Cold hunt - models and chat

[frosty ground]

That extra amplification early on shows it's hand

[frosty ground]

You can see the jet get into the Arctic Circle

Edited February 6, 2019 by frosty ground

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

UKMO - 0.5/10

GFS - 2/10

ICON - 4/10

GEM - 0/10

I would wait until the end of the GFS before passing judgement, could be a stonker, unlesss you are judging the short term expecting one of those imaginary Easterlies that are supposed to suddenly pop up at D7 without any previous ensemble support but never do.

[frosty ground]

the amplification early on is really showing it's hand now 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

14 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

UKMO - 0.5/10

GFS - 2/10

ICON - 4/10

GEM - 0/10

And cfs 10/10

[Polar Maritime]

Let's please keep it friendly in here.

[mountain shadow]

10 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

You mean i'm highlight changes to the models in the model thread.
 

I was disputing that there was any change in the models though in the model thread.

If you felt my response to you was belittling then I humbly apologise, it was not my intention.

Edited February 6, 2019 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Weathizard]

20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would wait until the end of the GFS before passing judgement, could be a stonker, unlesss you are judging the short term expecting one of those imaginary Easterlies that are supposed to suddenly pop up at D7 without any previous ensemble support but never do.

Writing is on the wall mate, dreadful 12z runs... GFS looks absolutely  awful even at day 10 or so look at that PV, ominous signs IMO, love cold/snow as much as anyone but must be realistic, the prognosis is poor.

Edited February 6, 2019 by Weathizard

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Writing is on the wall mate, dreadful 12z runs... GFS looks absolute awful even at day 10 or so look at that PV, ominous signs IMO, love cold/snow as much as anyway but must be realistic, the prognosis is poor.

Agree in general yes - i am not one to carry on living in dreamland, however though, on that run a Scandi high could have easily developed, even now thats bust, a Northerly could still develop.

[frosty ground]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

I was disputing that there was any change in the models though in the model thread.

If you felt my response to you was belittling then I humbly apologise, it was not my intention.

You wasn't you said there was only 50 miles of amplification, an opinion that can be countered by simply looking at the available charts.

you made the comment by your own admission to point out that it wasn't going to affect us, something I didn't even claim it would.

You constantly using the Laughing icon at a lot of post that simply make a comment on the models.



O look the amplification has had an affect, not only in terms of high pressure to our east, but the uppers are actually colder.



All down to amplification you say didn't exist 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Writing is on the wall mate, dreadful 12z runs... GFS looks absolute awful even at day 10 or so look at that PV, ominous signs IMO, love cold/snow as much as anyway but must be realistic, the prognosis is poor.

Sometimes Weathizard when the prognosis is poor it pays to get a second or 3rd opinion and await a better outcome. You can't put paid to the next 4 weeks on the back of several afternoon runs, especially as non of the for mentioned models have covered themselves in much glory this winter

[Weathizard]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

Sometimes Weathizard when the prognosis is poor it pays to get a second or 3rd opinion and await a better outcome. You can't put paid to the next 4 weeks on the back of several afternoon runs, especially as non of the for mentioned models have covered themselves in much glory this winter

With the way this winter has gone mate it’s hard to see a good outcome, we’ve had much better potential than this all winter so far and achieved pretty much nothing in terms of a proper cold spell, not writing anything off I think March could be the month again if we get anything, but based on current output I can’t see a viable way of us getting a prolonged cold spell any time soon.

Pivoting, unrelenting azores heights and a strong polar vortex in a terrible position have been prominent all winter and show no sign of packing up.

[Methuselah]

I thought I'd view the entire run before reaching my verdict...So here it is:

CRAP!

[mountain shadow]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 a Northerly could still develop.

I think that's our best bet in a couple of weeks if we can get a decent high amplitude phase 8 MJO 

Tonight's ECM will give us a clue as to whether the Easterly is a bust. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

With the way this winter has gone mate it’s hard to see a good outcome, we’ve had much better potential than this all winter so far and achieved pretty much nothing in terms of a proper cold spell, not writing anything off I think March could be the month again if we get anything, but based on current output I can’t see a viable way of us getting a prolonged cold spell any time soon.

Pivoting, unrelenting azores heights and a strong polar vortex in a terrible position have been prominent all winter and show no sign of packing up.

I see where your coming from, but with high pressure building next week it ain't gonna need much adjustment to bring in a much colder continental feed,, you maybe right with March, I personally think devoloments could get interesting in the final 3rd of this month, let's just wait and see

Edited February 6, 2019 by Mattwolves

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Perhaps he will go over too the other site, Brian Gaze and Gavin Partridge etc, there site is brilliant to,

I've split my sides laughing here, they been saying on that side winter was over in October, anyway this is netweather so let's have less of the bigging up of other sites please

[IDO]

10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I think that's our best bet in a couple of weeks if we can get a decent high amplitude phase 8 MJO 

Tonight's ECM will give us a clue as to whether the Easterly is a bust. 

Sensible. There are two ways this can still go and heights building NE, NE/E remains on the cards, ATM!

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

I think that's our best bet in a couple of weeks if we can get a decent high amplitude phase 8 MJO 

Tonight's ECM will give us a clue as to whether the Easterly is a bust. 

What easterly? There is really no sign of any easterly appearing in the models at all, the PV is simply too strong to allow any meaningful height rises to occur over Scandinavia to be maintained for an easterly flow to develop at this stage. What we may see is as high pressure tries to make an influence on the UK weather, it will orientate in such a way we get a Southerly/SSE'ly flow which will limit upper air temperatures and more definately limit ground temperatures and we may get a quiet settled period with overnight frosts. Some runs do this but the vast majority suggests a more SW'ly flow which will bring a lot more cloud cover and eventually widespread double figure temperatures. 

That said, we do have a brief cold shot for the 2nd part of the weekend and Monday morning could dawn on a cold frosty note for some but if anyone is looking for a reliable snowy set up, then forget it because the PV over the pole is just simply too strong and no models is suggesting we are going to head down that sort of route anytime soon.

I think one of the reasons why any background signals may not of worked favourably for cold weather is because the PV over the Arctic has been stronger this year than in previous years, its a catch 22 really because if you do break that PV into smaller parts then the chances for severe cold does increase if it ends up in the right place however a stronger PV traditionally is harder to break down despite more favourable background signals for cold.

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS at 240 say Game on for Easterly by 384.

[winterof79]

High pressure moving in next week

[Blessed Weather]

I have removed several posts. Please be respectful to the views of others or your post will be removed. This should be a friendly forum where everyone is entitled to their opinion on what the model output is showing without being subjected to petty contradictions and/or snipes. Thank you.

[winterof79]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS at 240 say Game on for Easterly by 384.

Copy that

[Iceaxecrampon]

37 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Writing is on the wall mate, dreadful 12z runs... GFS looks absolutely  awful even at day 10 or so look at that PV, ominous signs IMO, love cold/snow as much as anyone but must be realistic, the prognosis is poor.

Tundra and Blizzards next week it is then.......

[Iceaxecrampon]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS at 240 say Game on for Easterly by 384.

....Thats nearly Easter 

[That ECM]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS at 240 say Game on for Easterly by 384.

The majority at t 300 plus go on to flatten it to be fair.

Edited February 6, 2019 by That ECM