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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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39 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

They are comments on what the models are showing at the particular time on that particular run in comparison to previous runs. Nobody is lying or being deceptive.

Mate, it's rude to comment on the model output in the model thread when its not showing cold, you ok with that?

If you don't like the UK model output on a UK weather forum, maybe you could discuss the cold pool over Siberia instead? Even though few people live there?

In all seriousness, yes it's the hunt for cold thread but its still model output discussion as well. If its just 'cold charts' then we may as well take a black and white map of the UK and paint a blue colour palette over it. 

image.thumb.png.2dc2254ab09915a3ffd179ed8caedd6b.png

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, sensible post. We really can't see much further forward than this from the op runs at the moment, uncertainties quickly creep in in synoptics like this set up, given the trajectory of the MJO in particular, and how it affects us, and there's a lag with this too, so how that factors.  All getting complicated for us and for the models, so while I'd not bet my house on a run that shows Narnia at T360, I wouldn't get worried at all if there were 'winter over' runs at that timescale.  

A winter dominated by theories and uncertainties, and disappointments for some. Still some more dice to fall before we move on to spring and summer, roll on for a bit more, winter....

The current modelling seems fairly consistent with the projections for the MJO into phase 7. Given the GFS forecast for phase 8 you wouldn't expect that to start showing on output until towards the end of the runs anyway.

If the phase 8 amplitude pans out as forecast on GFS then it would be surprising if we did not see some sort of attempt at ridging towards Greenland. For now, the ECM does not back the GFS at the same sort of amplitude though.

For the moment, I still think some sort of Sceuro high seems fairly probable in the medium range.

Edited by WhiteFox
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I’d say as it’s the hunt for cold thread that to me means discuss potential cold coming up or at least be on the look out for cold, if it’s not coming or even looking remotely possible then surely nobody would post in the COLD THREAD or am I completely wrong? There is the potential for cold again next week hence the interest in here, whether it’s another garden path incident is irrelevant at this stage

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16 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Mate, it's rude to comment on the model output in the model thread when its not showing cold, you ok with that?

If you don't like the UK model output on a UK weather forum, maybe you could discuss the cold pool over Siberia instead? Even though few people live there?

In all seriousness, yes it's the hunt for cold thread but its still model output discussion as well. If its just 'cold' then we may as well take a black and white map of the UK and paint a blue colour palette over it. 

image.thumb.png.2dc2254ab09915a3ffd179ed8caedd6b.png

Last time I looked I'm pretty sure it stated hunt for cold thread!! I for one won't disrespect anyone's opinions on this forum, think it's more of a case of the GAME OVER symbol appearing oh so frequently, and tbh it's  been appearing since December, I will happily discuss that cold pool of siberia if you can promise me its making progress westwards towards us! ??

Edited by Mattwolves
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On 19/01/2019 at 21:42, Paul said:

After a lot of thought, we've decided to revisit the hunt for cold style thread, and this is it!

In this thread, please feel free to discuss the model output with a cold slant, but should other weather types be showing in the output, discussing those is fine too.

Thread Moderation
The moderation in this thread will be on an impact basis, so if a post is likely to negatively impact the thread (by poisoning the atmosphere, creating lots of very off topic replies etc) then we'll moderate it. But for slightly off topic or bantery posts, we won't - so long as there is a general theme of the models running through the thread. 

This does mean that topics such as met office forecasts, tv forecasts, will it snow in my location type questions are still not allowed in this thread, as they are the types of things which will cause it to run off on a massive, non-model related tangent.

Want a stricter, more focused model thread?
As a sister-thread to this one, a focused, more in depth model thread is available. Please head to this thread for a slower paced, less bantery more strictly on-topic model discussion. 
Focused Model Discussion

Cross-posting between this and the focused thread is allowed, and encouraged - so please feel free to post your thoughts, model run summaries and the like into both threads if you wish.

We hope that these two threads offer the best of both worlds for everyone who want to follow and discuss the model output. 

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
GFS
GFS FV3 (Para)
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met-Office
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Model Comparison
Global Jet Stream
Stratosphere

Here y'all go, peeps...All is revealed.?

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Last time I looked I'm pretty sure it stated hunt for cold thread!! I for one won't disrespect anyone's opinions on this forum, think it's more of a case of the GAME OVER symbol appearing oh so frequently, and tbh it's. Een appearing since December, I will happily discuss that cold pool of siberia if you can promise me its making progress westwards towards us! ??

It says models and chat ? and yes a Siberian cold pool would be very nice ?, people get caught up in the model swings I think that is understandable but slating someone for stating what the model output actually shows is a slippery slope, which would cause a decline in the quality of the discussion. We are all hunting for cold but some prefer to discuss the bigger picture with respect to the cold hunt, others like the cold charts. Both are fine.

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As it's the Hunt For Cold...

Been watching this for the last couple of days - 

gfs-2-66.png?12

gfs-2-72.png?12

gfs-2-78.png?12

Marginality at its finest for the South

But maybe some interest for Scotland and the North and higher ground.

 

 

Edited by kumquat
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25 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Last time I looked I'm pretty sure it stated hunt for cold thread!! I for one won't disrespect anyone's opinions on this forum, think it's more of a case of the GAME OVER symbol appearing oh so frequently, and tbh it's  been appearing since December, I will happily discuss that cold pool of siberia if you can promise me its making progress westwards towards us! ??

Looking likely for cold moving westwards from western Russia but not looking like all the way from Siberia currently which is a bit disappointing but if the temperatures remain around or below freezing by day I’ll be very happy! ECM showing daytime highs of around 2-3 for much of the country by Friday next week 

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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ECM ensemble members:

At D7, generally we see high pressure centred somewhere between Belgium and the top of Norway. The scope for cold seems to depend on whether the incoming atlantic low disrupts in the face of the high and how much it does - most disrupt it in a way that helps create a rounded and slightly cut-off high ahead of it (resulting in continental air for the UK), but a few runs don't disrupt it favourably and a new pulse from the Azores High ridges up to the Sceuro high, causing it in most cases to flatten slightly.

By D10 there's a lot of scatter. All depends on how the Atlantic interacts with the block to the east (if it is still there). We know from experience how much "fun" that can be for the models!  I guess the models still have a problem with trying to remove such blocks too soon so there's going to be a lot of Shannon around if the initial block sets up! Oh, and the retrograde signal is still an option but don't get ahead of yourselves anyone, it isn't screaming at us just yet...

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6 minutes ago, pacifist99 said:

Yes but it’s a sub heading under MODEL DISCUSSION.  Done with this forum.  Never been the same since mods split then

I haven't got a problem with the thread so to speak pacifist, people's emotions do run a bit high when they don't see the output they expect. Most folk on here are indeed hunting for cold but emotions get the better of em when apocalypse charts aren't showing at times. Personally I can't see the point in stressing over 10 day charts as they rarely verify. The bigger picture I feel still points to something more wintry later this month, perhaps worse that what we have seen so far, not as that would take much. Overall I quite like the blend on here, as we have the best of both worlds, namely that we have some very knowledgeable posters and also some great wit and humour for good measure, so stick with it, things could be looking up ?

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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Mate, it's rude to comment on the model output in the model thread when its not showing cold, you ok with that?

If you don't like the UK model output on a UK weather forum, maybe you could discuss the cold pool over Siberia instead? Even though few people live there?

In all seriousness, yes it's the hunt for cold thread but its still model output discussion as well. If its just 'cold charts' then we may as well take a black and white map of the UK and paint a blue colour palette over it. 

image.thumb.png.2dc2254ab09915a3ffd179ed8caedd6b.png

... Hunt for cold is a clue, u said it. Maybe the mods could open a hunt for spring model thread ?

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1 hour ago, kumquat said:

As it's the Hunt For Cold...

Been watching this for the last couple of days - 

gfs-2-66.png?12

gfs-2-72.png?12

gfs-2-78.png?12

Marginality at its finest for the South

But maybe some interest for Scotland and the North and higher ground.

 

 

You and me both, quietly. Certainly a little straw clutch for sure.

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So that's that settled: this thread is exclusively coldies posting cold charts. Oh no it isn't! Oh yes it is...!

Which leaves only one question remaining: will the 'nailed-on' BFTE be so watered-down as to be homeopathic??

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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So that's that settled: this thread is exclusively coldies posting cold charts. Oh no it isn't! Oh yes it is...!

Which leaves only one question remaining: will the 'nailed-on' BFTE be so watered-down as to be homeopathic??

Lol Edd, well let's just say if it was served to you in a pub, you'd be calling it p--s water!! Maybe a rather anemic version! ?

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Again 18z GFS takes an eternity to build high pressure to where we want it, with UK under WAA while the ridge builds N close to the east, before it gives up and the high sinks

on a brighter note, new EC weeklies looking positive anomaly wise, with where we’d expect the +ve anomalies to be given MJO progression, below weeks 1-4, but the weeklies have looked promising all winter!

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CFEE9EAF-E427-41B2-9A67-563ED2E9EEF3.thumb.png.7788c4cb907f86af650853844bc3cb91.png

B1EDDBFA-082E-4958-BE7B-FD06E869D47E.thumb.png.bac1f9379dccd0f1c9481e8681cdb4fc.png

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