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It does look like what the GFS saw yesterday (12z) around D10 was an overreaction and subsequent runs have tamed.

The push of warmer air to Greenland is now modelled to be very transient, a toppler pushing the warmth east and pumping up the UK high again.

Repeating patterns have been the name of our game for some time and for me there is no reason I can see that this will change. The non-downwelling, lack of MJO feedback and omnipresent Atlantic wave train are my basis for this. 

The D16 mean does not even have nascent promise:

1882293905_gensnh-21-1-384(9).thumb.png.0eb3f1a6b97ffa3e486d68bb2efad6c8.png   London >>>graphe6_1000_308_150___.thumb.gif.5b1c6dbe4718d4deefef8192a0bd47f9.gif

The PV despite the SSW has been strong and a firm driver of the trop weather throughout the winter, and the forecast shows little sign of decay or disruption.

HP dominant from Monday for my region, surface conditions and therefore temps may vary but warmer than average and likely since Nov to the end of Feb the CET will have been above average and statistically a very mild Winter!

 

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Should’ve gone to specsavers UKMO is quite nice Atlantic trough also disrupting a less flat outcome surely compared to GFS..

A09E9F3B-B4E4-4449-8EAB-A5AF82C64677.thumb.gif.04234bc2a2fc90d09a40d880b00f20de.gif

If you're after cold and snow,that chart is abysmal wuth the vortex just churning over Greenland.

Westerly's will follow.

Edited by joggs
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If we can’t get cold (which is there is zero sign of), then let’s look forward to spring. And use this winter as a massive learning curve.

Edited by Djdazzle
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1 minute ago, IDO said:

It does look like what the GFS saw yesterday (12z) around D10 was an overreaction and subsequent runs have tamed.

The push of warmer air to Greenland is now modelled to be very transient, a toppler pushing the warmth east and pumping up the UK high again.

Repeating patterns have been the name of our game for some time and for me there is no reason I can see that this will change. The non-downwelling, lack of MJO feedback and omnipresent Atlantic wave train are my basis for this. 

The D16 mean does not even have nascent promise:

1882293905_gensnh-21-1-384(9).thumb.png.0eb3f1a6b97ffa3e486d68bb2efad6c8.png   London >>>graphe6_1000_308_150___.thumb.gif.5b1c6dbe4718d4deefef8192a0bd47f9.gif

The PV despite the SSW has been strong and a firm driver of the trop weather throughout the winter, and the forecast shows little sign of decay or disruption.

HP dominant from Monday for my region, surface conditions and therefore temps may vary but warmer than average and likely since Nov to the end of Feb the CET will have been above average and statistically a very mild Winter!

 

On current viewings it’s hard to disagree with the above. This winter has been a drain but at the same time the constant let downs and hype have been strangely compelling.

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28 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

And all my positivity from yesterday is blown away this morning. No dressing it up it’s a bore fest . This winter just will not deliver . 

Have a good weekend . See you all around November. ?

Based on what exactly, believing fl charts are going to verify,? same as IDO continually posting day 16 mean charts which again never verify but still he continues to do it  for some reason

ECM doesn't look  too bad either. 

Edited by SLEETY
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It’s not over till it’s over but it’s looking close to being over !

After some promise earlier in the week the models have just been on a downward spiral with any amplitude disappearing and the high stuck to the south with nowhere to go .

The last vestige of hope is now the MJO .  If that lands as forecast  in phase 8 with a decent amplitude. With the time lag though we wouldn’t expect to see that show up in the models till later in the month.

 

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21 minutes ago, IDO said:

It does look like what the GFS saw yesterday (12z) around D10 was an overreaction and subsequent runs have tamed.

The push of warmer air to Greenland is now modelled to be very transient, a toppler pushing the warmth east and pumping up the UK high again.

Repeating patterns have been the name of our game for some time and for me there is no reason I can see that this will change. The non-downwelling, lack of MJO feedback and omnipresent Atlantic wave train are my basis for this. 

The D16 mean does not even have nascent promise:

1882293905_gensnh-21-1-384(9).thumb.png.0eb3f1a6b97ffa3e486d68bb2efad6c8.png   London >>>graphe6_1000_308_150___.thumb.gif.5b1c6dbe4718d4deefef8192a0bd47f9.gif

The PV despite the SSW has been strong and a firm driver of the trop weather throughout the winter, and the forecast shows little sign of decay or disruption.

HP dominant from Monday for my region, surface conditions and therefore temps may vary but warmer than average and likely since Nov to the end of Feb the CET will have been above average and statistically a very mild Winter!

 

Yesterday’s 10 chart was wrong today’s day 10 chart is right

 

 

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Models are really gunning for southern euro heights this morning. At the end of FI the gfsp is notable for the Spanish plume that just misses us to our east. For feb some extraordinary 850s across Spain and France. This type of scenario isn’t a complete outlier either albeit given the range it’s clearly just for passing interest. 

in terms of cold there are several gefs that go very cold towards the end but again all way out beyond day 10. Ecm could easily go cold beyond day 10. 

So in my mind I think we’re just a few days away now from getting ready to throw the towel in terms of a notable spell of deep cold this winter. That certainly doesn’t preclude some traditional transient heavy snow events through early March though.

For me this winter has been one of complete lack of promise tbh. I completely get the whole background, teleconnections, ssw thing and nobody will ever see me criticize any of it because it has its place, but in terms of the considerable amount of output we can see there has rarely been any thing much of note shown at all. In fact to get through winter with only one major easterly letdown is noteworthy of itself. Accepting of course that we are not quite done yet, this winter looks like finishing as a largely mild, dry and generally benign season (albeit accepting it’s not particularly benign this morning outside!).

Edit: just seen ido post. The day 16 mean is utterly meaningless this morning. Probably 75% of the gefs are mild or very mild at that range, with the remaining 25% very cold or heading that way. As per above I think the cold solution is very unlikely but only rarely is a day 16 mean chart of any value and today is not one of those rare accasions imho.

 

 

 

 

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Edited by Jason M
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15 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

If we can’t get cold (which is there is zero sign of), then let’s look forward to spring. And use this winter as a massive learning curve.

That will never happen, there will be just as many tantrums and tears next year - and long may it continue ??

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2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Yesterday’s 10 chart was wrong today’s day 10 chart is right?

 

 

 

When they downgrade from cold to meh, then yesterday's is likely wrong, 99/100 times from my experience!

When models spot a pattern change they nearly always go OTT, and subsequent runs invariably downgrade. GFS was quicker with a correction this time. The 12z op yesterday was bordering on outlier and was for sure outside standard deviation. But I explained my reasons and if you believe this Winter is going to suddenly change then some meat on the bone would be helpful?

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10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s not over till it’s over but it’s looking close to being over !

After some promise earlier in the week the models have just been on a downward spiral with any amplitude disappearing and the high stuck to the south with nowhere to go .

The last vestige of hope is now the MJO .  If that lands as forecast  in phase 8 with a decent amplitude. With the time lag though we wouldn’t expect to see that show up in the models till later in the month.

 

The door is slightly ajar at day 6/7 (and icon goes on an isolated journey which could be a toss of a coin job) but the ridge cannot gain any traction at a decent latitude across the modelling to allow us to advert any proper cold west below it. 

i have no confidence in the MJO because thus far it’s not done a good job this winter on its analogues and whilst there are potentially reasons why this uocoming period could see that change (s Pacific telecons now looking like they will be reflecting nino state), the extended modelling just isn’t seeing the analogue for phase  8 in the distance. 

i suspect the fairly unique nature of this winter re the massive quite early SSW and downwelling w QBO and a nino with a fairly Nina atmospheric repsonse has dictated that the post ten day modelling is pretty unreliable for much detail.  The late jan euro trough apart, it’s not been too good. 

unless we see a notable flip in the extended ens across the nwp within a week, then we’re struggling to see any decent surface wintry conditions across nw Europe this side of March and we know what that means ...........

let’s see what tomorrows nwp brings .........

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18 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Based on what exactly, believing fl charts are going to verify,? same as IDO continually posting day 16 mean charts which again never verify but still he continues to do it  for some reason

ECM doesn't look  too bad either. 

2

Statistically, a D15 mean is as likely to verify as well as a D10 ECM op. NCEP no longer publish the mean verification so cannot post, but I did look into that the last few winters.

As for the ECM D10 chart which I assume "doesn't look too bad either" it has a cut-off low to the west and the pattern will flatten again as heights are channelled through the trough, pumping up the UK high again! You can see the direction of travel of the warmer uppers, west-east:

ECE0-240.thumb.gif.80bf896a6b697b4a96b92c784ac77e38.gif

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4 minutes ago, IDO said:

When they downgrade from cold to meh, then yesterday's is likely wrong, 99/100 times from my experience!

When models spot a pattern change they nearly always go OTT, and subsequent runs invariably downgrade. GFS was quicker with a correction this time. The 12z op yesterday was bordering on outlier and was for sure outside standard deviation. But I explained my reasons and if you believe this Winter is going to suddenly change then some meat on the bone would be helpful?

Whilst I disagree with your use of the day 16 mean chart to illustrate your point it’s hard to disagree with the conclusion sadly.

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Well I suggest this thread is retired.  The climate has changed to such an extent that I would go so far as to say the models , particularly long range are now not really of much use . I was looking at historical northern hemisphere winter charts the other day and I am of the opinion that the cold air has diminished over arctic areas . Consequently (my gut feeling) there is simply less colder air to make it to our latitude . If for example temperatures in the Arctic  are say 3c warmer than it doesn’t take much science to realise that whatever airmass arrives will be up to that warmer. Result clearly obvious in recent summers particularly. The signals were pointing to a cold winter and northern blocking yet there has been none. At best that means the models are seriously flawed at worst the planet is in serious trouble and they are not picking up on it . With regards to this so called winter . It’s been the worst by a country mile with the model performance . All rather embarrassing when I’ve told friends and family the science behind what was going to happen. I seriously think this winter has had it now . The next two weeks look like nothing.I suggest people give up on it . I for one a massive snow lover have realised this and I am now looking forward to spring . How about a hunt for spring thread ? Having posted this the 6z will probably bring the beast in at 144hrs ! 

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1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

And all my positivity from yesterday is blown away this morning. No dressing it up it’s a bore fest . This winter just will not deliver . 

Have a good weekend . See you all around November. ?

Thats more like it buddy!!i like how your being a bit more realistic this morning instead of positive for the heck of it!!was only a matter of time buddy?!!anyway yup winter is pretty much over unless the models do one of those 2013 u-turns at a very short time frame!!!for all the guys still hunting good luck and god reward you with a result lol!!

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9 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Well I suggest this thread is retired.  The climate has changed to such an extent that I would go so far as to say the models , particularly long range are now not really of much use . I was looking at historical northern hemisphere winter charts the other day and I am of the opinion that the cold air has diminished over arctic areas . Consequently (my gut feeling) there is simply less colder air to make it to our latitude . If for example temperatures in the Arctic  are say 3c warmer than it doesn’t take much science to realise that whatever airmass arrives will be up to that warmer. Result clearly obvious in recent summers particularly. The signals were pointing to a cold winter and northern blocking yet there has been none. At best that means the models are seriously flawed at worst the planet is in serious trouble and they are not picking up on it . With regards to this so called winter . It’s been the worst by a country mile with the model performance . All rather embarrassing when I’ve told friends and family the science behind what was going to happen. I seriously think this winter has had it now . The next two weeks look like nothing.I suggest people give up on it . I for one a massive snow lover have realised this and I am now looking forward to spring . How about a hunt for spring thread ? Having posted this the 6z will probably bring the beast in at 144hrs ! 

Just because it’s been bad for the uk doesn’t mean it’s been bad for the whole northern hemisphere. I’m sure the Americans aren’t moaning. 

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Well, our last chance of Winter is hanging on the MJO and it's now low looking certain to enter Phase 8 early next week and increasing to a decent amplitude. So with a 7 to 14 day time lag for a response, it's the fag end of the month before we can expect an impact. However, I would be very disappointed, if come Monday's EPS that we don't start seeing a firm response. 

image.thumb.png.3da1eed1aa31f284ad5d08328a125de1.png

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The ECM mean is getting milder for the period around the 14th/15th yesterday 12z it was around +5 today 00z it is around +7

Afterwards a gradual fall back down closer to the average but anything really cold remains beyond D10

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.f7a85faf0e910b6c3113c098c072981a.png

The op is on the mild side of the mean towards the end as per the 12z

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9 hours ago, Ice Day said:

I'm saying 'yes'!!  I love winter on here.  To be honest, the chase is more enjoyable than actually seeing the white stuff falling from the sky.  There is still 3 to 4 weeks of interest until I move into spring mode.  I think the last week of Feb will probably deliver from the north east / east..... but then again I've been feeling that since December 21st!!!  

I'm girding my loins for the last big winter effort of 2019.

So that's why the people here in this thread ignored the cold spell, always have wondered about that.

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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Based on what exactly, believing fl charts are going to verify,? same as IDO continually posting day 16 mean charts which again never verify but still he continues to do it  for some reason

ECM doesn't look  too bad either. 

I agree with your last sentence, in that there could be slight frosts followed by warmish sunny days coming up. Pleasant for me and just as pleasing as a crisp day in Autumn. 

I detest day after day of endless cloud and suffer a bit from SAD.

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30 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Well I suggest this thread is retired.  The climate has changed to such an extent that I would go so far as to say the models , particularly long range are now not really of much use . I was looking at historical northern hemisphere winter charts the other day and I am of the opinion that the cold air has diminished over arctic areas . Consequently (my gut feeling) there is simply less colder air to make it to our latitude . If for example temperatures in the Arctic  are say 3c warmer than it doesn’t take much science to realise that whatever airmass arrives will be up to that warmer. Result clearly obvious in recent summers particularly. The signals were pointing to a cold winter and northern blocking yet there has been none. At best that means the models are seriously flawed at worst the planet is in serious trouble and they are not picking up on it . With regards to this so called winter . It’s been the worst by a country mile with the model performance . All rather embarrassing when I’ve told friends and family the science behind what was going to happen. I seriously think this winter has had it now . The next two weeks look like nothing.I suggest people give up on it . I for one a massive snow lover have realised this and I am now looking forward to spring . How about a hunt for spring thread ? Having posted this the 6z will probably bring the beast in at 144hrs ! 

Are you on a wind up haha? You've seen the cold weather events across the NH haven't you? Lol

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23 minutes ago, shaky said:

Thats more like it buddy!!i like how your being a bit more realistic this morning instead of positive for the heck of it!!was only a matter of time buddy?!!anyway yup winter is pretty much over unless the models do one of those 2013 u-turns at a very short time frame!!!for all the guys still hunting good luck and god reward you with a result lol!!

Is this a jekyll and hyde thing? It's very random that's for sure lol 

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31 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Really quick from me this morning..

Which ties in nicely with the mood in here this morn..

-premature MISScalculation..

More later.

X

It seems to me, you've been doing this a lot of this, this winter tbh.

Edited by Steve C
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4 minutes ago, Rambo said:

Are you on a wind up haha? You've seen the cold weather events across the NH haven't you? Lol

 

24 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

Just because it’s been bad for the uk doesn’t mean it’s been bad for the whole northern hemisphere. I’m sure the Americans aren’t moaning. 

No not at all . In fact I include the USA.  One polar vortex outbreak in USA does not equal a cold winter. You may as well pick out Siberia . Question overall has the USA and Canada had a colder than average Winter? I'm looking at overall northern hemisphere cold distribution and there is less of it to go round

Edited by snowspotter
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