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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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58 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

I'll give it a go. Still learning how to read them and, albeit FI, I think we would like this to verify. (Or not?) 😁

gfsnh-0-384.png

Fi as you say but yes a nice looking chart.👍

‘following on from mucka’s mean chart last night, here is this mornings. 😱  A quick run through the gefs and there some beauties as you would imagine with a mean like that. 

AFCD1036-E4D5-4CEE-AAB2-392E61295543.png

Edited by That ECM

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1 hour ago, Mizzle said:

I'll give it a go. Still learning how to read them and, albeit FI, I think we would like this to verify. (Or not?) 😁

gfsnh-0-384.png

I can read them as well as you’d expect after viewing them for ten years but now I tend to follow certain posters.

 

Well that quoted the wrong person.

Edited by Ramp

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T168 ecm. Very nice. Big chances from there. Ukmo is not as good at t144 as ecm and the limited view of the t168 Ukmo is not going to show us the area of interest. Tonight’s output is going to be interesting to view.

E6BDF532-87AC-42ED-900A-4253D821E8AC.png

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Both GFS, GFS parallel and ECM showing Interesting developments in the medium/longer term. We will have to see how things go but definitely some thing to keep the interest towards the end of metrological winter.

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Just checking in. No cold in the models other than two frosts, possibly. Back in ten days.

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7 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

@bluearmy you said last night you’d expect some nice op runs appearing in the next 4 runs 👍. Well the 18z was a stonker. 

Well I said we should be concerned if there weren’t any by yesterday evening 

7 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Maybe...What do you think? 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020612_264.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020612_312.

 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020612_360.

I think the model is thrashing about  a bit around a theme ......where will the high anomoly end up in two weeks...... starting to see the griceland region as a decent shout 

 

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Lol. ECM will put a cat amongst the pigeons this morning. Looking pretty good so far... Ok, not snowmageddon but better than the euro high muck being forecast earlier this week.

 

Edited by Seasonality

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Much better Ukmo than what was showing yesterday with SW’ies. 👍 Happy with GFS 0z which isn’t far off something epic. Decent Ecm too.

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32 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Some stella tastic -AOs this morning-

F7064069-46BB-46E2-B896-F884780DF465.thumb.png.971b6395f0f8c06b6f19f6c29dee02e6.png

Indeed so Steve. Plenty to keep up the interest for coldies.

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What a turnaround this week, we gone from a one day Northerly topper to possibly an easterly, the Ukmo was the first to hint at this from  its t168 hour chart a few days ago  before dropping the idea  then all models seem to be agreeing on it, now let's hope it make the reliable time frame. For once! 

Edited by SLEETY

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3 hours ago, Mizzle said:

I'll give it a go. Still learning how to read them and, albeit FI, I think we would like this to verify. (Or not?) 😁

gfsnh-0-384.png

Just to be clear, I meant that I am still learning, not @Ramp

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Looks like the increasing amounts of amplification early on, is starting to show its hand even more this morning.  

Edited by frosty ground

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9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The easterly may however just be a stepping stone towards  eventually pressure building to the nw  or north.

 

Excellent point Nick which members should take note of.

Should the E,ly develop which at the moment is looking likely. The depth of cold although subject to change is unlikely to bring what many seek on here. I feel we're going to need to see this high back W into the Greenland/Iceland location and bring in those bitter N/NE,lys. The GFS Para is a good example of this.

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2 hours ago, DCee said:

Just checking in. No cold in the models other than two frosts, possibly. Back in ten days.

Thanks for the input.,🙄

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UKMO extended looks to have the high a bit further south than ECM at t168

ukm2.2019021400_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.6026e7e1d51d59f62ff4ca5bfa8f8dd3.png

ECM

ecm2.2019021400_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.2c35c183ebfca9bfd5f1468664761080.png

The closest match to UKMO on the angle these charts provide is GEM

cmc2.2019021400_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.368d356dcf4ca5bde801d43044738a46.png

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Icon less amplified early on which then results in a slightly flatter pattern at 120 hours!!still dont think anything is going to come from this!!evrrything shall just flatten out closer to the time like it has all winter!!

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Seriously though regardless of that phase 8 MJO BJO whatever you call it!! watch everything flatten out again as if by magic lol!!let the flatten start with the gfs 06z!!!!its a horrible tease from the models especially when the winter has been so boring!!i hope we see the scandi high happen but right now am saying no!!

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Just now, shaky said:

Seriously though regardless of that phase 8 MJO BJO whatever you call it!! watch everything flatten out again as if by magic lol!!let the flatten start with the gfs 06z!!!!its a horrible tease from the models especially when the winter has been so boring!!i hope we see the scandi high happen but right now am saying no!!

Calm down dear, its only one run

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