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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, Summer Sun said:

    The GFS ens is pretty similar to ECM the cooler spell peaks around Tuesday we then seen a few milder days peaking around Friday before a fall back down closer to the average

    gefsens850London0.thumb.png.811c7b1619991be5dbfd896c7920b113.png

    The trend at the back end looks good, wasn't expecting that as the mean ridge doesn't gain as much latitude as on the 0z.

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

    Which year?

    2019.

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    GAME ON AGAIN - EARLY MARCH!!!

    And then its GAME OFF on the 12zs or by tomorrow.morning latest and all the ensembles shall rise again like its done countless amount of times this winter!!but i admire your optimism!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    3 minutes ago, shaky said:

    And then its GAME OFF on the 12zs or by tomorrow.morning latest and all the ensembles shall rise again like its done countless amount of times this winter!!but i admire your optimism!!

    The game will be back on and postponed that many times before the months out, it will end up being played behind closed bloody doors! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Two stragglers appearing in gfs ensembles. Trendsetters ;) 

    80DE6D65-94A3-45A5-BE67-8F63B52B2C21.thumb.png.4dff313c36b31f335220528737a2ade3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
    35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    The trend at the back end looks good, wasn't expecting that as the mean ridge doesn't gain as much latitude as on the 0z.

    Have to say I thought the Control would be a warm outlier but the OP on the cold side. Interesting to see some colder options than the OP out there.

    All to play for with the Mean splitting the difference and ending up near average.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    ensemble-tt6-london.gif

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    10 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    Two stragglers appearing in gfs ensembles. Trendsetters ;) 

    80DE6D65-94A3-45A5-BE67-8F63B52B2C21.thumb.png.4dff313c36b31f335220528737a2ade3.png

    More than 2 - there is a few at the end as well, which are more realistic timeframe wise IMO.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    58 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    GAME ON AGAIN - EARLY MARCH!!!

    Oh I do love you feb ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherton, Black Country
  • Location: Netherton, Black Country
    43 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    In a parallel universe?

    It'll be late December. Nope, early January. Or maybe late January. Or February. Sometime. Nah....actually make that March. What a yawn fest. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Yep, the writing is on the wall, just watch a cold blocking pattern set up now as we go into March, the Atlantic is losing its oomph not as it ever had much this winter, today my friends it most definitely A GAME On!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    11 minutes ago, TEITS said:

    My advice is what I said at the beginning of winter and that is just stick with the model output upto +144.

    However I can guarantee many will continue to seek beyond this timeframe because its addictive and half the fun is the thrill of the chase. However some of the constant moaners on here should stick with my advice!

    Sound advice.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    GFSP is none too shabby in FI as well

    image.thumb.png.d3e0d045ad56ac77fd6b584d0fe010d2.pngimage.thumb.png.1e7c9bf582ffeed23ce2975fbccc228a.pngimage.thumb.png.38d0aebaa9b83385a32e49df8eafbbe9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Just this minute got off the phone, from my mate Theresa, and everything is jogging along, just fine...'Never fear, it's all in my safe hands: snow means snow,' she told me?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Location: Wolverhampton

    Worth watching yes, but not worth getting too animated by this until it's practically knocking on our door - if it gets that close. Also if it does appear i just hope it's not on March 11th, as i have a rather important 5 day hospital admission!

    Edited by DIS1970
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    1 hour ago, Jason74 said:

    It'll be late December. Nope, early January. Or maybe late January. Or February. Sometime. Nah....actually make that March. What a yawn fest. 

    Why come in here to comment then if it's that boring? Surely there are far more exciting internet threads to frequent.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    1 hour ago, Jason74 said:

    It'll be late December. Nope, early January. Or maybe late January. Or February. Sometime. Nah....actually make that March. What a yawn fest. 

    Hey Jason, at least we are persistent, as long as we carry on with this theme, sooner or later we are bound to nail it, even if it runs into next millennium ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    13 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

    4 days out max  remember, or Shannon will destroy your dreams?

    Del Shannon? We don't want to runaway with ourselves just yet?

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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