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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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5 minutes ago, offerman said:

Couldn't have put that better myself. When charts are that far out showing dream scenarios they always change downgrade more often than not so don't disappoint yourself by getting too excited that far out.

But the point that is being missed is that charts at day 8/9 are said to be reliable and awful. Yet on the SAME RUN, charts 48 hours later are fi.  That makes a nonsense of the post. 

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4 minutes ago, Don said:

It seems to be on a knife edge between a very mild end to February or very cold?

Pretty much the mean remains above the 30-year average from around Wednesday but a lot of scatter from later next week

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26 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

IMO that was due to the SSW downwelling interfering with the signal. SSW over now,  so.....

The SSW delivered..just the on the wrong side of the Atlantic..is shaping up to be a very cold Feb indeed over here.

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even the GFS test model has it very mild for next week grass cutting shortly at this rate only positive at least its dry  

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Edited by igloo
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it could be that we don't manage to get any of the lows coming into the atlantic able to drive enough WAA to deliver a scandi ridge with the systems continually flattening the pattern - until we get the ridge off the esb that is driven ne to greeny/griceland by waa from the system following behind. 

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Well there we have it folks, in the space of 2 hours we have brought the cold in, ended it and brought the mild back in, to the point where some posts say....... Well at least you you will be able to get ya grass cut next week!! Bizzare, you just couldn't script it any better ?

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I suspect that on subsequent suites the scandi high option will diminish even more, not necessarily for the worse though, this was signposted relatively early so if the uppers were going to be frigid, you would have seen a lot more flatliners on the 850's graph, looking for Iceland or Greenland now for the ridge.

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Loving the GFS 12z op.

Shifts from +mild 850s down to -10 (Northern England) in 24 hours!!!

FI of course,  but something is definitely on the move with regards to the mid term pattern. Can we manage a cold end to winter, I think we could.

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Edited by chris55
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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I suspect that on subsequent suites the scandi high option will diminish even more, not necessarily for the worse though, this was signposted relatively early so if the uppers were going to be frigid, you would have seen a lot more flatliners on the 850's graph, looking for Iceland or Greenland now for the ridge.

Greeny high all the way for me none of this mamsy pamsy scandy high business.

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Also with a scandi high, you sometimes have nowhere else to go when either the back end sags out on the Eastern flank into Europe and no cold uppers have been delivered or when the Jet just fires up over the top and sinks it (2012), it didn't matter what the background signals were then, the met office forecast collapsed from very good to very poor in 48 hours, don't get me wrong, Easterlies are the holy grail of UK setups, like watching those stunning high maintenance super model types, very beautiful but very fragile, probably not actually that healthy, so worth the gamble but only when the uppers are -10 or below, preferable -13c or below late feb and also low 500mb heights required, not those dry types, in this instance the further West initially any Northern blocking sets up, the better, apart from a West based -NAO, that almost always is the death knell for a potential cold spell.

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I havent looked at EC but judging by the lack of comments i can only assume its not great.

I looked and refer the honourable gentlemen to the benny hill gif..?

Edited by northwestsnow
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A chiller start to next week but that is quickly replaced by milder air on tonights 12z ECM.

Obviously this time of year it could still be quite chilly by day if any fog were to form overnight and not during the day nights are also likely to be frosty under the high

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9 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

Does your full stop button work? ?

No but his commas work perfectly?,,,,,,?

As for the Gfs 12z operational..I love those Arctic reloads in low res..must be the background signals:gathering:,,:cold-emoji: 

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On 06/02/2019 at 19:52, bluearmy said:

 

I've not looked at the models at all this week until now, interesting runs being shown, looks like heights will ridge through from the south next week, how far north they travel is the question, and interaction with the northern arm of the jet which once again after trying to move up a gear this week looks like falling down again - a theme of the last 12 months.. Lots of potential outcomes as follows:

1. Ridge settles over the UK  for a few days, either sinks south with the jet riding over the top, or decides to retrogress NW or indeed NE

2. Ridge builds NE quickly pulling in a shortlived easterly feed, then retrogression to the NW

3. Ridge builds then sinks to the SE, with a balmy SW flow developing

If this was any other time of year, I'd say scenario 3, but come mid Feb, northerlies and easterlies have a far greater chance of verifying..

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I havent looked at EC but judging by the lack of comments i can only assume its not great.

yes back looking at 10+ days charts for anything positive again this sums it up 

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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I havent looked at EC but judging by the lack of comments i can only assume its not great.

Slow burner.  Day 10 chart has "potential".  At least it should be dry after the awful weather of the last few days.

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