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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

00z ECMWF still has a heavy snow signal for Sunday morning for Wales, SW England, Midlands, southern end of northern England.

ECMWF_102_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.thumb.png.f6bcc2d779de0f26166ff753d074ac8b.pngECMWF_108_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.thumb.png.1211bde0e68410342aa9a6650b9f4af2.png

Some very strong winds across southern counties and through English Channel, if this combines with the snow, could be blizzards over SW moors and Welsh hills.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019020600_102_18_379.thumb.png.328cfa81c33c5986322f05ebc7714a00.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2019020600_105_18_379.thumb.png.7a4416b0101762b52c8fa5009f88eacd.png

00z ICON took a deep low further south across northern France

overview_20190206_00_096.thumb.jpg.69bf736508d275b48d464a6a0c66e82b.jpg

00z GFS has a shallow wave running east similar track to 00z EC on Sunday morning, 

Too early to say where this low tracks and how deep, but concerning the potential for very strong winds and snow on northern flank so needs closely monitoring

Icon 06z takes it further north and deeper!!more like ecm!

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Icon 06z takes it further north and deeper!!more like ecm!

And we’re off. Left a bit, right a bit, up a bit,down a bit,  fire. 😂😂  for the older members 😀😀

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UKMO extended has returned after no 12z update looks to be a reasonably mild flow with some rain in the west

ukm2.2019021300_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.89a768a911fd9bc623596b01d14aa645.png

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2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

noticed this, on GFS too, no doubt it'll do the usual and give Somerset and S of M4 a pasting sigh

ECM1-96.GIF?06-12

Chart i'm seeing doesn't have that low there .

 

gfs-0-96.png?0?6

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ECM ensembles ate pretty bullish about snow chance on Sunday, large majority have something. Location is very much up in the air. S.Midlands southwards is just favoured on the ensembles though there are a decent number further north as well.

06z ICON main story is probably winds. 90-105mph gusts in the south coast on that run, locally even a touch more

Edited by kold weather
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1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

image.thumb.png.f65f8aed0104bb35ac5055b5efd9c005.png

I cant go through another Southern correction week🤣

I can lol. It can correct far enough south for those strong winds to do one 

Edited by alexisj9
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20 minutes ago, shaky said:

Icon 06z takes it further north and deeper!!more like ecm!

Yep, similar track but a little deeper at 966, some very strong 80-90mph gusts south coast and English Channel  - snow for Wales and N England

iconeu_uk1-2-96-0.thumb.png.12dff0b5a623d922dd59e6e985525d92.pngiconeu_uk1-11-96-0.thumb.png.c73048a4cbe964bc8c49d4544779e1ef.pngiconeu_uk1-42-96-0.thumb.png.ca07358e8b4ba6508e32611b8bbf5e5a.png

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Extended Ecm 00z ensemble mean indicates the atlantic will soon hit the buffers with a strong block forming to the east extending over the uk.👍

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Extended Ecm 00z ensemble mean indicates the atlantic will soon hit the buffers with a strong block forming to the east extending over the uk.👍

 

My main concern is still with the Iceland SLP mean.

prmslReyjavic.png

A suggestion for next winter especially for any new members here.

Whilst this winter we have seen many promising signals, forecasts from various sources, the GEFS SLP mean for Iceland has hardly ever gone beyond 1020mb. You may ask why is this important but back during the infamous Dec 2009, 2010 cold spells the SLP mean rose and remained above 1030mb from a considerable distance out. Whilst these can obviously be wrong its always worth checking these ensembles when a GH is being predicted from various sources.

I will add im not having a go at the background signals. This winter has been very odd and left many scratching their heads. Yesterday I was reading back some forecasts from a Pro Meterologist who produces weekly forecasts for 1 month ahead for Canada, USA. Im not going to mention his name but OMG how inaccurate he was. One update would predict below average temps for NE USA and then the next update the complete reverse. For some unknown reason this winter has been unforecastable!

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Well, if snow is definitely off the menu, for the time being, I'd rather have balmy-feeling, energy-saving southwesterlies than day after day of anticyclonic gloom...

image.thumb.png.62edacc49d905de5e4833d9e169b9015.pngimage.thumb.png.7ec3f38151c905dfe2a665b8e15386a1.png 

Perhaps we'll have to wait for the PV's 'springtime' fragmentation/collapse, for any real excitement?🤔

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2 hours ago, chris55 said:

ECM getting blocked from 144, Atlantic halted. Would be cold and frosty for the majority with some fog. Potential then for the high to move into a more favourable position.

5780CBED-31CC-44A7-94F3-BCF09B1F43A4.thumb.png.2e4815f476144507584032c5b8ae277d.pngDBA79331-B27C-497A-8AB2-F368DAC3E5C9.thumb.png.0b753c31fc7b51e4a632737708c71e6f.png24F25BCC-DE63-4659-8AB6-A5F8DCD870E0.thumb.png.c15ed07c58966ab9d97c26fcf7d18bfc.png

More or a less a year to the day when the Beast first showed.

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Surely next winter will be better with solar minimum & E-QBO

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1 minute ago, Bruegelian said:

Surely next winter will be better with solar minimum & E-QBO

Depends at what point during the winter the QBO flips to E and also how far past solar min we are, we could do with a double dip El nino as well, preferably CP and a cold PDO.

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3 minutes ago, Bruegelian said:

Surely next winter will be better with solar minimum & E-QBO

Fingers crossed..

Seems to me the W QBO has destroyed winter this time round.

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Not one for the Friends of Day Sixteen::help:

image.thumb.png.e585c81c310419d205cbf16d62bf79df.pngimage.thumb.png.4a1dd3e1b7c102ecd4f78504978d5492.png  

But don't forget the background signals!😁

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17 minutes ago, Bruegelian said:

Surely next winter will be better with solar minimum & E-QBO

Is next winter E-QBO or are transitioning from west to east during the winter?

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19 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Depends at what point during the winter the QBO flips to E and also how far past solar min we are, we could do with a double dip El nino as well, preferably CP and a cold PDO.

Reckon only the gulf stream shutting down would clinch it.

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45 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, if snow is definitely off the menu, for the time being, I'd rather have balmy-feeling, energy-saving southwesterlies than day after day of anticyclonic gloom...

image.thumb.png.62edacc49d905de5e4833d9e169b9015.pngimage.thumb.png.7ec3f38151c905dfe2a665b8e15386a1.png 

Perhaps we'll have to wait for the PV's 'springtime' fragmentation/collapse, for any real excitement?🤔

A slightly stronger high and a bit further north and we'd at least have sunshine to go along with the silly warmth. I also wouldn't mind that for a few days!

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1 hour ago, That ECM said:

And we’re off. Left a bit, right a bit, up a bit,down a bit,  fire. 😂😂  for the older members 😀😀

image.thumb.png.a67216ab19b08cf1d1041780b5a2aef0.png

Well it is 'model' related - sort of 😁

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So from going through just 3 pages this morning I've gone from the euphoric state of snow and force 9 gales to 16day blow torch heat predictions from gfs, now its don't worry about it, winter next year looking much more promising, perhaps we have some early background signals emerging to show this. God my nerves are frayed, please don't do this to me, not again 🙏😂🤣

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14 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Is next winter E-QBO or are transitioning from west to east during the winter?

Probably the latter, but 2016 had a strange anomaly where the westerly pattern re-asserted itself midway through the year and we ended up with 24 months of a W-QBO instead of the usual 12-14 months. 

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24 minutes ago, jethro said:

Reckon only the gulf stream shutting down would clinch it.

Meanwhile the ext ens are not great on both suites, cannot see any signs of an Easterly.

Expect another 16-30 downgrade.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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49 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Fingers crossed..

Seems to me the W QBO has destroyed winter this time round.

I'm still waiting for the Pro's to confirm this. I personally don't see how a wQBO alone could have been the impact, after all, we've had SSW during wQBOs that have delivered.

The MJO is forecast (usual caveats) to move into a decent amplitude phase 8 shortly. Phase 8 in February is supposed to be the best phase for proper Greenland blocking. We will know soon enough whether this signal is being overridden by 'something else' soon.

image.thumb.png.410e1fa62260f9373a69e802405a24cc.png

Edited by mountain shadow
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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Meanwhile the ext ens are not great on both suites, cannot see any signs of an Easterly.

Expect another 16-30 downgrade.

Nope, steady as she goes with the update. Still the same colder Easterly prognosis still showing

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