Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

USA is still broadly above average this winter, though the next 10 days will put a big dent in areas that have thus far been above average. Its only the central northern states that have been decently below average due to that PV lobe that has sat over NE Canada and stretching down SW into the far north of the USA at times.

Anyway, 06z GFS ensembles are fairly grim overall if you want deep cold. Some do look fairly cold at the surface. But probably as many bringing exceptionally mild/record breaking mild as bring in deep cold on the 06z suite....though the 06z was also pretty mild yesterday on the ensembles.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For me it's not so much whether heavy snow can fall and settle in late Feb or early March (since it clearly can) but whether deep, lasting cold with minimal daytime thawing can emerge. 

The magic of the classic cold spells was not just in how much snow fell, but the short days with additional accumulations over a period of several days with the potential for more to come.

We're now wandering into territory akin to being in the middle of Aug, sat under a trough, it's 18 degrees out, and waiting for a 30+ heatwave to develop in early September. It might, but it's becoming less than a puncher's chance with each passing set of outputs. 

I must say either way I'm excited about Spring, and the longer days are a nice tonic after a poor winter. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning peeps 😊

Hope you all are well, alas what a winter it's been, something that was meant to have so much potential from the influence of outside factors but sadly it's a winter that did not win the heart of coldies.

We are on the 9th of Feb today and the silent ticking of the clock carries on, sadly with regret and a sinking feeling to be honest time is really not on our side for the coldies. To be very blunt and honest saying this hurts but my hunch at this moment in time is that a prolonged severe cold spell now looks like a low percentage to me. I know some of you in here may not agree to the downbeat tone but I am just being realistic as I can by judging the current output. Having said this I may be totally wrong and some major change could happen, but it would need to be something dramatic and it needs to happen soon. 

We all have been on this rollercoaster ride together this winter and there has been moments when we saw glimmers of hope and then there had been moments of disparity. That is model watching and that is the UK winter we will win some and we will loose some. Just like to thank everyone who posts on here because that is what keeps this place going and especially those more knowledgable ones who have shared their thoughts.

We still have a good part of February to go who knows if in a weeks time we will be jumping with joy, but as I said my heart tells me different and that's my thinking. Even if we don't scramble anything I know many of us will be back here next year all on this same train trying to find that stop to winter. One day we will get lucky and I am sure it will be worthwhile, till then our waiting will go on.

hope you all have a great day and thanks once again to everyone for sharing your thoughts.

the search  for our winter wonderland will always continue

kind regards 😊😊😊😊

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Morning peeps 😊

Hope you all are well, alas what a winter it's been, something that was meant to have so much potential from the influence of outside factors but sadly it's a winter that did not win the heart of coldies.

We are on the 9th of Feb today and the silent ticking of the clock carries on, sadly with regret and a sinking feeling to be honest time is really not on our side for the coldies. To be very blunt and honest saying this hurts but my hunch at this moment in time is that a prolonged severe cold spell now looks like a low percentage to me. I know some of you in here may not agree to the downbeat tone but I am just being realistic as I can by judging the current output. Having said this I may be totally wrong and some major change could happen, but it would need to be something dramatic and it needs to happen soon. 

We all have been on this rollercoaster ride together this winter and there has been moments when we saw glimmers of hope and then there had been moments of disparity. That is model watching and that is the UK winter we will win some and we will loose some. Just like to thank everyone who posts on here because that is what keeps this place going and especially those more knowledgable ones who have shared their thoughts.

We still have a good part of February to go who knows if in a weeks time we will be jumping with joy, but as I said my heart tells me different and that's my thinking. Even if we don't scramble anything I know many of us will be back here next year all on this same train trying to find that stop to winter. One day we will get lucky and I am sure it will be worthwhile, till then our waiting will go on.

hope you all have a great day and thanks once again to everyone for sharing your thoughts.

the search  for our winter wonderland will always continue

kind regards 😊😊😊😊

I'm. Choking back the tears as I peruse the gfs output now 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Take it from a old fart, March/April can, have and will continue to deliver what winter sometimes doesn't: 1965, 1970, 1975, 1989, 1990, 2006, 2013...2018 all had Springtime snowfall...so I suspect that the preceding winter has little or no effect upon what Spring holds???

Throw in the towel? Not likely!:drinks:

Edited by Ed Stone
Forgot 2013!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Take it from a old fart, March/April can, have and will continue to deliver what winter sometimes doesn't: 1965, 1970, 1975, 1989, 1990, 2006...2018 all had Springtime snowfall...so I suspect that the preceding winter has little or no effect upon what Spring holds???

Throw in the towel? Not likely!

I'll absolutely not be looking for cold after early April and tbh this forum would feel like one for miscreants to me, if lots were still hunting for it by then, to gain pleasure.

The late frosts a couple of years ago did a lot of damage to the horticultural and our fledgling wine industry. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I Have read certain papers regarding scientists who stated back in the 80s there would be no Arctic left by 2010. A recent study by nasa found that sea ice is growing faster during the winter months today than it did a decade ago. This increase of sea ice has helped to slow down the overall reduction in Arctic sea ice and delayed an ice free Arctic. Not gonna drag this thread into a climate discussion, but regarding man made global warming, the climate was actually warmer during the middle ages, long before man made emissions, and its called naturally occurring  climate variability. 

I'm sorry but I haven't heard any scientists predicting there would be no arctic ice in the 2010s. It was only in the late 1990s that scientists thought summer arctic sea ice would go by the 2070s. After 2007 most models suggested it would be the 2030s. So if anything earlier forecasts were far too conservative.

Re the bit highlighted in bold, this is because summer ice has declined so much! so of course the winter sea ice will grow faster because there is more ocean to freeze!!!

In terms of how we can expect this to impact the UK... there will be a decreased temperature gradient from the arctic to the sub-tropics. This will slow the jet down and lead to patterns being more persistent. However if you have a high over Europe you can have a weak jet but still be mild as next weeks model output shows nicely. Even December 2015 had a sluggish jet because low pressure systems didn't really move west to east.... the low pressures were quite often stuck just to the NW of the UK.

Back to the model output specifically and the 06z swingometers show an unchanged picture. February 15th still looks mild and/or anticyclonic.. There are no cold charts to post here. The swingometer also shows how consistent the output has been since February 2nd. So perhaps it should be the latching onto 1 more intriguing op run rather then criticisng the models themselves. Looking at the bigger picture shows how this has been well forecast when looking at the ensemble set as a whole.

image.thumb.png.82ad110a0173afee921d5d5551093e92.png

For Feb 20th the picture is still mixed with mild being the slight favourite for now, the odd blocked run in there but a minority at the moment. P15 would give us a good end to winter.

image.thumb.png.fbc2e8b3647954e336f203aad9ff16c9.pngimage.thumb.png.c449bfbed51c79ae27aa9c9afb38a0e2.png 

Finally I do believe that because of climate change, getting cold spells is harder if there are smaller cold pools to tap into, its basic physics really. Therefore we require more extreme synoptics to pull of a good cold spell.Cold isn't just going to magically appear is it? In the US it is easier because air from the arctic unmodified but with our SSTs more stubborn it becomes more difficult here. As I said a few days back, its still possible but we require more extreme synoptics. Whilst in past decades less impressive synoptics could have done the job.

The global temperature anomalies show a huge pool of mild air across Europe and Eurasia, with the decreasing in size cold pools being confined to pasts of North America, the North Atlantic and parts of the arctic (bit of good news there at least).

image.thumb.png.cea2e09cafbc8b2fa27d8aee9e5cc9e3.pngimage.thumb.png.13411a19f01556e736e087c0a8052ed9.png 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If I remember rightly the heat lovers were still ramping away up into October even after last Summer, so I don't see how we can be dismissing the possibility of some proper winter weather going forward. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we get a good Winter spell in March. Not counting on it but based on 2013 and 2018 alone February just doesn't feel as getting too late as it used to.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, E17boy said:

 

hope you all have a great day and thanks once again to everyone for sharing your thoughts.

the search  for our winter wonderland will always continue

kind regards 😊😊😊😊

Won't you stay another day?

Don't blame you TBH though, maybe next winter will be better but we still have time to grab something from this winter.... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

There is no point in having the hunt for cold then is there ?? It’s not at day 16 it starts around day 8 . What I don’t get is why people come on here if there gonna moan at people posting chars after day 5 ? When the 18z comes out I’ll go up to day 5 to keep you moaners from crying 😢

Sorry.

All I meant was, why people keep getting themselves let down because too much excitement at a long distant . 

sure I love the cold too , I love be to see cold charts but when it looks like cold on the way and often apparently nailed only to be  disappointed. 

Wouldnt it be better to get excited say -3-4-5 days out and even then that can be a letdown but at least that can be better -% chances than at say day 10.  

Why get so excited about something so far off that 9-10 times doesn't materialise then many throw dummies from the pram when it doesn't happen and that's because it wasn't too far out. 

So sorry again but that's all I meant . 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Won't you stay another day?

Don't blame you TBH though, maybe next winter will be better but we still have time to grab something from this winter.... 

I am still here to pick up any crumbs lol 😂 if we are lucky to for that even. Who knows where this high pressure is going to e d up? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, That ECM said:

But the point that is being missed is that charts at day 8/9 are said to be reliable and awful. Yet on the SAME RUN, charts 48 hours later are fi.  That makes a nonsense of the post. 

I agree that even near term it can go drastically wrong or right as the case recently if you like snow and the recent Metoffice and forecasters mistakes with the snowfall in S/W 

yes even 48 hrs out can be a nightmare but -% wise it will be more reliable  than 8-10 or f1 days out .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the models should be restricted to 5 days only, with anything beyond pure guesswork and wonder.  Would help keep the stress levels in check 🙂

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, offerman said:

Sorry.

All I meant was, why people keep getting themselves let down because too much excitement at a long distant . 

sure I love the cold too , I love be to see cold charts but when it looks like cold on the way and often apparently nailed only to be  disappointed. 

Wouldnt it be better to get excited say -3-4-5 days out and even then that can be a letdown but at least that can be better -% chances than at say day 10.  

Why get so excited about something so far off that 9-10 times doesn't materialise then many throw dummies from the pram when it doesn't happen and that's because it wasn't too far out. 

So sorry again but that's all I meant . 

 

Totally agree with you hundred percent. Even charts going up to three days change so what chance is there for a chart 10 days and beyond sticking to the guns. I think as human nature dictates because our hearts are hunting for that bit of cold anything we see even 10 days alway gives us hope although deep down we know there may be an error in verification. It's the hope element that keeps us going and the one question that may be it will verefy 😊

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, offerman said:

I agree that even near term it can go drastically wrong or right as the case recently if you like snow and the recent Metoffice and forecasters mistakes with the snowfall in S/W 

yes even 48 hrs out can be a nightmare but -% wise it will be more reliable  than 8-10 or f1 days out .

Yes I do think F1 days out will be a let down since Kimi Raikkonen has been demoted to Sauber and Lewis Hamilton will probably stroll to another world title this year. There's a prediction that may well come off!

Still the odd blocked member deep into FI so the mild spell may go all Pastor Maldonado and we get a cold spell into late Feb or early March. They can still be of interest but we require something special.

We will probably find ourselves going round in circles again though...

Edited by Quicksilver1989

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Don said:

I think the models should be restricted to 5 days only, with anything beyond pure guesswork and wonder.  Would help keep the stress levels in check 🙂

👍👍👍

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yes I do think F1 days out will be a let down since Kimi Raikkonen has been demoted to Sauber and Lewis Hamilton will probably stroll to another world title this year. There's a prediction that may well come off!

Still the odd blocked member deep into FI so the mild spell may go all Pastor Maldonado and we get a cold spell into late Feb or early March. They can still be of interest but we require something special.

We will probably find ourselves going round in circles again though...

Should be called the Bermuda model circle where all the tasty charts 10 days away disappear mysteriously 😄

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, snowfish1 said:

I'm. Choking back the tears as I peruse the gfs output now 

To the tune of 'Land of Hope and Glory'....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Duely noted, either way you sum this up, like you state, colder pools may shrink, they could possibly increase due to a significantly distorted polar vortex!! Not to mention the balance of fresh salt water in the oceans being severely disrupted! This could be many years away, personally I think it's the start. Global warming may well lead to a major cooling trend. Anyway just my thoughts, anyway for the hear and now, not much hapoening up until next week, there after a good chance of high pressure building to the NE. So an increasing risk of colder conditions devoloping, and even snow into some parts. One to watch for sure, certainly not a winter is over scenario. 

 

Yes there is the possibility that mid Latitudes may turn colder during winter months if the AMOC changes its behaviour, it did slow down during 2010 for example. This wouldn't lead to a drop in global temperature (it may be a slight negative feedback), it would lead to a complete change in the distribution of warmer temperatures. Warming over the tropics would increase dramatically as it won't be released over mid latitudes during winter months.

As I say 2010 was a good example of this with its exceptional tropical warmth to compensate for colder mid-latitudes. A weaker Atlantic could also result in hotter summers here but that would be going off topic 😊

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Only just seen the 06Z and im surprised at some of the comments, or lack of.

GFSPARAEU06_384_1.png

Yes I know its +384 but at least the GH is back making an appearance.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought the same @TEITS but didn't want to mention it for fear of getting shot down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Only just seen the 06Z and im surprised at some of the comments, or lack of.

GFSPARAEU06_384_1.png

Yes I know its +384 but at least the GH is back making an appearance.

 

+384 that's sometime next winter and a totally different thread :oldrofl:

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Blizzardof82 said:

I thought the same @TEITS but didn't want to mention it for fear of getting shot down.

I think people are too used to being  taken in by the models this year.  Hence the lack of comments.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Take it from a old fart, March/April can, have and will continue to deliver what winter sometimes doesn't: 1965, 1970, 1975, 1989, 1990, 2006, 2013...2018 all had Springtime snowfall...so I suspect that the preceding winter has little or no effect upon what Spring holds???

Throw in the towel? Not likely!

Yay I like you buddy x

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The gfsp simply reminds us that the option remains on the menu - but it will take a lot more than an appearance at day 15/16 for us to take it at all seriously. 

Gefs have flattered over the last couple days, throwing up the odd fi amplification to our nw which looks to be of a sustained nature ...yet they havent been ale to make it stick or gain any momentum

hence the downbeat nature of the thread today. 

im not one for March winters down here. A one day snowfall doesn’t float my boat ..... it’s more of an aggravation than anything else!  last years bfte was with sub 510 dam thicknesses ......deliver that I’m on board. But it’s so unlikely. 

Give the nwp a week and then roll on spring ! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...