Cold hunt - models and chat

[feb1991blizzard 21,926]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

The GFS ens is pretty similar to ECM the cooler spell peaks around Tuesday we then seen a few milder days peaking around Friday before a fall back down closer to the average

The trend at the back end looks good, wasn't expecting that as the mean ridge doesn't gain as much latitude as on the 0z.

[MattStoke 5,294]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GAME ON AGAIN - EARLY MARCH!!!

Which year?

[feb1991blizzard 21,926]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Which year?

2019.

[MattStoke 5,294]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

2019.

In a parallel universe?

[shaky 6,206]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GAME ON AGAIN - EARLY MARCH!!!

And then its GAME OFF on the 12zs or by tomorrow.morning latest and all the ensembles shall rise again like its done countless amount of times this winter!!but i admire your optimism!!

[MATTWOLVES 21,163]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

And then its GAME OFF on the 12zs or by tomorrow.morning latest and all the ensembles shall rise again like its done countless amount of times this winter!!but i admire your optimism!!

The game will be back on and postponed that many times before the months out, it will end up being played behind closed bloody doors! ?

[chris55 5,550]

Two stragglers appearing in gfs ensembles. Trendsetters  

[stodge 3,562]

35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The trend at the back end looks good, wasn't expecting that as the mean ridge doesn't gain as much latitude as on the 0z.

Have to say I thought the Control would be a warm outlier but the OP on the cold side. Interesting to see some colder options than the OP out there.

All to play for with the Mean splitting the difference and ending up near average.

[tight isobar 13,357]

Edited February 8, 2019 by tight isobar
Delete

[feb1991blizzard 21,926]

10 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Two stragglers appearing in gfs ensembles. Trendsetters  

More than 2 - there is a few at the end as well, which are more realistic timeframe wise IMO.

[snowfish1 456]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Whatfoes that show 

[ICE COLD 8,848]

58 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GAME ON AGAIN - EARLY MARCH!!!

Oh I do love you feb ?

[SMU 80,650]

Both the trendsetters have the trigger low nicely positioned early on (120-144 ) like the UKMO -

[Jason74 266]

43 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

In a parallel universe?

It'll be late December. Nope, early January. Or maybe late January. Or February. Sometime. Nah....actually make that March. What a yawn fest. 

[MATTWOLVES 21,163]

Yep, the writing is on the wall, just watch a cold blocking pattern set up now as we go into March, the Atlantic is losing its oomph not as it ever had much this winter, today my friends it most definitely A GAME On!! 

[TEITS 14,639]

4 minutes ago, Jason74 said:

It'll be late December. Nope, early January. Or maybe late January. Or February. Sometime. Nah....actually make that March. What a yawn fest. 

My advice is what I said at the beginning of winter and that is just stick with the model output upto +144.

However I can guarantee many will continue to seek beyond this timeframe because its addictive and half the fun is the thrill of the chase. However some of the constant moaners on here should stick with my advice!

[booferking 6,804]

11 minutes ago, TEITS said:

My advice is what I said at the beginning of winter and that is just stick with the model output upto +144.

However I can guarantee many will continue to seek beyond this timeframe because its addictive and half the fun is the thrill of the chase. However some of the constant moaners on here should stick with my advice!

Sound advice.

[Purga 4,744]

GFSP is none too shabby in FI as well

[General Cluster 60,063]

Just this minute got off the phone, from my mate Theresa, and everything is jogging along, just fine...'Never fear, it's all in my safe hands: snow means snow,' she told me?!

[weathermadbarnsleylad 582]

Something special for cold is brewing I tells thi (in a broad Barnsley accent).?

[DIS1970 253]

Worth watching yes, but not worth getting too animated by this until it's practically knocking on our door - if it gets that close. Also if it does appear i just hope it's not on March 11th, as i have a rather important 5 day hospital admission!

Edited February 8, 2019 by DIS1970

[Stonethecrows 515]

1 hour ago, Jason74 said:

It'll be late December. Nope, early January. Or maybe late January. Or February. Sometime. Nah....actually make that March. What a yawn fest. 

Why come in here to comment then if it's that boring? Surely there are far more exciting internet threads to frequent.

[Mokidugway 11,721]

4 days out max  remember, or Shannon will destroy your dreams?

[MATTWOLVES 21,163]

1 hour ago, Jason74 said:

It'll be late December. Nope, early January. Or maybe late January. Or February. Sometime. Nah....actually make that March. What a yawn fest. 

Hey Jason, at least we are persistent, as long as we carry on with this theme, sooner or later we are bound to nail it, even if it runs into next millennium ?

[General Cluster 60,063]

13 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

4 days out max  remember, or Shannon will destroy your dreams?

Del Shannon? We don't want to runaway with ourselves just yet?