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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Some of the terms being used are very misleading ("flat", "no amplification" etc).  Nothing could be further from the truth...  

I agree but is is obvious that the amount of amplification has been scaled back somewhat.

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You can almost see the backstop down the irish sea on this chart.😅

gfs-0-186.png

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2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Some of the terms being used are very misleading ("flat", "no amplification" etc).  Nothing could be further from the truth...  

I’d agree but I think most people have been commenting with reference to the UKMO, I see no route to cold from that day 6 chart barring a miracle it’s about as bad as it gets potential wise IMO, uk weather wise it’s not that bad but given that day 6 chart it’s a long old road to cold and given that chart would be 12th Feb time is fast closing in on us.

 

Good thing is Imo the UKM at 144 has performed very poorly this winter so don’t exactly trust it

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35 minutes ago, booferking said:

Let's see who can spin positives out of the image below😅😅😅😅😅😅😅

 

UW144-21.gif

I'll be in Benidorm 🙂

Edited by Timmytour
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Day 8 still looking decent on the gfs 12z . 

A3692A64-2799-4ADE-91BF-4401AF5EE7E0.png

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12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Waiting for Snowmageddon reminds of when I used to play 1950s' 78s, on a portable gramophone:

Every day, it's a'gettin closer /snick / Every day, it's a'gettin closer /snick/ Every day, it's a'gettin closer /snick/...😎

Bilmey Ed, 78s!! Don't no about the 63 winter, you must have been about for the 1740 winter 😉😂

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anim_top2.gif

Hmmm that area of cold 850's sneaking around the high looks interesting, just in time for day 10.

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Some posts have gone, Just Model Discussion.

Thanks.

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10 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

 

Anyway, it's absolutely worthless posting Europe-only charts when the pattern will be determined across the NH as a whole.

No route to cold from here:

archives-1962-12-21-0-0.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.
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Another good run from the gfs 12z . That’s 4 in a row now with decent blocking to the NW , N and NE . Obviously variations at that range but looking good . 

CD71CACD-EE47-4340-A832-DFA13ED220C6.png

21E18CCA-2C80-4C4E-8E01-8734786DE62C.png

B337C0BE-AF24-412B-9AAA-43E40D656C22.png

0E316C85-D9B2-471E-B4A3-6A34578DEB61.png

Edited by ICE COLD
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2 hours ago, kold weather said:

In all fairness it WAS above average for Jan for a vast part of the USA, maybe not toasty but above average overall. As Ryan Maue said, 3 cold days do not a cold month make...

Anyway as BA said fairly decent agreement of an attempt at a -ve NAO towards the last week of Feb. It would be unusual even in a very +ve NAO for there not to be at least one decent -ve spell in there, which hasn't yet happened.

I think you'll find it was more than 3 days...and the anomaly chart actually showed the warmest anomalies in central parts up to Michigan/Illinois/Minnesota/Iowa etc where it was coldest but yes agree that parts of the mid-west/west coast and towards eastern seaboard were largely mild throughout that month. Anyway all water under the bridge now.

12z maybe offers some hope moving forwards but once again looking into the far reaches...

Edited by Froze were the Days

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1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

Blimey that UKMO chart is absolutely HIDEOUS, has to be the worst chart of winter so far! Absolutely shocking. 

 

At least things can only get better from that, surely? (And DONT call me Shirley)

Spin is a funny thing in the wrong hands

hardly the worst chart of the winter?

UKMO 144Z

GFS144Z

GFS 240Z wedges 

Models still working it all out

UN144-21.GIF

gfsnh-0-144.png

gfsnh-0-240.png

gfs-0-240.png

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The GEFS 12z are a massive downgrade, flat as a pancake.

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On the other hand gfs p dont look to bad at 138 hours!!!better orientation to that scandi high!!

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The GEFS 12z are a massive downgrade, flat as a pancake.

Yup totally flat lined....... you are funny at times Feb

 

gens_panel_vxy1.png

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The GEFS 12z are a massive downgrade, flat as a pancake.

I think the models are clueless at the moment?

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Just now, winterof79 said:

Yup totally flat lined....... you are funny at times Feb

 

gens_panel_vxy1.png

No they did gain some amplification right at the end but at about 290, the mean was miles flatter than the 6z and they are still worse than the 0z and the 6z, however, the runs that do have amplification in them are very very good, the ones that dont are very flat, there is 2 distinct clusters by the looks to me.

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9 minutes ago, shaky said:

On the other hand gfs p dont look to bad at 138 hours!!!better orientation to that scandi high!!

If only it was 50 miles further north 👌

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Just now, Don said:

I think the models are clueless at the moment?

The problem is Don, the wqbo seems to have dampened the effects of the SSW, which kind of allowed the polar vortex to remain stronger at upper latitudes. However even though this as been played to death, the downwelling is causing all sorts of problems with the models regarding AO and NAO fluctuations, so this could still take a while for models to get to grips with! 

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No they did gain some amplification right at the end but at about 290, the mean was miles flatter than the 6z and they are still worse than the 0z and the 6z, however, the runs that do have amplification in them are very very good, the ones that dont are very flat, there is 2 distinct clusters by the looks to me.

Could it be that the models picked up on the correct signal yesterday, but were too quick to bring in the amplification?

Edited by Don

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