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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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Just now, Summer Sun said:

The GFS ens is pretty similar to ECM the cooler spell peaks around Tuesday we then seen a few milder days peaking around Friday before a fall back down closer to the average

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.811c7b1619991be5dbfd896c7920b113.png

The trend at the back end looks good, wasn't expecting that as the mean ridge doesn't gain as much latitude as on the 0z.

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16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GAME ON AGAIN - EARLY MARCH!!!

And then its GAME OFF on the 12zs or by tomorrow.morning latest and all the ensembles shall rise again like its done countless amount of times this winter!!but i admire your optimism!!

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

And then its GAME OFF on the 12zs or by tomorrow.morning latest and all the ensembles shall rise again like its done countless amount of times this winter!!but i admire your optimism!!

The game will be back on and postponed that many times before the months out, it will end up being played behind closed bloody doors! ?

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35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The trend at the back end looks good, wasn't expecting that as the mean ridge doesn't gain as much latitude as on the 0z.

Have to say I thought the Control would be a warm outlier but the OP on the cold side. Interesting to see some colder options than the OP out there.

All to play for with the Mean splitting the difference and ending up near average.

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43 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

In a parallel universe?

It'll be late December. Nope, early January. Or maybe late January. Or February. Sometime. Nah....actually make that March. What a yawn fest. 

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Yep, the writing is on the wall, just watch a cold blocking pattern set up now as we go into March, the Atlantic is losing its oomph not as it ever had much this winter, today my friends it most definitely A GAME On!! 

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11 minutes ago, TEITS said:

My advice is what I said at the beginning of winter and that is just stick with the model output upto +144.

However I can guarantee many will continue to seek beyond this timeframe because its addictive and half the fun is the thrill of the chase. However some of the constant moaners on here should stick with my advice!

Sound advice.

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Worth watching yes, but not worth getting too animated by this until it's practically knocking on our door - if it gets that close. Also if it does appear i just hope it's not on March 11th, as i have a rather important 5 day hospital admission!

Edited by DIS1970
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