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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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4 hours ago, IDO said:

Much like the Nov 2010 once in a lifetime event, last year's March may never be repeated in my lifetime again.

That may have been its lesson, never again!

 

And yet only 6 years ago we had The coldest March for 50 years so that's two once in a lifetime march's in one lifetime already.  

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I’m going to assume not much to talk about in the models then!!

647B8F9B-10CA-4AC2-9779-673384122D5E.gif

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A fairly settled week ahead according to UKMO

It will be mild by day with Edinburgh as an example shown to have highs of between 10c and 11c from Tuesday to Saturday inclusive

UKMOPEU12_72_1.thumb.png.17523c217180bbfaeb5d80ed647820df.pngUKMOPEU12_96_1.thumb.png.ec5a3a9dd8227d1aa4d9032321e056ec.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.dce8a9c73cd34b5f3729fbb140ac49ea.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.e0efd7119c1950c2c40de2c7e3382089.png

Dare I say it but it will be feeling spring like for a few areas

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Day 10 flops again! image.thumb.png.f79301a630e543d0c6de50d5c79fd1f6.png

 

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The siberian high should be renamed the chocolate fireguard high.

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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Day 10 flops again! image.thumb.png.f79301a630e543d0c6de50d5c79fd1f6.png

 

Do you mean’flips’?

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Just now, fromey said:

I’m going to assume not much to talk about in the models then!!

647B8F9B-10CA-4AC2-9779-673384122D5E.gif

I think it's because as per usual the cold set ups keep keep moving back run by run way out in fantasy land ,nothing really to get excited about in the coming 5 days, the mild wedge comes back after tomorrow brief cold spell for most of next week ,need I say more

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Perhaps some colder uppers dropping in from THE NW/N as we progress into the final 3rd, signs of a change perhaps! 🤔

gem-1-240.png

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3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Perhaps some colder uppers dropping in from THE NW/N as we progress into the final 3rd, signs of a change perhaps! 🤔

gem-1-240.png

Thats the GEM 00z?

May as well post the EC 00Z from 12th of November mate..

 

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if we are to get something for the last week of February  it will all come down to the atlantic ridge getting far enough north to either give us a 48h toppler or something better at the 192h mark but I wouldn't bank on either the way our luck has been this season 

image.thumb.png.e88bad52f390f750eb83340f7e068412.pngimage.thumb.png.d90c431b183d19319a091c62f58090b9.png

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats the GEM 00z?

May as well post the EC 00Z from 12th of November mate..

 

Didn't realize, thought I was posting the 12s, was gonna post the CFS, but even that seems to have gone downhill now 

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Trust Day 16 to produce something rather unpleasant? Snizzle in the wind?:hi:

image.thumb.png.3ad2284b46480c78f513f7fb8b35610b.pngimage.thumb.png.50e23124d3a8c982de2b0fa558d7d06f.png  

Lovely charts, for July, though!:fool:

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16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The siberian high should be renamed the chocolate fireguard high.

we no when things look grim when we bring out the impossible its name is there for a reason 

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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Trust Day 16 to produce something rather unpleasant? Snizzle in the wind?

image.thumb.png.3ad2284b46480c78f513f7fb8b35610b.pngimage.thumb.png.50e23124d3a8c982de2b0fa558d7d06f.png  

Lovely charts, for July, though!

You suffering model fatigue like me Ed, I'm starting to see some real hum dinger charts appearing, but I then realised it was Canadian charts I was viewing. That's it, I'll fetch me coat 😭

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29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The siberian high should be renamed the chocolate fireguard high.

Or, to use NW parlance - the CFH?😁

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Seriously though, I think we may be a big step to where we are going this time next week. As regards to the met musings of high pressure perhaps setting up to the NE of us, at least that would possibly bring some colder Conditions to us, hopefully that will put a bit of fight back into the thread! If that fails I've noticed rocky 3 is on itv tonight, if Mr t can't motivate us, who can!!!! 

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The GEFS are a mixed bag at day ten . Some okay solutions in there but we don’t want a halfway house where the Russian high moves west but never far enough or sufficiently north and traps the UK on the wrong side of any upstream amplification.

The MJO forecasts continue to disagree . The GFS takes a slower route to phase 8 . The ECM much quicker . 

I think I’m going to give it to the end of next week to see if we do see that MJO finally deliver some more solid changes in the outputs . 

We could still see something more interesting towards the last week of February but we are entering the last chance saloon now so don’t have the time to see the models doing a jam tomorrow routine .

Edited by nick sussex

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GEFS are a mixed bag at day ten . Some okay solutions in there but we don’t want a halfway house where the Russian high moves west but never far enough or sufficiently north and traps the UK on the wrong side of any upstream amplification.

The MJO forecasts continue to disagree . The GFS takes a slower route to phase 8 . The ECM much quicker . 

I think I’m going to give it to the end of next week to see if we do see that MJO finally deliver some more solid changes in the outputs . 

We could still see something more interesting towards the last week of February but we are entering the last chance saloon now so don’t have the time to see the models doing a jam tomorrow routine .

Seems to me Nick that the models want to go the cold route and are confused as to whether to go the Scandi high or the Greenland high route, and we are getting a combination of the 2 but all the worst features from both and not the best!

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12z ens shows the milder air peaking around Friday afterwards we see a steady drop down on the mean but remaining above the 30-year average after Tuesday

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.59c033fd520e2a1caa658508caeae39a.pnggefsens850Newcastle0.thumb.png.82128004ea7325f4be5857ffbf202a49.pnggefsens850Edinburgh0.thumb.png.8f1602cc352d3c085980c6b81d28df77.png

Edited by Summer Sun

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I can just sense it, knew the Atlantic trough would be the deathknell when Iapennel said it, his record is very good, i can feel it in my bones, we are going to get some stonking amplification to the West, some stonking amplification to the East, but a semi-permanent trough just pumping mild air over the UK.

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31 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Seriously though, I think we may be a big step to where we are going this time next week. As regards to the met musings of high pressure perhaps setting up to the NE of us, at least that would possibly bring some colder Conditions to us, hopefully that will put a bit of fight back into the thread! If that fails I've noticed rocky 3 is on itv tonight, if Mr t can't motivate us, who can!!!! 

The way this winter has panned out, I reckon Mission Impossible would be more apt😀

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I can just sense it, knew the Atlantic trough would be the deathknell when Iapennel said it, his record is very good, i can feel it in my bones, we are going to get some stonking amplification to the West, some stonking amplification to the East, but a semi-permanent trough just pumping mild air over the UK.

When did Ian Pennel say that?  I haven't seen many posts from him this winter, but agree his record is very good.

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8 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

The way this winter has panned out, I reckon Mission Impossible would be more apt😀

Yeh, that and my other favourite... Groundhog day, it's mild out there today... Its mild out there everyday! 😜

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

A fairly settled week ahead according to UKMO

It will be mild by day with Edinburgh as an example shown to have highs of between 10c and 11c from Tuesday to Saturday inclusive

UKMOPEU12_72_1.thumb.png.17523c217180bbfaeb5d80ed647820df.pngUKMOPEU12_96_1.thumb.png.ec5a3a9dd8227d1aa4d9032321e056ec.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.dce8a9c73cd34b5f3729fbb140ac49ea.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.e0efd7119c1950c2c40de2c7e3382089.png

Dare I say it but it will be feeling spring like for a few areas

At least it’ll be decent running and cycling weather and the lakes will be warming up for open water swimming come April 👍

Cant be bothered with the models now. The jigsaw pieces were just not meant to come together this winter.

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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think it was that thread when he talked about the hadley cell expanding due to climate change causing our winters to be crap and was ultimately thinking of leaving the UK as a result as he doesn't see much change.

So, in other words, we may as well not even bother with next winter in Britain or the one after and book holidays to Canada?

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