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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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2 minutes ago, Don said:

Could it be that the models picked up on the correct signal yesterday, but were too quick to bring in the amplification?

Hopefully its just a delay again and things will sort themselves out.

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FV3 strongly in favour of Scandi high at T192, but there is no cold air there at that point, so to gain something better towards the end of the month, we would need to see some retrogression.

image.thumb.jpg.0a16ab737444b64e94e1934ca1f5cd99.jpg

Let's see how the run develops...

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1 hour ago, booferking said:

Let's see who can spin positives out of the image below😅😅😅😅😅😅😅

 

UW144-21.gif

It’s better than what we’ve got now lol.

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Dare i say it but potentially the biggest ECM run of the year coming up.🙏

Edited by booferking

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1 minute ago, booferking said:

Dare i said but potentially the biggest ECM run of the year coming up.🙏

Agreed, in fact I’d go as far as saying this crucial ECM is make or break

 

make or break for the sanity of this thread 🙃🙃🙃🙃

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Fv3 ending on quite a cold note with uppers heading towards -10C 

Edited by Panayiotis

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2 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Agreed, in fact I’d go as far as saying this crucial ECM is make or break

 

make or break for the sanity of this thread 🙃🙃🙃🙃

 

Must have missed something, Why so crucial when promised lands is at long range? 

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1 hour ago, booferking said:

Let's see who can spin positives out of the image below😅😅😅😅😅😅😅

 

UW144-21.gif

At least it will be mild?....

giphy.gif

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2 hours ago, booferking said:

Let's see who can spin positives out of the image below😅😅😅😅😅😅😅

 

UW144-21.gif

Summer Sun won't like it, but good chart for me, no rain, not windy, and not average uk in Feb

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5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Summer Sun won't like it, but good chart for me, no rain, not windy, and not average uk in Feb

Summer Sun would like that chart!

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21 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

Fv3 ending on quite a cold note with uppers heading towards -10C 

Well you may have seen the end of it but it is still rolling sluggishly where I'm watching!  FV3 at T264:

image.thumb.jpg.ba4cb8494488cc8c4bec191fa8d63089.jpg

Looking very promising!

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well you may have seen the end of it but it is still rolling sluggishly where I'm watching!  FV3 at T264:

image.thumb.jpg.ba4cb8494488cc8c4bec191fa8d63089.jpg

Looking very promising!

No it ends rubbish, south Westerlies for a time right at the end.

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Out to 120 on Meteociel now and it looks like it's less amplified. Not by much, but still, hopefully it's not a trend.

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ECM T120 was better on yesterday’s 12z here is T96 today for comparison. Yesterday’s first . 

956FC89A-7C03-45C2-8C67-F102DED0195C.png

9BC21149-B938-435E-8B73-0AEE7BC9913F.png

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The models this winter have been shocking for such early time frames 😞

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No it ends rubbish, south Westerlies for a time right at the end.

Fair enough if you say so, I'll not bother watching the rest. Academic though, as I wouldn't trust anything beyond day 6 at the moment.  

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9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

nah, its too settled, this is SS chart

ECM1-48.GIF?07-0

He would loath that chart.

 

His favourite weather is very settled and as warm/mild as possible as he works outside I believe? 

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM T120 was better on yesterday’s 12z here is T96 today for comparison. Yesterday’s first . 

 

 

Yes, definitely a flatter trend on today's 12z runs, people may not want to hear it but if it continues on the 0z runs then history tells us it rarely recovers and it usually spells game over.

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This Mornings Garden Path run vs this evenings middle ground likely outcome run.

ECM1-120.gif

ECM1-120 (1).gif

ECM1-144 (2).gif

ECM1-144 (1).gif

Edited by booferking

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, definitely a flatter trend on today's 12z runs, people may not want to hear it but if it continues on the 0z runs then history tells us it rarely recovers and it usually spells game over.

Last week to 10 days of February probably the best chance now for a cold spell.

Edited by Don

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it’s all gone flat,again,hopeless,always chasing easterlies,

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1 minute ago, Don said:

Last week to 10 days of February probably the best chance now for a cold spell.

Or maybe the last week of June the way things are going..:crazy:

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8 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Out to 120 on Meteociel now and it looks like it's less amplified. Not by much, but still, hopefully it's not a trend.

Sadly it was, out to 144 now and all a lot flatter than it was, while not totally flat!

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Or maybe the last week of June the way things are going..:crazy:

Or maybe the first week with a snow event like June 2nd 1975?!

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