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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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T168 ecm. Very nice. Big chances from there. Ukmo is not as good at t144 as ecm and the limited view of the t168 Ukmo is not going to show us the area of interest. Tonight’s output is going to be interesting to view.

E6BDF532-87AC-42ED-900A-4253D821E8AC.png

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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7 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

@bluearmy you said last night you’d expect some nice op runs appearing in the next 4 runs ?. Well the 18z was a stonker. 

Well I said we should be concerned if there weren’t any by yesterday evening 

7 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Maybe...What do you think? 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020612_264.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020612_312.

 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020612_360.

I think the model is thrashing about  a bit around a theme ......where will the high anomoly end up in two weeks...... starting to see the griceland region as a decent shout 

 

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Lol. ECM will put a cat amongst the pigeons this morning. Looking pretty good so far... Ok, not snowmageddon but better than the euro high muck being forecast earlier this week.

 

Edited by Seasonality
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What a turnaround this week, we gone from a one day Northerly topper to possibly an easterly, the Ukmo was the first to hint at this from  its t168 hour chart a few days ago  before dropping the idea  then all models seem to be agreeing on it, now let's hope it make the reliable time frame. For once! 

Edited by SLEETY
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3 hours ago, Mizzle said:

I'll give it a go. Still learning how to read them and, albeit FI, I think we would like this to verify. (Or not?) ?

gfsnh-0-384.png

Just to be clear, I meant that I am still learning, not @Ramp

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Icon less amplified early on which then results in a slightly flatter pattern at 120 hours!!still dont think anything is going to come from this!!evrrything shall just flatten out closer to the time like it has all winter!!

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Seriously though regardless of that phase 8 MJO BJO whatever you call it!! watch everything flatten out again as if by magic lol!!let the flatten start with the gfs 06z!!!!its a horrible tease from the models especially when the winter has been so boring!!i hope we see the scandi high happen but right now am saying no!!

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Just now, shaky said:

Seriously though regardless of that phase 8 MJO BJO whatever you call it!! watch everything flatten out again as if by magic lol!!let the flatten start with the gfs 06z!!!!its a horrible tease from the models especially when the winter has been so boring!!i hope we see the scandi high happen but right now am saying no!!

Calm down dear, its only one run

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7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looking at the ECM ensemble members this morning confirmed what I suspected - if we end up in a flow east of south by D10, then the uppers can be binned to some extent in relation to surface temperatures. By 16th February, the op and control run both have midday temperatures between 0C and 4C at very best (slightly higher in far SW), and all other runs in a similar vein also struggle to get much of the country far above freezing.

As to the overall synoptic pattern, the runs producing a continental flow in the D7-D10 (ala ECM op) are slightly in the majority but it's not done and dusted, there will be a sizeable cluster than flatten the pattern earlier. But the frontrunner right now for mid month is the below average (albeit dry) option.

Further on, scatter increases, so blocks to the east are not necessary stable ones - However, a number of members are trying to undercut the High, like @bluearmypicked up on last night. There's a number of ways things could go, and the retrogression option is clearly there. Very few runs build a Feb 2018 style cold pool to the east though, so more "upgrades" will be needed for a true beasterly.

All in all, probably as good a position that coldies could have hoped for 48 hours ago.

Was thinking about people assuming that a late feb easterly will bring a BFTE .... last feb was exceptional- the ridge got way to our ne which enabled the Siberian cold pool to be advected a long way sw into nw Europe  ..... and beyond ....

Edited by bluearmy
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