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Clusters awaited - how big is the W euro ridge in the extended ?? Hopefully it’s either Griceland wedge/ridge or not and we don’t get a pesky ridge hanging back Se across the uk preventing the cold from reaching here as valuable winter days  tick by ....

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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39 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

Think it's time to open a new 'final' cold hunt thread! Over 400 pages of the same old stuff. Maybe a new thread may bring better luck! ?

We also need new background signals!

 

Edit. Frosty beat me to it!

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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No point beating around the bush, it's not going too well at the moment, this morning's runs are pretty meh. The UK temps (London):

graphe6_1000_315_151___.thumb.gif.57698792eebac719627119ca420d3780.gifgraphe3_1000_315_151___.thumb.gif.159212dee6c44ffdc8d215ffc767d14c.gif

HP dominated-weather from next week with predominantly milder air. ECM agrees, modifying its usual D8-D10 charts from overdone heights to UK high, the curse of the ECM bias. I suspect its 0z is overplayed in the opposite, so expect adjustments towards the GFS on the 12z.

The GEFS show promise way out in la la land but they have for some time and look where we are? They coincide with the current AO forecast, the next 8-10 days positive and then a suggestion trending down to negative, but too early to take seriously, though "potential" for a colder Spring if that is your thing? For those in the south, the synoptic have to be very good to get lying snow and sustained cold, but further north maybe something?

The drip-drip downwelling may add more oomph to the trop pattern if the trop interference allows later in the month, certainly the wave train should be further south after D10 due to the Atlantic trough. This will add the potential that heights can build N to NW, though an easterly is not looking very likely as per the current output after D10, and of, course there are milder outlooks!

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47 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Much better than trying to comment on every frame wouldn’t you say? At least it’s not looking great, oh scrap that lol. Think it’s time I started running again. Maybe my new hobby

I haven’t been able to run this week with the flu ? Went running in the Windsor Great Park on Sunday where there was still some snow left. Wonder if the charts will improve and deliver for the last 3rd in February for one final snowfall this winter...

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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48 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

Think it's time to open a new 'final' cold hunt thread! Over 400 pages of the same old stuff. Maybe a new thread may bring better luck! ?

It doesn’t make any difference whether there’s 4 pages or 400 pages - you click on the forum link and you’re taken to the last post you viewed automatically. 

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A significant change in EPS - less of an Atlantic attack in this suite.  Nothing cold yet but if we can get heights to lower over Europe, there is cold air to the east to tap into.

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1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Well I’m liking the output this morning, I know we’re not getting an easterly at days 5 and 6 but the models definitely going the right way . Greenland is the destination ?

6A76EF61-9A10-4F93-B21F-8286988DEC71.png

That ties in nicely with today's ECM MJO forecast which continues with its promotion of a decently amplified phase 8 by mid month. If the signal is correct, we should start to see proper Greenland heights in the models by Monday...

image.thumb.png.6c6b0396467b2073e9b5263f40999c69.png

 

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Past 3 runs from the ECM ens

Tuesday looks to be the peak of the cooler air

Thereafter place your bets a big shift towards something milder this morning around the middle part of the month then dropping back closer to average towards the end of the run

00z yesterday

graphe_ens3_php.png.2414b30a24f099853a6c

12z yesterday

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.dda696bebf5573814a16e6228241f2eb.png

00z today

00z.thumb.png.38437237c0f33e0232a6f719eb3d5178.png

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10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Past 3 runs from the ECM ens

Tuesday looks to be the peak of the cooler air

Thereafter place your bets a big shift towards something milder this morning around the middle part of the month then dropping back closer to average towards the end of the run

00z yesterday

graphe_ens3_php.png.2414b30a24f099853a6c

12z yesterday

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.dda696bebf5573814a16e6228241f2eb.png

00z today

00z.thumb.png.38437237c0f33e0232a6f719eb3d5178.png

As the high goes over us, then ne, then nw? ?  ? ? 

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19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I believe the odds of a cold spell have increased this morning - 

The low thats appeared on the UKMO can sink through the block & act as a trigger low holding the high to the North in situ-

This is an essential ingredient to sustaining any cold over the UK..

Bit cheeky I know, but if you have time could you post an image of this please. I am trying to work it out for myself looking at the charts but not entirely sure that I know what I am looking for. ?

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2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Clusters awaited - how big is the W euro ridge in the extended ?? Hopefully it’s either Griceland wedge/ridge or not and we don’t get a pesky ridge hanging back Se across the uk preventing the cold from reaching here as valuable winter days  tick by ....

NWP showing hints of your favourite Nick

image.thumb.png.85975f181ab46f37be346171994dd31e.png

The dreaded West based -ve NAO

?

 

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14 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

Bit cheeky I know, but if you have time could you post an image of this please. I am trying to work it out for myself looking at the charts but not entirely sure that I know what I am looking for. ?

Here we go

6798AAA5-4DE7-4B08-956F-394BFE4AAA8D.thumb.jpeg.bd75f19cb41d00165d3df6b4d65bcbee.jpeg

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43 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Difficult to work out the outlook because even at +144 the UKMO is more amplified than the ECM. This all impacts on how we move on from here i.e High remains in situ over Scandi or backs NW to Greenland. The pendulum keeps swinging because the UKMO keeps varying between the most promising at +144 to being the worst.

I will say though I cannot help keep looking at the chance of blocking to our NW developing and the PV dropping into Russia. Can we see the dream scenario of an incredibly cold airmass moving towards the UK during the last week of Feb??

After the dismal winter we deserve this winter to go out with a bang!i

I think every option is still on the table at the minute be it cold or mild. The dreaded word background signals are good mjo going into phases for cold chances and  nao going negative. Gfs 06z looking better than the previous run. But not very cold uppers moving around the high. I'm wanting a late cold but can it all drop into place this time. ?

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18 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Is the gfs 6z gonna turn into a stonker? 

2230F363-314F-4E5C-B254-2FD4DEE3B779.png

I think day 8/9 on the gfs is a reasonable picture of where we can expect to be, given the current nwp ..... we can hope for a more aggressive pattern re Steve’s trigger low which I’m about to look at the eps clusters to see how supported it is - typical! No clusters yet ..... Sod’s law ! 

Edited by bluearmy
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