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Very good control run from the 18z GFS with plenty of snow opportunities for all and also just enough cold to keep things as snow for most.

GFS Para is ALOT flatter of a run but there is still some decent snow chances, but we will see where it goes later in the run with regards to any ridging and blocking.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

They are NW on them charts Matt.

On the fax charts?

Euro4 has westerly winds, at odds with every other model. Seem strange. Wonder if it will change on the next update. That would alter the shower distribution.

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10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.b8a03d950fa7222705923f8fa49f9812.png

Uninspiring 18z GEFS.

-5 mean throughout? Confused what you mean by this feb what were you expecting? It’s a bit a quiet period at the moment a mean of -5 is good for now IMO

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hardly any -8c and only 1 below -10c.

Lets see if they trend colder over the next few runs but i will take them over mild dross that half of this winter has produced,onwards and upwards we hope.

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Well the 18z GFS ensembles are more or less useless for trying to figure out a pattern past 120hrs to be honest and there are a lot of very different solutions!

Lots of snow opportunities on a large percentage of those runs, and the cortex keeps spitting out upper lows into the Atlantic and towards W.Europe. Other than that, no real signals crop up from the ensembles!

ps, a lot of those -5C type runs also have Lps quite close by as well. Deep cold is not on the table for at least the next 12 days at least, but you DON'T need deep cold in the right set-up.

Edited by kold weather
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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

-5 mean throughout? Confused what you mean by this feb what were you expecting? It’s a bit a quiet period at the moment a mean of -5 is good for now IMO

Like to see a big downward trend at the end as a sinking trough and the ridge extending iceland draws in a frigid NE flow rather than just a lee Easterly.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.ab921c2c522ffb3016d873eb2d7fbdef.pngimage.thumb.png.e18883a60009b25413acf289f3fdb70a.png

Tasty looking charts. The spine of the accumulation down the Pennines in Northern England most likely is for areas over around 200m but possibly lower. 

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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well the 18z GFS ensembles are more or less useless for trying to figure out a pattern past 120hrs to be honest and there are a lot of very different solutions!

Lots of snow opportunities on a large percentage of those runs, and the cortex keeps spitting out upper lows into the Atlantic and towards W.Europe. Other than that, no real signals crop up from the ensembles!

ps, a lot of those -5C type runs also have Lps quite close by as well. Deep cold is not on the table for at least the next 12 days at least, but you DON'T need deep cold in the right set-up.

It is concerning that there is still is no real signal for anything v cold or sustained cold. The current colder air just isn't that good for the majority of the country or lowland areas. Transient wintery showers isn't really what we are looking for.  It seems that the longer range models, so far, have failed big time this winter. Still very much time to change, but I suspect if we go through this week and there is still no great outlook, then a few people will be scratching their heads. 

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Not sure if anyone's posted these, but EURO4 looked quite impressive for coverage of snow showers through Tuesday and the Met Office fax charts show this well.

The following are for midday tuesday and tuesday night/wed, both show various troughs moving across the country showing increased precipitation and few small accumulations likely from these in places. Favoured areas look to be western areas.

231249300_Tue12fax.thumb.gif.0e1c9811ccc5d8628ab5632ef363e710.gif837258635_Wed00.thumb.gif.8c90a73d658137586929a3cca5eb2368.gif

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1 minute ago, shetland islands said:

It is concerning that there is still is no real signal for anything v cold or sustained cold. The current colder air just isn't that good for the majority of the country or lowland areas. Transient wintery showers isn't really what we are looking for.  It seems that the longer range models, so far, have failed big time this winter. Still very much time to change, but I suspect if we go through this week and there is still no great outlook, then a few people will be scratching their heads. 

I'd say that broadly its still a set of fairly cold runs, though as noted tgere really isn't many runs yet which are showing any deep cold, but that is the trade of for allowing a set-up that allows more snow attempts and as I said there are quite a lot of runs that have decent snow opportunities, especially for Midlands northwards,

 

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4 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Huge for the southeast I'm. So excited 

Glad to see someone else is still cold hunting at this late hour! 

 

ECM looks promising especially as we head out of next weekend.. Looks best for Northern or western areas, but we remain faithful down here in the SE. With all that cold I think it's just a matter of time before we get a big snow event.

 

Don't dismiss this Thursday either, with a little low clipping the north sea coasts!

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41 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Glad to see someone else is still cold hunting at this late hour! 

 

ECM looks promising especially as we head out of next weekend.. Looks best for Northern or western areas, but we remain faithful down here in the SE. With all that cold I think it's just a matter of time before we get a big snow event.

 

Don't dismiss this Thursday either, with a little low clipping the north sea coasts!

4 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

It’s not a wind up. It’s very much real. 

giga bite mega bite and terabite u sure , where is this from then, can't even think why they would show a chart in that form

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As its model banter and its the early hours of the morning , im putting tge weekend downgrades as weekend model runs.... is it just me or every weekend come 18z friday night the Modles completely flip to what they have been showing all week, and then by Monday were back to a half way house solution

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8 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

giga bite mega bite and terabite u sure , where is this from then, can't even think why they would show a chart in that form

 

4 hours ago, doctormog said:

The balloon data appears to be at 77MB rather than the 18z norm of 99MB. I doubt those 20MB would make any significant impact on the 2TB set.

I’m guessing the 91% is based on the deviation from the daily average not the 18z one

https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/gfs_gdas_observation_amount_quality.asp

Link in doctormogs post takes you straight to it

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15 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

As its model banter and its the early hours of the morning , im putting tge weekend downgrades as weekend model runs.... is it just me or every weekend come 18z friday night the Modles completely flip to what they have been showing all week, and then by Monday were back to a half way house solution

Stay positive☺!

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