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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
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Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

    UKMO extended looks fairly mild on the 12z at t168 with some rain spreading in from the west

    ukm2.2019021312_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.49edf139333506898d9f8ae08ce93587.png

    Be interesting to see frame after if any progress east of the system or does it stall. Due to easterly high pressure.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
    9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

     Not sure posters are appreciating the big differences we are seeing within a few days. Suddenly we have a very amplified picture within a week whereas a couple days ago it looked pretty flat ......  go back about ten days and the general feel post the wintry spell was a period of mobility, followed by a push ne of the Azores ridge and the potential for a scandi ridge.  take out the week of ‘meh’ nwp and we are getting back to where we thought we could be going. 

    now add the slider potential (re day 10 ec op and clusters from the 00z) and we could easily arrive mid month with euro low anoms and high anoms to the north ...... it may be a step too far to ask you to have fait( in this but it is making some sense .....

    It's been clear all winter that Atlantic systems are struggling to push through the UK on a regular basis. I never bought into the high pressure setting up to the south scenario; given a lack of momentum from the west, north-building ridges always seemed a decent possibility. 

    Exactly where the ridge ends up depends very much on the upper low over Canada; nudges slightly east or west will have a large impact on the source of the airmass which we receive.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Shaky putting it well, the change from 0z ensembles is defo a good thing. A colder cluster starting develop in the ens maybe? Trend or a wonk?

    Edited by Snowman.
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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    21 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

    Maybe USA got effects first then we have got them after. Just a thought.

    I think this is just a myth, during the beast last year the eastern US was exceptionally mild.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    When you get an Easterly developing the downward 'arc' of cold in the ENS is generally gradual -

    Here is the 00z

    BB368907-3FF0-4FB8-80A0-05C7436811DA.thumb.jpeg.8b222b398382a7c9b207bea7ff3978b3.jpeg

    I would like to see the UKMO on board though-

    I don't like the way the graph is rising at the end.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Ecm 12z ensemble mean again shows the atlantic hitting the buffers next week due to an increasingly strong block to the east, very like the 00z..very good trend!?

    EDM1-192.gif

    EDM1-216.gif

    EDM0-216.gif

    EDM1-240.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    I don't like the way the graph is rising at the end.

    Perhaps the 12z ens will be different?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Don said:

    Perhaps the 12z ens will be different?

    Sorry, didn't read Steve's post properly -lemon!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    19 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    I don't like the way the graph is rising at the end.

    It’s feb ..... climatology dictates that it’s almost inevitable at the back end of a two week ens suite ........ 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Sorry, didn't read Steve's post properly -lemon!

    image.thumb.png.e5a454169527db0adab849be5d84b259.png

     

    Trending downward

    image.thumb.png.e257f72096b082d5a74dee1a8ccffdb3.png

    Edited by winterof79
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    Looking at ecm and gfs 12z runs tonight and how completely different they are at 240 just proves how unbelievable the models are beyond a cirtain point of time and how it's almost impossible to forecast what's really going to happen beyond a weeks time ,even the AO  forecast has changed in the last 3 days from staying around the -3 to now going plus 4/5,good luck to those who can get a forecast right from these models but for me I'm going down to the river to grab a handful of seaweed  and watch that instead and carry on looking at the fax charts instead

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    It’s feb ..... climatology dictates that it’s almost inevitable at the back end of a two week ens suite ........ 

    Hmm - still think a location further East on the mainland is at its coldest in Feb and would certainly not expect it to rise if a lot of those runs are Easterlies, my post was crap though because i didn't think to look at the time, hoping for drop at the end on the 12z, certainly those graphs were trending downwards at the end this time last year.

    EDIT : 12 graph better but really want to be seeing much more frigid on future runs

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    ECM has the fastest east MJO move within the next week and so is generating the most amplification to the pattern during the window of opportunity for establishing a Scandi High far enough north to deliver a decent cold feed to us.

    A rarely mentioned quirk of Scandi highs is that it’s actually easier to get a good draw of cold from the east from them when there’s a Canadian vortex driving lows to move west-east but pass north of it; the high elongates and draws cold from further east where it’s usually colder. They’re not usually the most prolonged affairs mind - for that you tend to need little or no movement of LP past north of the high with disruption against it instead. Signs we could achieve that with a bit more amplification added. Could do with GEFS reducing the MJO stall time a bit.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Southend, Essex
  • Location: Near Southend, Essex
    1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

    I agree in what you say to a point, but deserving it!! I very much doubt the weather gods are looking down and saying, oh there's poor old blighty, they had a naff brexit deal, let's give the poor buggers some - 20 uppers, if only ??

    Maybe the beast will want to pop over again before he needs a Visa?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK

    Praying for ecm to be the reality at the end of next week! Nice easterly feed showing with a large Scandi high!

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    7 minutes ago, Hammer said:

    ICON 18z shows some very strong winds on South Coast T90. 

    Those better disappear, will be windy enough tonight. The next lot look down right dangerous down here.

    Edited by alexisj9
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