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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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15 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Simply lovely

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Come here thurs more

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Very decent prospects indeed for later in the month.

Clearly the potential for an eventual west based -NAO but I would suggest we get the -NAO in place first, before we start fretting about that! 🙂

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Damn it!!!!.....I meant to post on the ICON!!!!......but the exclamation key on my keyboard is stuck!!!!!.....what can I do?!!!!!!!...has it north, south, east, or west?!!!!!!.....

 

Sorry, I'll fetch me coat!!!!!

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10 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Very decent prospects indeed for later in the month.

Clearly the potential for an eventual west based -NAO but I would suggest we get the -NAO in place first, before we start fretting about that! 🙂

Stuff the NAO!😄 Gimme me a 1987-esque BFTE, which occurred under a +ive NAO, I believe! 👍:cold::yahoo:

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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Stuff the NAO!😄 Gimme me a 1987-esque BFTE, which occurred under a +ive NAO, I believe! 👍:cold::yahoo:

No it didn't - it was negative

it wasn't as strongly negative as one might expect though, probably because the low was more East based.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Just spotted this little lot ready to leave..

@winters over

@mild crew

images (7).jpeg

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No it didn't - it was negaitive.

so positively negative or negatively positive?

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It was feb 1991 that was a positive NAO, just positive, the difference between the 2 actually is that the undercutter taking place at the time on the Jan 87 was nearer to the azores at the time of the coldest weather than the 1991 one, thats all i can think of because heights were robust to our North on both.

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16 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Those better disappear, will be windy enough tonight. The next lot look down right dangerous down here.

Are we actually/finally going to hit the sweet spot are we going negative?

DyzJrEzWkAAGZZo.jpeg

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I still expect a greeny, will be interesting if we get there through scandi though, although that a rather long route.

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I would say it's looking good at least for the s / e to get increasing surface cold next week and beyond as high pressure builds to the east and extends it's influence into the uk..further n / w probably more changeable / unsettled in comparison but further s / e / se seeing increasing risk of frost and potentially freezing fog..basically it's the current ecm signal.

Edited by Frosty.
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18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It was feb 1991 that was a positive NAO, just positive, the difference between the 2 actually is that the undercutter taking place at the time on the Jan 87 was nearer to the azores at the time of the coldest weather than the 1991 one, thats all i can think of because heights were robust to our North on both.

You're right of course, Feb...I've spent so much time on Netflix, watching The OA, I'm getting things backward!:fool:

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Possibly gerrin a bit excited especially as 87 been mentioned, think it was a negative nao at the time, but can you imagine a re run occurring, lasting 13 days in January 87, possibly the most intense of the 20th century, - 23 being the lowest recorded temp in the East mids, think that may get shaky excited. Major heavy falls in the SE and E, something like 20-30 cm of snow in places. All coming about through high pressure over siberia moving into Scandinavia and dragging in frigid easterlies, this brought a bout by low pressure over Italy. I think even southend on sea froze over at some point, funny thing being it dissipated as quick as it formed!! But my god anything remotely close to that set up would bring this place down. 🙏

 

Edited by Mattwolves
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20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I would say it's looking good at least for the s / e to get increasing surface cold next week and beyond as high pressure builds to the east and extends it's influence into the uk..further n / w probably more changeable / unsettled in comparison but further s / e / se seeing increasing risk of frost and potentially freezing fog..basically it's the current ecm signal.

And the Mets

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1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

Well worth popping on to micheal ventrice site..for hes latest tweet!!!

No thanks!...the same Michael Ventrice who was showing temperature anomaly charts in fairly early January for mid-month onwards about the effects of the SSW in the States (particularly central and northern states) and yes showing very warm anomalies and mentioning 'toasty'?...the rest is history.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

No thanks!...the same Michael Ventrice who was showing temperature anomaly charts in fairly early January for mid-month onwards about the effects of the SSW in the States (particularly central and northern states) and yes showing very warm anomalies and mentioning 'toasty'...the rest is history.

That was the nomination @that point.

And by now we know this winter will be earmarked-for its pure unpredictability, and headache forecasting!!!!

Via ssw..and miss figured downwelling!!

Edited by tight isobar
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5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

No thanks!...the same Michael Ventrice who was showing temperature anomaly charts in fairly early January for mid-month onwards about the effects of the SSW in the States (particularly central and northern states) and yes showing very warm anomalies and mentioning 'toasty'...the rest is history.

Interesting, I think he as good as quoted winter was over for the Eastern seaboard based on the gfs data, the yanks havING non of it though as they much prefer to see what the ECM is showing, let's face it this winter has got even the boffins stumped that's what makes it all the more interesting, 👍

Edited by Mattwolves
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34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s two gefs runs which show a greeny block as we enter the final week of feb .......almost a year to the day that we saw it doing the same thing ........

Yes and for those who doubt the continent won't be cold enough come the time we drag in an Easterly feed.

Feb 13th last year 

Then Feb 28th with Asian PV lobe drained 

 

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Edited by winterof79
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10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Yes and for those who doubt the continent won't be cold enough cone the time we drag in an Easterly feed.

Feb 13th last year 

Then Feb 28th with Asian PV lobe drained 

 

archivesnh-2018-2-13-0-0.png

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Good point..

And just quickly its not what you see on the models @facevalue..

Its decipher of dynamics on how it will get to a point..

Then-calculate when fruition is reached..

Plus that way removes a lot of headaches.

Pv drain and spill..still look as good as ever a later this month..

And those writting a evaporative/diluted incursion..may wanna wait a wee while!!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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18 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

No thanks!...the same Michael Ventrice who was showing temperature anomaly charts in fairly early January for mid-month onwards about the effects of the SSW in the States (particularly central and northern states) and yes showing very warm anomalies and mentioning 'toasty'?...the rest is history.

In all fairness it WAS above average for Jan for a vast part of the USA, maybe not toasty but above average overall. As Ryan Maue said, 3 cold days do not a cold month make...

Anyway as BA said fairly decent agreement of an attempt at a -ve NAO towards the last week of Feb. It would be unusual even in a very +ve NAO for there not to be at least one decent -ve spell in there, which hasn't yet happened.

Edited by kold weather
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3 minutes ago, Southender said:

The Thames at Southend did indeed freeze. I was but a nipper, but remember walking out on the Thames at high tide. We had a lot more than 30cm of snow as well. Here’s a video from my area at the time - 

 

Fondly remembered👌

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I am certainly optimistic with regards to a pressure build to our north and east (Met should be commended) however i am far from sold on it not being a cloudy south easterly.

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