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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Just stunning this run . 

3A673169-D97E-4061-ADCE-EA8B836F98F9.png

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instead of looking at charts at 11 days away charts in the more reliable time frame will be a lot more accurate and these charts below a quite shocking sadly 

image.thumb.png.050e04b178f8629e85201b914e003509.pngimage.thumb.png.80b4219b30bcde449f264b5a36ce2aa8.png

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Come on MJO old buddy, don't let me down.

Edited by mountain shadow

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2 minutes ago, igloo said:

instead of looking at charts at 11 days away charts in the more reliable time frame will be a lot more accurate and these charts below a quite shocking sadly 

image.thumb.png.050e04b178f8629e85201b914e003509.pngimage.thumb.png.80b4219b30bcde449f264b5a36ce2aa8.png

Day 8/9 is reliable but 11 isn’t?🤣🤣🤣🤣

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6 minutes ago, BlazeStorm said:

Instead, you might have misunderstood the 'Cold Hunt' thread.

In all fairness, we may have to go through a fairly mild spell to get to the colder stuff, its a valid comment to an extent.

Indeed, the control run probably looks close to record breaking mild by the 2nd half of the week, the daily records aren't that high, so they would probably fall in such a set-up. Also, a few ensembles look distinctly Bartlett...for the more experienced members, that's a dreaded word. An amplified pattern but very much of the wrong type with the jet slugging over the top meekly of a fat Euro High drawing in a long fetch from the S/SW.

However some good cold spells in the past have evolved through just such a set-up, and its clearly on the table providing we don't have another 18-19 winter curveball!!

Edited by kold weather

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3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Come on MJO old buddy, don't let me down.

Well it has let us down most of the Winter so maybe it feels sorry for us and will unleash the beast from the North..

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6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

In all fairness, we may have to go through a fairly mild spell to get to the colder stuff, its a valid comment to an extent.

Indeed, the control run probably looks close to record breaking mild by the 2nd half of the week, the daily records aren't that high, so they would probably fall in such a set-up.

Short term pain WAA 

graphe3_0000_263_36___.gif

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17 minutes ago, igloo said:

instead of looking at charts at 11 days away charts in the more reliable time frame will be a lot more accurate and these charts below a quite shocking sadly 

image.thumb.png.050e04b178f8629e85201b914e003509.pngimage.thumb.png.80b4219b30bcde449f264b5a36ce2aa8.png

How's about we even look at something even further out but this time much more exciting!! 

cfs-2-480.png

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Still a lot that could go wrong though. Gfs12 is fantastic, but there is an equal chance for a flatter evolution. 

AO index could go either way

gem-0-198.png

ao.sprd2.gif

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30 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

If ya like the synoptics on offer atm/@this range...

Then id like 2 see the responces come wednesday/thurs-nxt week when synoptics of perhaps even better..are begining 2 fall on our laps!!..

On we gain!!!!

dont ever change xx

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21 minutes ago, BlazeStorm said:

Instead, you might have misunderstood the 'Cold Hunt' thread.

The cold has been at day 10 since Christmas so no change there then 😂

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3 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

dont ever change xx

OK I'm slightly concerned about the kisses there!! 🤔😂

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32 minutes ago, kold weather said:

The fact that there would probably be a lack of disturbances would stop the snow...something probably would form on the eastern side of the country in the north sea, but its quite a stable looking set-up overall, if it happened like that, cold but distinctly lacking in instability. Showers in the usual exposed places, maybe dying a little further inland as that would be the back end of Feb by that point.

Still would take that 12z in a second, good run!

It's amazing how often people look at cold charts in the distance and comment on how dry they look. Come the time, disturbances always seem to crop up and deliver snow falls (usually only spotted at 3/4 days out).

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22 minutes ago, booferking said:

Well it has let us down most of the Winter so maybe it feels sorry for us and will unleash the beast from the North..

IMO that was due to the SSW downwelling interfering with the signal. SSW over now,  so.....

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Its going to be known as BBQ feb at this rate.

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The OP is on the cold side, most runs are mild in the mid-time range at the moment. It's not entirely without support though, P1 is an absolute stonker.

image.thumb.png.331dd952da36981611884e0ce94b77c0.png

I presume these are the kinda runs that go a bit crazy with the phase 8 MJO...

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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34 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Day 8/9 is reliable but 11 isn’t?🤣🤣🤣🤣

For a definition of where FI or the unreliable forecast options begin, one should have a glance at the netweather guides to reading the enembles. For my opinion on this, read below.

 

The reliable is never a static position either, with FI, i.e. the non-reliable for surface observations is said to be starting at around D5 right now, according to some respectable members in here. The reasoning behind this is that suggestions of Shannon Entropy are at play. The best guide is to look at the GEFS or ECM ensembles and see where the most significant divergence of options begins, as it is at that timeframe that the unreliable and FI starts.

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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7 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

The cold has been at day 10 since Christmas so no change there then 😂

And you’ve said that everyday since #changetherecord

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16 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

The cold has been at day 10 since Christmas so no change there then 😂

actually since the end of November..but who's counting

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Just a quick one from me, seems to be a theme developing today from GFS/GEFS and EC/EPS (so far) to by pass a Scandi high developing and instead ridge builds north over Western Europe next week, before perhaps building NW to Iceland/Greenland the following week. The reason, tropospheric polar vortex other side of Svalbard extending SW into Scandi, then perhaps eventually further SW over Europe from mid month with a ridge west or NW of UK by then.

Going to be a slow process to get there and may have to endure a little mildness on the way, but I think the easterly may be off the table for now and besides it probably wouldn’t have brought us deep cold anyway given forecast temps out east next week.

Edited by Nick F

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21 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Still a lot that could go wrong though. Gfs12 is fantastic, but there is an equal chance for a flatter evolution. 

AO index could go either way

gem-0-198.png

ao.sprd2.gif

That AO chart is not as good as yesterdays, unfortunately.

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35 minutes ago, igloo said:

instead of looking at charts at 11 days away charts in the more reliable time frame will be a lot more accurate and these charts below a quite shocking sadly 

image.thumb.png.050e04b178f8629e85201b914e003509.pngimage.thumb.png.80b4219b30bcde449f264b5a36ce2aa8.png

Well that would be rather boring wouldn’t it ? It’s the hunt for cold and the wheels are in motion long before day 11 . Plus if a run shows cold at day 5,10 or 15 it will get posted as it’s the hunt for cold . It would be rather quite in here if no one did . But yes next week looks quite mild but no one wants to talk about that . 

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40 minutes ago, igloo said:

instead of looking at charts at 11 days away charts in the more reliable time frame will be a lot more accurate and these charts below a quite shocking sadly 

image.thumb.png.050e04b178f8629e85201b914e003509.pngimage.thumb.png.80b4219b30bcde449f264b5a36ce2aa8.png

Couldn't have put that better myself. When charts are that far out showing dream scenarios they always change downgrade more often than not so don't disappoint yourself by getting too excited that far out.

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15 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The OP is on the cold side, most runs are mild in the mid-time range at the moment. It's not entirely without support though, P1 is an absolute stonker.

image.thumb.png.331dd952da36981611884e0ce94b77c0.png

Thinking p1 is what is on the cards 12 z has the heights pushing NNW. Height rises looking great so with the mjo supposedly going into or is already in phase 8 I would suggest @TI and ice cold could be bang on 😎

Screenshot_2019-02-08-17-48-52.thumb.png.ae6e569484f8f827b8b35f2e46e0e140.png

Edited by icykev
forgot to mention no Canadian yoghurt😉

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It seems to be on a knife edge between a very mild end to February or very cold?

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