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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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1 hour ago, Jason74 said:

It'll be late December. Nope, early January. Or maybe late January. Or February. Sometime. Nah....actually make that March. What a yawn fest. 

Hey Jason, at least we are persistent, as long as we carry on with this theme, sooner or later we are bound to nail it, even if it runs into next millennium 😏

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13 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

4 days out max  remember, or Shannon will destroy your dreams😎

Del Shannon? We don't want to runaway with ourselves just yet?

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Del Shannon? We don't want to runaway with ourselves just yet?

"Hats off"  to you there ED.Il get my coat yet again!!!!:search:

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Some model discussion wouldn't go a miss in here..☺️

 

 

 

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Afternoon.. before the 12z's appear I thought I'd whip out the swingometers and see what they show...

Bit of a yawn-fest it must be said. The 15th of February is looking increasingly likely it will be mild, perhaps notably so. With high pressure nearby though it may actually feel quite nice. The best I can offer for coldies at this point is P7 which positions a high much better and we get a short, sharp little easterly afterwards.

image.thumb.png.1b18623486d1bc392b4d9bcf37035c3c.pngimage.thumb.png.1131ef1dfedfa8d30a5db22e1f652d68.png 

Later on for February 20th its a mixed bag but a lack of northern blocking. It is better then the poor 18z and 00z GEFS however. and a few cold runs in there. P4 takes the star prize for eventually getting in a cold easterly before seeing the high move to its new home in Greenland.

image.thumb.png.7eb0084b2cab41d9c24a3900e5f44a0a.pngimage.thumb.png.ceb9d1d0e0a018f410d8fa26431580ba.png 

We can still get a bit of cold from an easterly but some ens show a mild flow developing, mainly because the active jet at the moment will advect a large area of mild air to our east. The global temperature anomalies are rising again after the early month slump and with such mild air over Scandinavia next week I would much rather see a northerly develop. It can change quickly however and there will be some disgruntled people in the western US and Canada wondering when winter will relax its grip.

image.thumb.png.d497049d36b8b28ae7239303a485ed63.png

We'll take some of the cold air if you don't want it anymore.

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1 hour ago, stodge said:

Have to say I thought the Control would be a warm outlier but the OP on the cold side. Interesting to see some colder options than the OP out there.

All to play for with the Mean splitting the difference and ending up near average.😎

  we been playing for it since November yet we are nowhere near catching the snitch yet  even with the best background signals playing as seekers  reference from Harry Potter 😎

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I see the fantasists are out in force once again(well they have been since December), same old posters also. Back to reality and apart from the brief fairly non wintry Northerly coming up, the trend does seem to be one of turning milder again but perhaps more obviously, it be drier, especially the further South and East you are. The set up does seem to remind me to a certain extent of Feb 2008 where we got very mild pleasent days but cold frosty nights, I don't think the high is quite in the right position for that as I suspect there be too much cloud cover but one thing for sure, no horrible cold rainy days and definately no snow on the horizon! 

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13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Del Shannon? We don't want to runaway with ourselves just yet?

You are a Little Town Flirt and at your age, you really should know better!

Anyway lowering the tone further, ECM seems to be upping their game:

Shannon may indeed be the watchword!

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3 minutes ago, IDO said:

You are a Little Town Flirt and at your age, you really should know better!

Anyway lowering the tone further, ECM seems to be upping their game:

Shannon may indeed be the watchword!

What are the changes compared to last nights eps if you could explain?also is it a good change or bad?

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2 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

  we been playing for it since November yet we are nowhere near catching the snitch yet  even with the best background signals playing as seekers  reference from Harry Potter 😎

True...But, considering the number of let-downs we've seen this winter, the dementers have been more than busy - despite the expectations of Those That Cannot Be Named!😱

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3 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I see the fantasists are out in force once again(well they have been since December), same old posters also. Back to reality and apart from the brief fairly non wintry Northerly coming up, the trend does seem to be one of turning milder again but perhaps more obviously, it be drier, especially the further South and East you are. The set up does seem to remind me to a certain extent of Feb 2008 where we got very mild pleasent days but cold frosty nights, I don't think the high is quite in the right position for that as I suspect there be too much cloud cover but one thing for sure, no horrible cold rainy days and definately no snow on the horizon! 

Well that really has brought a new  complexion to the hunt for cold thread! Good job it's Friday and not Monday cause this post really would have many reaching for the valium 😒

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6 minutes ago, shaky said:

What are the changes compared to last nights eps if you could explain?also is it a good change or bad?

If you go back over @bluearmy posts, he advised there was a binary set of outcomes, and of course, ECM flipped to one side, which was inevitable, and as we would expect to the less snowy and cold UK one (in the D10 envelope)!

Edited by IDO

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It looks like next week things will start to dry out as models show the Azores High Pressure system stamping its foot over and to the East of the U.K scaring away the fiendish Atlantic Lows. (The exact positioning of the High is a bit uncertain and some North-Western areas could still get rampaged by some soggier weather at times). But it looks like a more settled and brighter spell, especially for South-Eastern UK, will develop. Which am admittedly looking forward to.

As what’s been the case this Winter, the models are starting to throw out some garden path charts for those who love the cold and snow. It is possible that the likely mid-latitude block next week could get lifted further North with High-Latitude-Blocking occurring with some colder and perhaps snowier weather breaking out. May just be a false alarm again. Wouldn’t get too sucked into some of the dreamy stuff the models are unleashing apon us (particularly if support for this evolution doesn’t grow). Since, however, it is the time of year where the Atlantic is likely to become somewhat more sleepy, there could be a better chance of something like this coming off. 

While March can deliver some very cold and snowy conditions still, feel this may be the last shot this Winter of seeing some possible freezing and snowy conditions along with blocking to our North. 

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11 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

It looks like next week things will start to dry out as models show the Azores High Pressure system stamping its foot over and to the East of the U.K scaring away the fiendish Atlantic Lows. (The exact positioning of the High is a bit uncertain and some North-Western areas could still get rampaged by some soggier weather at times). But it looks like a more settled and brighter spell, especially for South-Eastern UK, will develop. Which am admittedly looking forward to.

As what’s been the case this Winter, the models are starting to throw out some garden path charts for those who love the cold and snow. It is possible that the likely mid-latitude block next week could get lifted further North with High-Latitude-Blocking occurring with some colder and perhaps snowier weather breaking out. May just be a false alarm again. Wouldn’t get too sucked into some of the dreamy stuff the models are unleashing apon us (particularly if support for this evolution doesn’t grow). Since, however, it is the time of year where the Atlantic is likely to become somewhat more sleepy, there could be a better chance of something like this coming off. 

While March can deliver some very cold and snowy conditions still, feel this may be the last shot this Winter of seeing some possible freezing and snowy conditions along with blocking to our North. 

Good Post drl, and I agree with most of what your saying, what I can't fathom is some on here who are claiming those looking for  cold to devolop, as the thread suggests are indeed phantasists, even the met mention the possibility of blocking and colder with snow risks devoloping later this month, so they to must be seeing something that is not there. 🤔

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3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Good Post drl, and I agree with most of what your saying, what I can't fathom is some on here who are claiming those looking for  cold to devolop, as the thread suggests are indeed phantasists, even the met mention the possibility of blocking and colder with snow risks devoloping later this month, so they to must be seeing something that is not there. 🤔

Met office have being seeing things since mid December! 

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2 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

Met office have being seeing things since mid December! 

Literally everyone in the forecasting profession have been seeing the same signals, that doesn't mean the chances of this not devoloping is a done deal, if there is no hope at all of incoming cold then we may as well just scrap the hunt for cold and give in analizing the models as none of it will be coming off. Its easy for some to sit on the fence in here and mock those searching for cold with the theory of..... Hey this is Britain if it can go wrong it will. The normal weather is Atlantic driven westerlies so the chances of cold are minimal, but that makes the chase all that bit more exciting, cause when it does come off..... Hell it was worth the wait. 

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Many posts are more suited to the Winter thread, Nothing wrong with the odd joke based around the models, But let's please leave out the moaning, Discussing other posters and meto to keep this thread what it's intended for. Otherwise posts will start to magically dissapear

Thanks and please continue.

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50 minutes ago, shaky said:

What are the changes compared to last nights eps if you could explain?also is it a good change or bad?

It's the difference in geopotential height between this morning's 0z and last night's 12z ECM EPS mean. For example, looking at Greenland at T120, the heights are way higher on this morning's mean than they were at T132 on last night's 12z. You can sort of see this by looking at the Meteociel ECM mean charts for T120 this morning and T144 (ideally we'd have the T132, but...) last night:

EDH1-120.GIF?08-12

EDH1-144.GIF?12

 

 

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Liking the 12z Icon and it's trends with heights n/w

anim_gwz8.gif

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8 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Liking the 12z Icon and it's trends with heights n/w

anim_gwz8.gif

Looks like early barbecue weather to me from 96 hourrs all the way to the end lol!!i can imagine in the day time it shall feel really nice but nights may be a bit nippy!!

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By the way ukmo 96 and 120 hour charts are absolutely horrendous this evening!!energy over the top and high parked to the south east of the uk!

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

By the way ukmo 96 and 120 hour charts are absolutely horrendous this evening!!energy over the top and high parked to the south east of the uk!

Well, we know that the next chance to cold won't be until week 3 courtesy of the potential Greenie heights so I'm not worried about the day 1-8 range for now.

Just looking for signs of a decent Atlantic ridge in the 8-12 range.

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

By the way ukmo 96 and 120 hour charts are absolutely horrendous this evening!!energy over the top and high parked to the south east of the uk!

Don't despair shaky.Give the sub-tropical ridging a chance to develop.If we are to see a cold block further north it won't happen in the next week or so.🙂

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