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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes true although no matter what the uppers are, you wont get snow well in land while the winds are a straight Northerly, and when the winds veer NW ly - they tend to just raise the uppers a little.

Yep and that’s why I want winds from the NE or East . Don’t get me wrong I’d take a stonking long lasting northerly but there rare and don’t last long . East is best . Then clusters Nick posted look good so let’s see where we go . 

Edited by ICE COLD

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Apparently a lack of Data on the GFS18z

68EF5306-3310-48C3-9619-D85681577676.thumb.jpeg.9ec66071b214ce13276d11bf5f9385f3.jpeg

If you’re wondering What does this mean?:

“It shows the amount of data gone into the initial conditions. More data in usually means a better idea of atmosphere at starting condition.”

Edited by karlos1983

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Apparently a lack of Data on the GFS18z

68EF5306-3310-48C3-9619-D85681577676.thumb.jpeg.9ec66071b214ce13276d11bf5f9385f3.jpeg

That means we can bin the ensembles as well then?  might as well go to bed now!

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25 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Say what? Just a reminder this is a weather forum! 

My area is in the pink zone I.e. snow...

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep and that’s why I want winds from the NE or East . Don’t get me wrong I’d take a stonking long lasting northerly but there rare and don’t last long . East is best . Then clusters Nick posted look good so let’s see where we go . 

well in Blackburn were about 30 miles East from Blackpool on the West Coast. but in the Easterly last Feb the showers were easily reaching us , so even for here id love an Easterly. Nwlys do create alot of heavy hail showers here though

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Apparently a lack of Data on the GFS18z

68EF5306-3310-48C3-9619-D85681577676.thumb.jpeg.9ec66071b214ce13276d11bf5f9385f3.jpeg

That's down to the fact that they're having their xmas party later due to the shutdown over christmas. :ninja:

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U got to love the GFS  and GFS par because even at 108 hours they are a thousand miles difference between them.

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Apparently a lack of Data on the GFS18z

68EF5306-3310-48C3-9619-D85681577676.thumb.jpeg.9ec66071b214ce13276d11bf5f9385f3.jpeg

Balloon data missing 91% of data 😮

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Balloon data missing 91% of data 😮

That's the government shut down for you. Not enough people to blow them up.

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7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Apparently a lack of Data on the GFS18z

68EF5306-3310-48C3-9619-D85681577676.thumb.jpeg.9ec66071b214ce13276d11bf5f9385f3.jpeg

If you’re wondering What does this mean?:

“It shows the amount of data gone into the initial conditions. More data in usually means a better idea of atmosphere at starting condition.”

someone is winding you up mate, that chart aint real

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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Balloon data missing 91% of data 😮

Yeah that’s more than just a bit lol

 

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Just now, BlackburnChris said:

someone is winding you up mate, that chart aint real

It’s not a wind up. It’s very much real. 

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11 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Oh what rain yea marvelous 

Cold rain at that. Horrible run for my location in West Sussex, unless you like below average temps but nothing wintry of note. Good luck further north. Looks handy. 

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24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wan't some proper uppers!

here you go:oldgrin:

images.jpg.37782213c95b17a16d043f5bef747832.jpg

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5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Balloon data missing 91% of data 😮

Well trump told the demos  , if we cant have the wall then u cant have the balloons 😂😂

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

It’s not a wind up. It’s very much real. 

Well it would explain the variances between the GFS and Para at 162

image.thumb.png.9afa11a643818b477b6292e9ea802375.png image.thumb.png.f3460702776d6f1c8e638d8dd83dfd1d.png

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1 minute ago, pureasthedriven said:

Cold rain at that. Horrible run for my location in West Sussex, unless you like below average temps but nothing wintry of note. Good luck further north. Looks handy. 

Can keep it down there 😂 

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According to that image,  61GB of data is missing from the 1.96TB.

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8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Balloon data missing 91% of data 😮

Must be too windy from there winter storm🌬️

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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

According to that image,  61GB of data is missing from the 1.96TB.

I'd blame those russians 😂😂

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5 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

U got to love the GFS  and GFS par because even at 108 hours they are a thousand miles difference between them.

The start data is different and the Par is showing data as slower than GFS. i.e a low by Iceland is further West etc. It also has wider -5 850mb temperatures to our West.

If you compare the two by opening two windows you can see that change. interesting that soon it will be operational and the main source. So you would suspect they will tweek it as it runs now to become more accurate. Thats of course if its not already accurate. 

Anyone compared it with ensembles to see if it running close to one of those 

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ECMWF 46 day model and their seasonal have failed badly with January setup I can say now. For example(46d)in their update from 14.12 went with predominantly -NAO in January. We know now that NAO went negative for few days only,its set to go - for a while after 22nd and then back positive. Now onto their seasonal model from 11/18. It has a pronounced Sceuro high anomaly, yet we can say if USA werent on shut down and if we could do NCEP NCAR January 2019 500mb reanalysis between 01/01/19 and 20/01/19 it would show a Sceuro through,nearly opposite of what EC seasonal had projected in November. 

received_2443735872321359.png

download (24).png

received_518951238623975.png

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2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well it would explain the variances between the GFS and Para at 162

image.thumb.png.9afa11a643818b477b6292e9ea802375.png image.thumb.png.f3460702776d6f1c8e638d8dd83dfd1d.png

Not sure what impacts it will have, but if the start data is wrong.... god only knows what the low res results are... surprised it didn’t show the moon by +300 to be honest 🤣

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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

According to that image,  61GB of data is missing from the 1.96TB.

Much depends on where that data is missing from. For example that could make a difference for locations that don't get huge amounts of data anyway such as the polar regions, etc.

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