter.  Not saying there won't be any cold but deep cold is a different matter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Don said:

Could move to the USA or Canada?

Was thinking somewhere closer to home though. I've got family in Canada, and trust me they get fed up with brutal cold. I mean I've had a couple of weeks here and there , and Yeh it's fine, till you spend several hours outdoors in it. And don't forget the NHS Don, we are the envy of the world for having one, you gorra pay for it all out there. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Mattwolves said:

Great, let's all leave the UK cause we could have a sequence of mild winters, only problem now is with brexit, no bugger will have us 😉

No two winters will be the same as with our summers ,it just this one has so far been very disappointing for a lot of us but there is still time for a change to more wintery weather although it's not looking that way for the next 5 days ,beyond that there's still the chance for the block which will be to our East to migrate to a more favourable position

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Eastnorthwest said:

No two winters will be the same as with our summers ,it just this one has so far been very disappointing for a lot of us but there is still time for a change to more wintery weather although it's not looking that way for the next 5 days ,beyond that there's still the chance for the block which will be to our East to migrate to a more favourable position

Well said young man, with you all the way, and as Feb as pointed out, low solar minimum will only serve to increase our chances of some colder winters in the next few years 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Well said young man, with you all the way, and as Feb as pointed out, low solar minimum will only serve to increase our chances of some colder winters in the next few years 

Yep 

not saying 2010 will happen but we all know what the sm 10 years ago casued winters of 09/10 to turn out 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know nothing super exciting is going on, but can we stay on topic please?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Lauren said:

I know nothing super exciting is going on, but can we stay on topic please?

This is slightly more exciting, a little more amplification, could be a good ending.

image.thumb.png.0c85f7432cca09ac28b186d7d6b75b90.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is slightly more exciting, a little more amplification, could be a good ending.

image.thumb.png.0c85f7432cca09ac28b186d7d6b75b90.png

I was thinking the same different upstream across the pond.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks poor to me?

Unless i'm missing something, even with the big PV lobe shifted towards Siberia we still see the never ending soul destroying energy moving across the Atlantic.

Edited by northwestsnow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still on the books by all accounts

6 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

I was thinking the same different upstream across the pond.

Pacific amplification of heights must be something to do with the mjo? 😕

 

Edited by icykev

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM 12z overview - promises much but delivers little.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM 12z overview - promises much but delivers little.

Still think late Feb with MJO  phase 8 lag is our last hope now Feb..

 

Edited by northwestsnow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM 12z overview - promises much but delivers little.

That just sums of winter 2018/19.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hard to dress this up, it's horrible,  as D:Ream once sang things can only get better 

Screenshot_20190209-185230.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After some promise the ECM quickly hits the buffers and sinks without trace by day 9.

Flat upstream and really by day ten we’ve reached rock bottom !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Still think late Feb with MJO  phase 8 lag is our last hope now Feb..

 

Yes unfortunately though, everything just looks like hitting the buffers lately including my morale.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The models are again torture to view today (as usual for coldies this particularly feeble excuse for winter) but the background signals (don't laugh) are apparently still good with suggestions of high pressure to the N / NE but in the meantime February is dribbling away..still I'm not throwing in the towel since we still have late feb and the first half of March to go yet but most of this winter so far belongs in the bin..hope things change!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's funny how a mild Winter convinces some that we'll never see a cold one again. What would we have made of the 1920s, 30s and even most of the 70s. No climate change scare back then to blame it on. There has been nothing unusual about the weather this Winter, there have been many like it. Even decades and centuries ago there were plenty of UK Winters like this one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’ll give it until next weekend before properly throwing the towel in!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Walsall Wood Snow said:

It's funny how a mild Winter convinces some that we'll never see a cold one again. What would we have made of the 1920s, 30s and even most of the 70s. No climate change scare back then to blame it on. There has been nothing unusual about the weather this Winter, there have been many like it. Even decades and centuries ago there were plenty of UK Winters like this one.

True, but given we have past solar min now, we could do with a decent one soon, just to steady the fears.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...