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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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A corker - risky but i don't think there is going to be an easy route now, there is no point having one of those dry SE'lys, they might only be just below average now, they would be decent in early Jan regarding low temps, the GEFS 0z were very good, a lot more runs going cold after the more mobile 18z suite.

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2 or 3 pages since last night on here doesn't paint to good a picture, even Mr optimistic me has a few doubts creeping in now. Not liking the overall trend of the next 7 days with high pressure in control and temps around average, perhaps above. On a brighter note my Jon hammond update as been put on hold today as they access a bit more info for the rest of the month, could be that there seeing something devoloping, on the other hand he could be gerrin  completely fed up of what the back ground signals were showing. Surely we need things to to start emerging in the model output by say next weekend, otherwise even I am gonna start losing the faith ?

Edited by Mattwolves
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We have not seen many sub-tropical plumes lately but this is a pattern changer:

anim_chz5.gif  gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.a5c11acdd29dcdec25d0d27db6420d41.png

Warm air pushed into the N-NW allowing for a block, even with an NH profile that offers little encouragement^^^

Just have to see this repeated 32 times to T0 and we are there!

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7 minutes ago, IDO said:

We have not seen many sub-tropical plumes lately but this is a pattern changer:

anim_chz5.gif  gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.a5c11acdd29dcdec25d0d27db6420d41.png

Warm air pushed into the N-NW allowing for a block, even with an NH profile that offers little encouragement^^^

Just have to see this repeated 32 times to T0 and we are there!

Ye of little faith!!.

This run actually fits the remit..

And if anything its 3/4 to late in its own evolution.via forcing/and blocking format.

Today may be marked as the drop off point....

Onwards we go.

Edited by tight isobar
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8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ye of little faith!!.

This run actually fits the remit..

And if anything its 3/4 to late in its own evolution.via forcing/and blocking format.

Today may be marked as the drop off point....

Onwards we go.

I do like your posts TI!

TBH id given up a few days ago..

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Please could someone explain something to me. It appears to be generally accepted among members here that snowfall after the middle of Feb will be short-lived on the ground due to the strength of the sun making it melt or evaporate. Indeed, during the Best from the East last Feb / Mar that was exactly what happened here in mid-Sussex despite cold uppers and surface temperatures. However, where my wife is from in Russia is further south than here, and so the sun is theoretically even stronger, but fallen snow can stay intact there despite any sun, probably through to mid March. What are the factors at play here? 

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Eps clusters show decent opportunity at day 8/9 for a cheeky little incursion from our se and beyond the extended split is indeed an undercutting slightly west based nao into a developing scandi trough ( squeaky bum time) or a solid nw Euro ridge 

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27 minutes ago, fromey said:

I don’t think I have another chase in me!!

068638F3-7828-4875-A0CF-354F22E47E83.gif

This is what the recent chase always was, easterly bit of a ted Herring. However I do expect it to go murrs way. Trigger low sending the high up sooner then it looks right now.

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Had a look through the GEFS at day 10, good news is there’s not many with the Atlantic smashing in but the bad news is the operational looks too fast in its progression, my biggest concern at the moment is even if we are to hit the jackpot and that high migrates westwards the lack of cold pooling/low heights over the continent is quite striking, could end up with a pathetic easterly or west base NAO.

i’ll be honest though whilst this is all at day10 still I’m rather struggling to gather my enthusiasm for yet another chase, it’s been a very taxing winter on my patience.

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30 minutes ago, Stav said:

Please could someone explain something to me. It appears to be generally accepted among members here that snowfall after the middle of Feb will be short-lived on the ground due to the strength of the sun making it melt or evaporate. Indeed, during the Best from the East last Feb / Mar that was exactly what happened here in mid-Sussex despite cold uppers and surface temperatures. However, where my wife is from in Russia is further south than here, and so the sun is theoretically even stronger, but fallen snow can stay intact there despite any sun, probably through to mid March. What are the factors at play here? 

We didn't really get the chance for it to hang around to long, as storm Emma came along and brought milder conditions by the 4th of march. If we could have kept the earlier pattern going the snow would have been around till mid March without a doubt, not to mention Russia being a much larger landmass and much closer to the Arctic pool of cold, and not with all the nagatives of being surrounded by sea in th uk

Edited by Mattwolves
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41 minutes ago, Purga said:

A this stage it may be termed 'Cluster's last stand'

?

Gor blimey...not only have you stolen all my snow, you've stolen my jokes too!?

Thread update:  image.thumb.png.70fb2a22a5f59b9469983fc0099f784d.png 

Edited by Ed Stone
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