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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
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Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    A fairly settled week ahead according to UKMO

    It will be mild by day with Edinburgh as an example shown to have highs of between 10c and 11c from Tuesday to Saturday inclusive

    UKMOPEU12_72_1.thumb.png.17523c217180bbfaeb5d80ed647820df.pngUKMOPEU12_96_1.thumb.png.ec5a3a9dd8227d1aa4d9032321e056ec.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.dce8a9c73cd34b5f3729fbb140ac49ea.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.e0efd7119c1950c2c40de2c7e3382089.png

    Dare I say it but it will be feeling spring like for a few areas

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    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    Just now, fromey said:

    I’m going to assume not much to talk about in the models then!!

    647B8F9B-10CA-4AC2-9779-673384122D5E.gif

    I think it's because as per usual the cold set ups keep keep moving back run by run way out in fantasy land ,nothing really to get excited about in the coming 5 days, the mild wedge comes back after tomorrow brief cold spell for most of next week ,need I say more

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Perhaps some colder uppers dropping in from THE NW/N as we progress into the final 3rd, signs of a change perhaps! ?

    gem-1-240.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Perhaps some colder uppers dropping in from THE NW/N as we progress into the final 3rd, signs of a change perhaps! ?

    gem-1-240.png

    Thats the GEM 00z?

    May as well post the EC 00Z from 12th of November mate..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

    if we are to get something for the last week of February  it will all come down to the atlantic ridge getting far enough north to either give us a 48h toppler or something better at the 192h mark but I wouldn't bank on either the way our luck has been this season 

    image.thumb.png.e88bad52f390f750eb83340f7e068412.pngimage.thumb.png.d90c431b183d19319a091c62f58090b9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Thats the GEM 00z?

    May as well post the EC 00Z from 12th of November mate..

     

    Didn't realize, thought I was posting the 12s, was gonna post the CFS, but even that seems to have gone downhill now 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Trust Day 16 to produce something rather unpleasant? Snizzle in the wind?:hi:

    image.thumb.png.3ad2284b46480c78f513f7fb8b35610b.pngimage.thumb.png.50e23124d3a8c982de2b0fa558d7d06f.png  

    Lovely charts, for July, though!:fool:

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    Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
    16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    The siberian high should be renamed the chocolate fireguard high.

    we no when things look grim when we bring out the impossible its name is there for a reason 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Trust Day 16 to produce something rather unpleasant? Snizzle in the wind?

    image.thumb.png.3ad2284b46480c78f513f7fb8b35610b.pngimage.thumb.png.50e23124d3a8c982de2b0fa558d7d06f.png  

    Lovely charts, for July, though!

    You suffering model fatigue like me Ed, I'm starting to see some real hum dinger charts appearing, but I then realised it was Canadian charts I was viewing. That's it, I'll fetch me coat ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    The siberian high should be renamed the chocolate fireguard high.

    Or, to use NW parlance - the CFH??

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Seriously though, I think we may be a big step to where we are going this time next week. As regards to the met musings of high pressure perhaps setting up to the NE of us, at least that would possibly bring some colder Conditions to us, hopefully that will put a bit of fight back into the thread! If that fails I've noticed rocky 3 is on itv tonight, if Mr t can't motivate us, who can!!!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The GEFS are a mixed bag at day ten . Some okay solutions in there but we don’t want a halfway house where the Russian high moves west but never far enough or sufficiently north and traps the UK on the wrong side of any upstream amplification.

    The MJO forecasts continue to disagree . The GFS takes a slower route to phase 8 . The ECM much quicker . 

    I think I’m going to give it to the end of next week to see if we do see that MJO finally deliver some more solid changes in the outputs . 

    We could still see something more interesting towards the last week of February but we are entering the last chance saloon now so don’t have the time to see the models doing a jam tomorrow routine .

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The GEFS are a mixed bag at day ten . Some okay solutions in there but we don’t want a halfway house where the Russian high moves west but never far enough or sufficiently north and traps the UK on the wrong side of any upstream amplification.

    The MJO forecasts continue to disagree . The GFS takes a slower route to phase 8 . The ECM much quicker . 

    I think I’m going to give it to the end of next week to see if we do see that MJO finally deliver some more solid changes in the outputs . 

    We could still see something more interesting towards the last week of February but we are entering the last chance saloon now so don’t have the time to see the models doing a jam tomorrow routine .

    Seems to me Nick that the models want to go the cold route and are confused as to whether to go the Scandi high or the Greenland high route, and we are getting a combination of the 2 but all the worst features from both and not the best!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    12z ens shows the milder air peaking around Friday afterwards we see a steady drop down on the mean but remaining above the 30-year average after Tuesday

    gefsens850London0.thumb.png.59c033fd520e2a1caa658508caeae39a.pnggefsens850Newcastle0.thumb.png.82128004ea7325f4be5857ffbf202a49.pnggefsens850Edinburgh0.thumb.png.8f1602cc352d3c085980c6b81d28df77.png

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    I can just sense it, knew the Atlantic trough would be the deathknell when Iapennel said it, his record is very good, i can feel it in my bones, we are going to get some stonking amplification to the West, some stonking amplification to the East, but a semi-permanent trough just pumping mild air over the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
    31 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Seriously though, I think we may be a big step to where we are going this time next week. As regards to the met musings of high pressure perhaps setting up to the NE of us, at least that would possibly bring some colder Conditions to us, hopefully that will put a bit of fight back into the thread! If that fails I've noticed rocky 3 is on itv tonight, if Mr t can't motivate us, who can!!!! 

    The way this winter has panned out, I reckon Mission Impossible would be more apt?

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    I can just sense it, knew the Atlantic trough would be the deathknell when Iapennel said it, his record is very good, i can feel it in my bones, we are going to get some stonking amplification to the West, some stonking amplification to the East, but a semi-permanent trough just pumping mild air over the UK.

    When did Ian Pennel say that?  I haven't seen many posts from him this winter, but agree his record is very good.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    8 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

    The way this winter has panned out, I reckon Mission Impossible would be more apt?

    Yeh, that and my other favourite... Groundhog day, it's mild out there today... Its mild out there everyday! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

    A fairly settled week ahead according to UKMO

    It will be mild by day with Edinburgh as an example shown to have highs of between 10c and 11c from Tuesday to Saturday inclusive

    UKMOPEU12_72_1.thumb.png.17523c217180bbfaeb5d80ed647820df.pngUKMOPEU12_96_1.thumb.png.ec5a3a9dd8227d1aa4d9032321e056ec.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.dce8a9c73cd34b5f3729fbb140ac49ea.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.e0efd7119c1950c2c40de2c7e3382089.png

    Dare I say it but it will be feeling spring like for a few areas

    At least it’ll be decent running and cycling weather and the lakes will be warming up for open water swimming come April ?

    Cant be bothered with the models now. The jigsaw pieces were just not meant to come together this winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    I think it was that thread when he talked about the hadley cell expanding due to climate change causing our winters to be crap and was ultimately thinking of leaving the UK as a result as he doesn't see much change.

    So, in other words, we may as well not even bother with next winter in Britain or the one after and book holidays to Canada?

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    If we don't see anymore real wintry charts and weather in the coming 4/5 weeks then this winter will be among one of the most disappointing after all the great expectations just before Xmas ,let's hope mother nature has something exciting to give us before we start looking forward to spring 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Don said:

    So, in other words, we may as well not even bother with next winter in Britain or the one after and book holidays to Canada?

    I think we will be ok one of the winters in the next few years as we are now at solar min.

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