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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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38 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Well I suggest this thread is retired.  The climate has changed to such an extent that I would go so far as to say the models , particularly long range are now not really of much use . I was looking at historical northern hemisphere winter charts the other day and I am of the opinion that the cold air has diminished over arctic areas . Consequently (my gut feeling) there is simply less colder air to make it to our latitude . If for example temperatures in the Arctic  are say 3c warmer than it doesn’t take much science to realise that whatever airmass arrives will be up to that warmer. Result clearly obvious in recent summers particularly. The signals were pointing to a cold winter and northern blocking yet there has been none. At best that means the models are seriously flawed at worst the planet is in serious trouble and they are not picking up on it . With regards to this so called winter . It’s been the worst by a country mile with the model performance . All rather embarrassing when I’ve told friends and family the science behind what was going to happen. I seriously think this winter has had it now . The next two weeks look like nothing.I suggest people give up on it . I for one a massive snow lover have realised this and I am now looking forward to spring . How about a hunt for spring thread ? Having posted this the 6z will probably bring the beast in at 144hrs ! 

And yet parts of the USA have seen the most brutal cold in a generation....

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A gentle reminder that we're meant to be discussing model output in this thread please. There are two specific threads at the top of the 'Winter and General Weather' area for discussing the wider aspects of how this winter has or hasn't gone for the UK and other places. Thank you.

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39 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

With regards to this so called winter . It’s been the worst by a country mile with the model performance . All rather embarrassing when I’ve told friends and family the science behind what was going to happen.

I agree with this. 😀 Mind you I wouldn't say I was embarrassed. I've just lost a bit of credibility. Hey ho, hardly too big a deal!😁

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40C this summer anyone . . . 😂😂😂

I may be wrong, but it does seem that nowadays, far more factors have to be just right to get cold to the UK.

But having lived through the late 80s and 90s winters where cold was rare, I’m prepared to accept that we might be in such a run again.

 

 

 

Edited by Djdazzle

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1 minute ago, Premier Neige said:

No need to be sarcastic. Just commenting on your 3c warmer opinion. To me it doesn't really add up. 

I'm gonna post some charts in the general winter discussion thread , just what I think

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Read a post on Facebook yesterday that the jet stream is below the equator and has been since the 23rd January 2019? Does anyone know whether this really is true and/or correct? And if so, what effect this would have upon the weather?

Edited by Jason74

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I think it was JH that said here the other day 'maybe the SSW event has been and gone'.

The evidence is compelling imo that it has done just that,and any scraps we might pick up now before spring will be a reaction to other global drivers.

The reaction to the end of December SSW event was felt to the East and South of the British Isles during January, with biblical snowfall and a freeze up in several European countries.

What we saw in the UK toward the months end imo was the 'fag end' of the SSW event,pretty much getting every last drop out of what,on the face of it, wasn't a particularly great set up for snowfall.

Might just have to count our blessings that some people had decent snowfall over a two week coldish spell.

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End of Feb most likely landing point for any cold, thats if we see the hoped for MJO response.

Would be interested to hear from GP as to what has gone so horribly wrong for us.

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Unfortunately not every SSW is going to be beneficial for us, I'd say we've had a fairly good run upto now of them doing the business, even if delayed such as 2013 (and who knows, still not impossible even now for that to be the case).

Also I really feel people have been spoiled by the Beast last year. I can only ever recall in all my time of looking through the archives, maybe 2 set-ups that evolved in a similar fashion in the last 70 or so years. So that would suggest a once in 30-40 year event happened last March. To expect that evolution in any given winter is pretty unlikely and anyone who harbours that as a realistic expectation, is being very UNrealistic.

Anyway main story today is less about the cold (though night times would probably stand a fair chance of being cold still) and more about a prolonged dry spell being suggested by the models with high pressure being mostly in charge. Hopefluly we can have some clean air so we can at least get a decent frosty spell if nothing else. We may still get lucky with regards to the blocking placement as well, the ensembles aren't completely opposed to it still, but knowing this winters track record with even half hearted ridges...

 

Edited by kold weather

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

End of Feb most likely landing point for any cold, thats if we see the hoped for MJO response.

Would be interested to hear from GP as to what has gone so horribly wrong for us.

I too would be interested along with hearing from Chionomaniac and Bring Back 1962-3.

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Right I'm sticking these charts in here . Courtesy of Meteociel. I'm not smart enough to calculate the area covered by -28hpa but to my eye there looks less with recent decades. I've picked todays date from last 7 decades on todays date . Is this just a trick of the eye? to me there looks a lot less in recent decades of really cold air in Arctic regions hence what I was banging on about  

1959.png

1969.png

1979.png

1989.png

1999.png

2009.png

2019.png

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15 minutes ago, Jason74 said:

Read a post on Facebook yesterday that the jet stream is below the equator and has been since the 23rd January 2019? Does anyone know whether this really is true and/or correct? And if so, what effect this would have upon the weather?

you shouldn’t believe everything you read on facebook.. there is a subtrop jet stream and polar jet steam, the former being closer to the equator and the latter relevant to us 

 

 

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February 1998 anyone? Early spring on the way if this mornings models are to be believed! Certainly a step away from any potential wintry weather across the board this morning 

ECM.thumb.png.92de67cfcc36a8a3c2ea4b1a346e9272.pngGFS.thumb.png.e408c03219837fff9f7ed4adb217e2d1.pngGFS.thumb.jpg.63f69f30d89efd27bc387ee2b3c9ad06.jpg

Maybe we should have a "hunt for Spring" thread.. 

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Kudos to @Bristle boy for arguably the most accurate winter forecast of the season: we have indeed 'fed off the scraps' for the entire winter! 👍

The above notwithstanding the fact that something truly remarkable might happen, over the next 19 days...Though, I'm not counting on it, given the current model output!😭

 

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9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

you shouldn’t believe everything you read on facebook.. there is a subtrop jet stream and polar jet steam, the former being closer to the equator and the latter relevant to us 

 

 

Plus as well that there are always Jet streams below the equator, the Southern Hemisphere Jetstreams!

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After a dry January February isn't looking particularly wet either

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.289caee0b5a1eff7a10218d920e65b7d.pnggefsens850Newcastle0.thumb.png.6f29d8bd6b125515f600d049d1e3b53b.pnggefsens850Edinburgh0.thumb.png.e3ccb2d1cbdf6fa80f3b591581881720.png

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1 hour ago, snowspotter said:

Well I suggest this thread is retired.  The climate has changed to such an extent that I would go so far as to say the models , particularly long range are now not really of much use . 

What makes you think long range forecasting was much better 20 to 30 years ago to now?

The answer is it wasn't

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22 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

February 1998 anyone? Early spring on the way if this mornings models are to be believed! Certainly a step away from any potential wintry weather across the board this morning 

ECM.thumb.png.92de67cfcc36a8a3c2ea4b1a346e9272.pngGFS.thumb.png.e408c03219837fff9f7ed4adb217e2d1.pngGFS.thumb.jpg.63f69f30d89efd27bc387ee2b3c9ad06.jpg

Maybe we should have a "hunt for Spring" thread.. 

It doesn't look quite as stubborn, but briefly it does have similarities for sure. I think we should just have amplification to avoid that fate in the longer term, but could get pretty mild for a time unless we get a good clean high come in.

Also, as summer sun said, probably the dryness is the main feature on the models this morning. Though this week just gone will probably mean unless we have a truly dry spell, we won't be that much below average this  month even if the high does hang around.

Edited by kold weather

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

It doesn't look quite as stubborn, but briefly it does have similarities for sure. I think we should just have amplification to avoid that fate in the longer term, but could get pretty mild for a time unless we get a good clean high come in.

We are looking at late Feb now mate- the last hope is MJO phase 8- we may get a decent northerly via Greeny height rises.

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The amount of negativity in here this morning is bordering on the unhealthy. I think all those who keep threatening to throw the towel in should do just that asap so the rest of us can move on, whether there is any cold left this winter or not.

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37 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Right I'm sticking these charts in here . Courtesy of Meteociel. I'm not smart enough to calculate the area covered by -28hpa but to my eye there looks less with recent decades. I've picked todays date from last 7 decades on todays date . Is this just a trick of the eye? to me there looks a lot less in recent decades of really cold air in Arctic regions hence what I was banging on about  

1959.png

1969.png

1979.png

1989.png

1999.png

2009.png

2019.png

Certainly looks like less, but I do wonder how good the resolution was for past decades.

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25 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

February 1998 anyone? Early spring on the way if this mornings models are to be believed! Certainly a step away from any potential wintry weather across the board this morning 

ECM.thumb.png.92de67cfcc36a8a3c2ea4b1a346e9272.pngGFS.thumb.png.e408c03219837fff9f7ed4adb217e2d1.pngGFS.thumb.jpg.63f69f30d89efd27bc387ee2b3c9ad06.jpg

Maybe we should have a "hunt for Spring" thread.. 

We paid for February 1998 with April 1998. Snow fell each day of that Easter weekend and had two days where snow lay at 9am just after that Easter break. 

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3 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Certainly looks like less, but I do wonder how good the resolution was for past decades.

I think this is probably largely the reason. Models were likely lower resolution back then so you weren't able to see the actual temperatures in quite so much detail. I suspect thanks to climate change the Arctic is less cold in the winter months than it was back then too, but the resolution of the charts likely the biggest factor. 

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