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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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2 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes the clearance of the Canadian lobe and movement of the main vortex to the Siberian side is what we want to see and is the first part of any future Heights to our nw.

Just to add the building sub-tropical ridge is also a key part of it and it can bring a temporary mild interlude before the high goes north and we start to see the change to cold.

That’s the plan Phil. There always seems to be a milder spell for the uk before a cold spell starts , as in the high pumping up from the south through the uk and heading either NE or NW . ?

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Gfs got close to +8 850temps next week!!should feel really spring like in the sun!!!might just start an early barbecue this year and then wait till next winter for the cold and snow to put it out!!sorry let me raphrase that i shall wait till next winter for the WIND and RAIN to put it out?

Edited by shaky
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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs got close to +8 850temps next week!!should feel really spring like in the sun!!!might just start an early barbecue this year and then wait till next winter for the cold and snow to put it out!!sorry let me raphrase that i shall wait till next winter for the WIND and RAIN to put it out?

Barbecue Spring, here we come! We'll have to put the snow on ice, for the time being, Shaky!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Gfs got close to +8 850temps next week!!should feel really spring like in the sun!!!might just start an early barbecue this year and then wait till next winter for the cold and snow to put it out!!?

Not overly high the temps tho shaky . 10,11 and 12 but make the most of it because winter is coming ?

3A220452-8B29-4F54-856D-6554A3AC9038.png

5FE6FDC9-8102-4D50-BD77-E146C97C015E.png

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So the GFS 06z had a different synoptic, the wave around D7 pushing the trough east rather than the 12z that cuts through the Atlantic trough and forms a cut-off low, and flattens the pattern more (High further south on 12z -v- 6z). This is a mirror of the 0z ECM run:

241816290_gfseu-0-186(1).thumb.png.1103ec5850f231f24f5c0aae67a4b785.png545298678_ECE1-192(1).thumb.gif.bed8eab55f5fc15a0fd4b9f376b265d3.gif

Hoping they have some sort of agreement going forward as they have been chopping and changing this synoptic trigger. Hence the lack of clarity in the ensembles as to post D8...

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A strengthening signal for blocking in the Atlantic/Greenland sector after mid month.

Still too far away to know what will come of it but looks like a late Winter outbreak is on the cards at the moment.

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21 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs got close to +8 850temps next week!!should feel really spring like in the sun!!!might just start an early barbecue this year and then wait till next winter for the cold and snow to put it out!!sorry let me raphrase that i shall wait till next winter for the WIND and RAIN to put it out?

Patience shaky, just like 2013 things got notably colder end of Feb, and then just to think from March 6th and early April, temps were literally several degrees below average , not to mention widespread snow around the middle of the month, ya better put that Barby on hold, as the upcoming cold and snow may Bury it!

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Hmm - funnily enough I find the mid-range GFS output more dubious than the longer-range; the P7 MJO forcing ought to prevent our local high from being trapped over the S Half of Europe prior to the P8 MJO signal feeding through. Not that the longer-range isn't without big questions either; GFS is often too fast to bring through a P8 response. What it shows is not unreasonable as a direction of travel, but probably too hasty to transition to the P8 response from a P7 one; I'd expect the main blocking to initially be NE/N of the UK.

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Good run from the 12z GFS, though rather tame weather wise with HP very much in charge upto 324hrs. Very cold nights probable in such a set-up with -10c 850hpa temps widespread, and probably very sunny days. Out of exposed winds, at this time of year that may feel quite nice despite the cold temperatures.

Anyways that's probably a solid middling run, hopefully we see some more bombastic ensemble members from the 12z suite.

Singularity, yeah I agree, GFS is in particular usually a solid 48-72hrs too quick in those set-ups.

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If ya like the synoptics on offer atm/@this range...

Then id like 2 see the responces come wednesday/thurs-nxt week when synoptics of perhaps even better..are begining 2 fall on our laps!!..

On we gain!!!!

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3 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Perfect thickness, uppers etc for islands wide snowfall. Nobody would miss out in this conditions.

 

what can possibly go wrong?!? ?

The fact that there would probably be a lack of disturbances would stop the snow...something probably would form on the eastern side of the country in the north sea, but its quite a stable looking set-up overall, if it happened like that, cold but distinctly lacking in instability. Showers in the usual exposed places, maybe dying a little further inland as that would be the back end of Feb by that point.

Still would take that 12z in a second, good run!

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