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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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Day 9 GFS 12z CEB1CD23-6D5C-4CE2-803F-2893A727E89D.thumb.png.e98510445556bd3684cdf52c4691bdab.png

 

ECM 12z day 10 2F44A131-1FDB-4287-8A3B-246BD71AABBB.thumb.png.f4f8229b2362c436a3cb1edbfa0c3de9.png

 

Very very similar and we all know where the gfs went after . Doh I’ve done it again posted charts after day 5 😮

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Some posts seeming to talk up colder weather, others saying there is nothing in the output to suggest it. At the end of the day the all important wind direction will depend on subtle shifts in the energy and phasing of atmospheric waves across our part of the hemisphere. So as these waves slow down a blocking high pressure is likely to form across NW Europe. The position of this is gonna be crucial to how cold we can get. So next week as we all no is looking rather mehh,  benign if you like, I think we are starting to see some evidence of a blocking high  drifting into scandanavia by perhaps later next weekend. As you no once established blocking highs can be difficult to shift, and remain in place much longer than many models think. There will be an ongoing risk of easterlies if this devoloment takes place and although perhaps a good deal of dry weather about with frosty nights, we may have to look at the Atlantic to try and dislodge the block and inject that bit of moisture we need for snow. Obviously as the month progresses and we enter March it may be that much more more intense cold from Northern Russia is required to really bring the goods, this may seem unlikely, but tbh we said the same thing this time last year, and we all no how that delivered!! So it's all to play for really, crucial we get that block into the right place as a starting point, hopefully we should me much more clearer this time next week. But I certainly wouldn't be down playing it just yet, as last year proved, expect the unexpected!! 👌

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Meanwhile in the hunt for mild thread, the Ecm 12z shows charts to drool over..similar to the Gfs 12z next week.👍

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Edited by Frosty.
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EC at 48 - this little low is new? Just a wave on the other models. 

0E8571BC-679B-41DA-B0FF-069F0E24BD41.thumb.jpeg.1d2afe93a8f00e2f3bf280a06c7d4990.jpeg

probaly to mild for snow but if the flow can wrap around and drag in colder air on its northern flank....

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I still think we should at least manage a continental direction to the flow by late next week, for a time before the big Pacific-driven shift (via a powerful MJO-driven cross-polar ridge) to focus blocking W and NW of the UK. There's room for a bit of an undercut of the ridge from the polar vortex-driven low heights across Asia but the models tend to be poor at picking up on this until shorter notice. Nov 2010 saw one of the strongest examples of this I can recall; the models didn't really see the initial cold undercut that affected us final week of Nov (ahead of the main spell in Dec driven by mid-Atlantic to Greenland-focused blocking) until just 4 or 5 day's range.

Regardless, I expect GFS is being too 'clean' with the high pressure in its raw output for mid-late next week; not enough fog pegging temps back during the day. Some lucky spots could manage some clear, springlike weather though (from the perspective of those who enjoy an early taste of spring as and when it's taking place).

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Meanwhile in the hunt for mild thread, the Ecm 12z shows charts to drool over..similar to the Gfs 12z next week.👍

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Look at all that WAA, the building blocks are there. Not in the right place initially but cold easterlies are often preceded by this type of pattern.

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Greeny high all the way for me none of this mamsy pamsy scandy high business.

😉😉😉

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14 minutes ago, legritter said:

Just thought i would let all Cold Hunters know that Legritter is about and ready for a good HUNT  ,Something is brewing  nothing is set in stone  .If i may just add todays exeter update , they are seeing high pressure and hinting at something wintry  , i know many will say that they have been saying this all winter so far but we have the possibility of high pressure setting up in a good position .So come on Gang , C H Q S ,Cold Hunters Quick  Step  , sausage sandwiches ,STellas ,cheers 

I do hope you're right, LG...So long as you haven't lost your...image.thumb.png.7f96d344bbeee2b6b15e8511968f621f.png 😄

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Sadly the ext EPS are not really improving.  The mean suggests a very intense mid-Atlantic trough with Euro heights.  Without lower heights into Europe, there is no route to cold.

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1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Sadly the ext EPS are not really improving.  The mean suggests a very intense mid-Atlantic trough with Euro heights.  Without lower heights into Europe, there is no route to cold.

Yes, they looked bad at 240 - suspected and feared you would be bringing us bad news.

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I won't be convinced or start getting excited till these setups are 5 days away,sorry guys but like many I'm done with getting my hopes up with FI charts ,but for now we have an interesting development coming later Sunday into early Monday with a real snow risk as a low slips southeast ward 

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It’s on like donkey kong

and if it ain’t it’s sweet

its not like we have been hunting all winter

we got this

its coming

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18 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Sadly the ext EPS are not really improving.  The mean suggests a very intense mid-Atlantic trough with Euro heights.  Without lower heights into Europe, there is no route to cold.

Oh dear, not a great evening tonight.

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8 minutes ago, snowbob said:

It could be just forget the models

they are just a guess 

Just sit back relax and enjoy what’s around you 

enjoy your family and  have a great evening 

it’s just weather

you ain’t ever getting this time back 

Mother Nature will carry on

so should we

 

 

 

Agree with most of this, but let's just hope mother nature doesn't carry on giving us the same dross up until now!! 😉

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31 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Sadly the ext EPS are not really improving.  The mean suggests a very intense mid-Atlantic trough with Euro heights.  Without lower heights into Europe, there is no route to cold.

There a complete waste of time, of late anyway. They swing wildly from day to day and seem to follow the operation run into the extended outlook. They’ve been very inconsistent this winter. 

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12 minutes ago, snowbob said:

It could be just forget the models

they are just a guess 

Just sit back relax and enjoy what’s around you 

enjoy your family and  have a great evening 

it’s just weather

you ain’t ever getting this time back 

Mother Nature will carry on

so should we

 

 

 

Poxy weather!!  Or should that be poxy models, or both!! 🤪

Agree with the above.

Edited by Don
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Yes agree the ecm extended haven’t been great this winter so I’m not to worried about them yet . We would of had 5 cold spells 8ft snow drifts and frozen lakes if the eps had come off this winter . Hope Nick (BA) doesn’t see this post he won’t be happy that I’ve slag off his bestie model . 😱😉

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The models can be stonkers, they don't always get it right;

The weather can be marvellous, but more likely it's just s...e!👍

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes agree the ecm extended haven’t been great this winter so I’m not to worried about them yet . We would of had 5 cold spells 8ft snow drifts and frozen lakes if the eps had come off this winter . Hope Nick (BA) doesn’t see this post he won’t be happy that I’ve slag off his bestie model . 😱😉

Has any model been great this winter?

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Just now, Don said:

Has any model been great this winter?

Aye, the ones that predict little cold for the UK, the I.R 252 model

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes agree the ecm extended haven’t been great this winter so I’m not to worried about them yet . We would of had 5 cold spells 8ft snow drifts and frozen lakes if the eps had come off this winter . Hope Nick (BA) doesn’t see this post he won’t be happy that I’ve slag off his bestie model . 😱😉

Let’s see how the extended EPS handled today. 

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