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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Oh yes 

5AAD2EF6-9A12-43B9-9A00-227B17B635B1.png

Looks good in isolation, but it's a toppling high so won't bring anything of note.  Not trying to be negative, but this isn't a great run for longevity.  All is not lost though, FI is around 96 so medium range improvements could crop up at any time.

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Prefer the neg tilt of the 12z .....another run that builds the greeny high  courtesy of a ridge off the esb rather than retrogression 

Yes the 12z was better but at least it’s keeping with the theme of the greeny high . 

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3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Looks good in isolation, but it's a toppling high so won't bring anything of note.  Not trying to be negative, but this isn't a great run for longevity.  All is not lost though, FI is around 96 so medium range improvements could crop up at any time.

Yep variations of the same theme but the 12z was better . 

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

The high really pumping up at the end . Good to see . Only trends at the min . 

895BEB18-83E3-43FB-9454-4F14C017C1BF.png

Pump up the jam, pump it up, pump it up a little more, get the party going on the dance floor!

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18 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Anyone still got some energy left for one more cold chase?

 

I'm saying 'yes'!!  I love winter on here.  To be honest, the chase is more enjoyable than actually seeing the white stuff falling from the sky.  There is still 3 to 4 weeks of interest until I move into spring mode.  I think the last week of Feb will probably deliver from the north east / east..... but then again I've been feeling that since December 21st!!!  

I'm girding my loins for the last big winter effort of 2019.

Edited by Ice Day
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There will be big changes on the 0z compared to the 12 and 18z - not sure whether for the better or not but that is my prediction, perhaps things will become a little clearer as well by this time tomorrow.

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26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There will be big changes on the 0z compared to the 12 and 18z - not sure whether for the better or not but that is my prediction, perhaps things will become a little clearer as well by this time tomorrow.

Let's hope its an improvement just for once. 

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Sitting in departures at Manchester airport on the way to Spain where spring has arrived early, 21c today on the Costa Blanca today.

For those you just getting up don't bother looking at the models, MetO is terrible at 144 (3000 mile wide Bartlett) and GFS is pants at 240 (boring beyond belief).

If there is any signal for cold it must be way out in La la land (beyond the orbit of Pluto)  so I couldn't be bothered to look.

Just 19 days to go until this awful winter is finally put out of its long misery, never has a winter promised so much and delivered so little.

Andy

 

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29 minutes ago, blackrose73 said:

I love this forum, I very rarely post in here because even though I've been a member of this site for years, I'm still not that confident about reading the charts. There are some posters in here that I respect immensely, and I know the ones I trust to give a realistic view. It has to be said though, lately there's been more drama queens in here than RuPaul's drag race! It's been quite amusing at times. On a serious note though, it can be very very confusing in here at times with some posters claiming that it's all looking good for cold, and then the next post is from someone claiming there's no cold showing in the charts! It can be really difficult to get to grips with what's going on. I'm certainly not having a go at anyone in particular, just pointing out that it can be quite bewildering in here at times and it's difficult to gauge who is being balanced about it all. Year after year it never ceases to amaze me how difficult it is to actually get some decent cold/snowy weather here in the UK. But I guess that's the curse of being an island on the edge of an ocean. Anyway, I'll shut up now. At least I have seen some snow here in Wales this winter, albeit short-lived.

Go to Gavsweathervids you tube ....

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1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

Sitting in departures at Manchester airport on the way to Spain where spring has arrived early, 21c today on the Costa Blanca today.

For those you just getting up don't bother looking at the models, MetO is terrible at 144 (3000 mile wide Bartlett) and GFS is pants at 240 (boring beyond belief).

If there is any signal for cold it must be way out in La la land (beyond the orbit of Pluto)  so I couldn't be bothered to look.

Just 19 days to go until this awful winter is finally put out of its long misery, never has a winter promised so much and delivered so little.

Andy

 

Should’ve gone to specsavers UKMO is quite nice Atlantic trough also disrupting a less flat outcome surely compared to GFS..

A09E9F3B-B4E4-4449-8EAB-A5AF82C64677.thumb.gif.04234bc2a2fc90d09a40d880b00f20de.gif

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And all my positivity from yesterday is blown away this morning. No dressing it up it’s a bore fest . This winter just will not deliver . 

Have a good weekend . See you all around November. ?

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2 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

Sitting in departures at Manchester airport on the way to Spain where spring has arrived early, 21c today on the Costa Blanca today.

For those you just getting up don't bother looking at the models, MetO is terrible at 144 (3000 mile wide Bartlett) and GFS is pants at 240 (boring beyond belief).

If there is any signal for cold it must be way out in La la land (beyond the orbit of Pluto)  so I couldn't be bothered to look.

Just 19 days to go until this awful winter is finally put out of its long misery, never has a winter promised so much and delivered so little.

Andy

 

Basically, I’m going to be sat on a beach, drinking a cold one with a hankie on my head and just to emphasise this fact I’ll over exaggerate the mornings output?? I will keep looking as there is more than enough to keep me interested? have a good holiday, sounds like someone needs one??

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8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

And all my positivity from yesterday is blown away this morning. No dressing it up it’s a bore fest . This winter just will not deliver . 

Have a good weekend . See you all around November. ?

Yes unfortunately for cold fans it's looking mild and benign virtually all the way this morning.

There's a bit of a February 2008 feel from the GFS this morning. Although I would welcome an early taste of spring, I just hope if it does happen that we don't end up suffering for it later on as in 2008.

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It does look like what the GFS saw yesterday (12z) around D10 was an overreaction and subsequent runs have tamed.

The push of warmer air to Greenland is now modelled to be very transient, a toppler pushing the warmth east and pumping up the UK high again.

Repeating patterns have been the name of our game for some time and for me there is no reason I can see that this will change. The non-downwelling, lack of MJO feedback and omnipresent Atlantic wave train are my basis for this. 

The D16 mean does not even have nascent promise:

1882293905_gensnh-21-1-384(9).thumb.png.0eb3f1a6b97ffa3e486d68bb2efad6c8.png   London >>>graphe6_1000_308_150___.thumb.gif.5b1c6dbe4718d4deefef8192a0bd47f9.gif

The PV despite the SSW has been strong and a firm driver of the trop weather throughout the winter, and the forecast shows little sign of decay or disruption.

HP dominant from Monday for my region, surface conditions and therefore temps may vary but warmer than average and likely since Nov to the end of Feb the CET will have been above average and statistically a very mild Winter!

 

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1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Should’ve gone to specsavers UKMO is quite nice Atlantic trough also disrupting a less flat outcome surely compared to GFS..

A09E9F3B-B4E4-4449-8EAB-A5AF82C64677.thumb.gif.04234bc2a2fc90d09a40d880b00f20de.gif

If you're after cold and snow,that chart is abysmal wuth the vortex just churning over Greenland.

Westerly's will follow.

Edited by joggs
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