Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Meanwhile in the hunt for mild thread, the Ecm 12z shows charts to drool over..similar to the Gfs 12z next week.?

    144_thickuk.png

    144_mslp850.png

    168_thickuk.png

    168_mslp850.png

    192_thickuk.png

    192_mslp850.png

    216_thickuk.png

    216_mslp850.png

    240_thickuk.png

    240_mslp850.png

    169993-Brace-Yourselves-Summer-Is-Coming.jpg

    2rh5x2.jpg

    Edited by Frosty.
    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 12.2k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    EC at 48 - this little low is new? Just a wave on the other models. 

    0E8571BC-679B-41DA-B0FF-069F0E24BD41.thumb.jpeg.1d2afe93a8f00e2f3bf280a06c7d4990.jpeg

    probaly to mild for snow but if the flow can wrap around and drag in colder air on its northern flank....

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    I still think we should at least manage a continental direction to the flow by late next week, for a time before the big Pacific-driven shift (via a powerful MJO-driven cross-polar ridge) to focus blocking W and NW of the UK. There's room for a bit of an undercut of the ridge from the polar vortex-driven low heights across Asia but the models tend to be poor at picking up on this until shorter notice. Nov 2010 saw one of the strongest examples of this I can recall; the models didn't really see the initial cold undercut that affected us final week of Nov (ahead of the main spell in Dec driven by mid-Atlantic to Greenland-focused blocking) until just 4 or 5 day's range.

    Regardless, I expect GFS is being too 'clean' with the high pressure in its raw output for mid-late next week; not enough fog pegging temps back during the day. Some lucky spots could manage some clear, springlike weather though (from the perspective of those who enjoy an early taste of spring as and when it's taking place).

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Meanwhile in the hunt for mild thread, the Ecm 12z shows charts to drool over..similar to the Gfs 12z next week.?

    144_thickuk.png

    144_mslp850.png

    168_thickuk.png

    168_mslp850.png

    192_thickuk.png

    192_mslp850.png

    216_thickuk.png

    216_mslp850.png

    240_thickuk.png

    240_mslp850.png

    Look at all that WAA, the building blocks are there. Not in the right place initially but cold easterlies are often preceded by this type of pattern.

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
    1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

    Greeny high all the way for me none of this mamsy pamsy scandy high business.

    ???

    archives-1987-1-12-0-0.png

    archives-1987-1-12-0-2.png

    archivesnh-1987-1-12-0-0.png

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    14 minutes ago, legritter said:

    Just thought i would let all Cold Hunters know that Legritter is about and ready for a good HUNT  ,Something is brewing  nothing is set in stone  .If i may just add todays exeter update , they are seeing high pressure and hinting at something wintry  , i know many will say that they have been saying this all winter so far but we have the possibility of high pressure setting up in a good position .So come on Gang , C H Q S ,Cold Hunters Quick  Step  , sausage sandwiches ,STellas ,cheers 

    I do hope you're right, LG...So long as you haven't lost your...image.thumb.png.7f96d344bbeee2b6b15e8511968f621f.png ?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Sadly the ext EPS are not really improving.  The mean suggests a very intense mid-Atlantic trough with Euro heights.  Without lower heights into Europe, there is no route to cold.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, mulzy said:

    Sadly the ext EPS are not really improving.  The mean suggests a very intense mid-Atlantic trough with Euro heights.  Without lower heights into Europe, there is no route to cold.

    Yes, they looked bad at 240 - suspected and feared you would be bringing us bad news.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    I won't be convinced or start getting excited till these setups are 5 days away,sorry guys but like many I'm done with getting my hopes up with FI charts ,but for now we have an interesting development coming later Sunday into early Monday with a real snow risk as a low slips southeast ward 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

    It’s on like donkey kong

    and if it ain’t it’s sweet

    its not like we have been hunting all winter

    we got this

    its coming

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    18 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    Sadly the ext EPS are not really improving.  The mean suggests a very intense mid-Atlantic trough with Euro heights.  Without lower heights into Europe, there is no route to cold.

    Oh dear, not a great evening tonight.

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    8 minutes ago, snowbob said:

    It could be just forget the models

    they are just a guess 

    Just sit back relax and enjoy what’s around you 

    enjoy your family and  have a great evening 

    it’s just weather

    you ain’t ever getting this time back 

    Mother Nature will carry on

    so should we

     

     

     

    Agree with most of this, but let's just hope mother nature doesn't carry on giving us the same dross up until now!! ?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    31 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    Sadly the ext EPS are not really improving.  The mean suggests a very intense mid-Atlantic trough with Euro heights.  Without lower heights into Europe, there is no route to cold.

    There a complete waste of time, of late anyway. They swing wildly from day to day and seem to follow the operation run into the extended outlook. They’ve been very inconsistent this winter. 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    12 minutes ago, snowbob said:

    It could be just forget the models

    they are just a guess 

    Just sit back relax and enjoy what’s around you 

    enjoy your family and  have a great evening 

    it’s just weather

    you ain’t ever getting this time back 

    Mother Nature will carry on

    so should we

     

     

     

    Poxy weather!!  Or should that be poxy models, or both!! ?

    Agree with the above.

    Edited by Don
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Yes agree the ecm extended haven’t been great this winter so I’m not to worried about them yet . We would of had 5 cold spells 8ft snow drifts and frozen lakes if the eps had come off this winter . Hope Nick (BA) doesn’t see this post he won’t be happy that I’ve slag off his bestie model . ??

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    The models can be stonkers, they don't always get it right;

    The weather can be marvellous, but more likely it's just s...e!?

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

    Yes agree the ecm extended haven’t been great this winter so I’m not to worried about them yet . We would of had 5 cold spells 8ft snow drifts and frozen lakes if the eps had come off this winter . Hope Nick (BA) doesn’t see this post he won’t be happy that I’ve slag off his bestie model . ??

    Has any model been great this winter?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    Just now, Don said:

    Has any model been great this winter?

    Aye, the ones that predict little cold for the UK, the I.R 252 model

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Yes agree the ecm extended haven’t been great this winter so I’m not to worried about them yet . We would of had 5 cold spells 8ft snow drifts and frozen lakes if the eps had come off this winter . Hope Nick (BA) doesn’t see this post he won’t be happy that I’ve slag off his bestie model . ??

    Let’s see how the extended EPS handled today. 

    8F5DFD1A-0F0B-4622-9382-3E0F3DF7EE0B.png

    874E6FAC-53D4-4CFA-B3E5-C51503A40679.png

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    4 minutes ago, Don said:

    Has any model been great this winter?

    Definitely not they’ve all been poor Don even the Met haven’t been great . Not anyone’s fault just another unpredictable winter . 

    Edited by ICE COLD
    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, shotski said:

    Let’s see how the extended EPS handled today. 

    8F5DFD1A-0F0B-4622-9382-3E0F3DF7EE0B.png

    874E6FAC-53D4-4CFA-B3E5-C51503A40679.png

    You need really to put the anomaly from today up but at that range the ensemble mean might not necessarily be all that useful anyway.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-07-23 07:27:43 Valid: 23/07/2021 0600 - 24/07/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRIDAY 23 JULY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 1

      Heatwave fading, unsettled conditions moving in across the south this weekend

      Heat loses its grip into the weekend, with low pressure bringing heavy thundery downpours to the south, northern areas drier, sunnier and warm. All areas unsettled next week, with spells of rain or showers. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Hot spell drawing to a close - heavy rain on the way this weekend

      Temperatures will rise into the thirties again today, with a scattering of thunderstorms developing this afternoon. But time is now ticking for the heatwave as wetter, cooler weather arrives in time for the weekend. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...