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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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UKMO and ECM not dissimilar at 144z. A plausible solution imo. And hope it comes off as it gives me another cold burst and evolves nicely on ECM which has been hinting at this for a couple of days. Plus a good push west would be nice too. ;)

ECE1-144 (6).gif

UE144-21 (17).gif

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3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Consistent from ecm doesn’t quite get there but it’s trying for sure.

66A3039D-1FEC-42C6-AA5C-2B9173B771E8.png

Look at that PV though! 

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Ends on a good note too.

Both through the euro window-and nor-hemisphericaly as a whole.

Get those heights aligned further north and winter certainly bounces bk...

The winter story of 2019....is far from over!

ECH1-240.gif

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

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Plausible ec op, given previous runs and clusters.  Given the binary nature of the extended clusters, it’s good to see the op going continental again. 

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noticed this, on GFS too, no doubt it'll do the usual and give Somerset and S of M4 a pasting sigh

ECM1-96.GIF?06-12

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3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Look at that PV though! 

Yes, not overly helpful but we can still get cold with a strong pv. The biggest concern for me would be that the gfs has everything much further east D8/9/10. We would want ecm to move a bit further west and although gfs may move it west from run to run a middle ground between ecm and gfs is no good. 

The interesting part would be where it went from D8 and that is completely up for grabs as all including the met have little idea👍

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9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Plausible ec op, given previous runs and clusters.  Given the binary nature of the extended clusters, it’s good to see the op going continental again. 

Yes Blue the ECM is not without interest and interestingly the process towards that evolution starts just about within the reliable time frame.

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10 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Yes, not overly helpful but we can still get cold with a strong pv. The biggest concern for me would be that the gfs has everything much further east D8/9/10. We would want ecm to move a bit further west and although gfs may move it west from run to run a middle ground between ecm and gfs is no good. 

The interesting part would be where it went from D8 and that is completely up for grabs as all including the met have little idea👍

The height anoms say it isn’t so strong and only temporarily in and around Greenland 

thinking back to the beginning of last week, the favoured route forward after the wintryness was a period of zonality followed by a ridge to scandi ...... I think the zonality is going to be around 3/4 days longer than we might have hoped, especially given that feb is ticking ..(assuming the ridge verifies)

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The height anoms say it isn’t so strong and only temporarily in and around Greenland 

thinking back to the beginning of last week, the favoured route forward after the wintryness was a period of zonality followed by a ridge to scandi ...... I think the zonality is going to be around 3/4 days longer than we might have hoped, especially given that feb is ticking ..(assuming the ridge verifies)

Do the height anoms show much in the scandi area day 10ish or are they to far east in your opinion?

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Looks like Ecm may just perhaps be trying to salvage something out of this most frustrating of winters. It’d be nice to think that the dice for once may roll in our favour should such an evolution come to pass and more importantly be built upon in future runs. One dares to dream! Ps Tight Isobar, I love your contribution to this forum, and always enjoy reading your superb analysis and interpretation of the model output. As a fellow coldie I’m forever willing you to be right. :cold:

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10 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Do the height anoms show much in the scandi area day 10ish or are they to far east in your opinion?

Day 10 is pretty good ......but it’s day 10 ....

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Day 10 is pretty good ......but it’s day 10 ....

Enough reason not to throw a towel in then? 😜😜😄😄

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7 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Enough reason not to throw a towel in then? 😜😜😄😄

Control has more traction on the ridge with deeply cold uppers headed west over the North Sea by T200 ....

EDIT: turns towards a slidergate scenario by day 10 with flow becoming se 

Edited by bluearmy

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Ah, ECM, we've been waiting for you! 

The later the ECM turns to the cold pattern though, the better the prospects of it actually being cold. 

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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Control has more traction on the ridge with deeply cold uppers headed west over the North Sea by T200 ....

EDIT: turns towards a slidergate scenario by day 10 with flow becoming se 

Not sure shaky could take another slidergate🤣🤣 a week ago today it only started to look like a south event. 

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ECM getting blocked from 144, Atlantic halted. Would be cold and frosty for the majority with some fog. Potential then for the high to move into a more favourable position.

5780CBED-31CC-44A7-94F3-BCF09B1F43A4.thumb.png.2e4815f476144507584032c5b8ae277d.pngDBA79331-B27C-497A-8AB2-F368DAC3E5C9.thumb.png.0b753c31fc7b51e4a632737708c71e6f.png24F25BCC-DE63-4659-8AB6-A5F8DCD870E0.thumb.png.c15ed07c58966ab9d97c26fcf7d18bfc.png

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12 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Not sure shaky could take another slidergate🤣🤣 a week ago today it only started to look like a south event. 

Given that we know the way the clusters have been lining up and that the ens aren’t going to suddenly all flip to one side, the extended is certainly making a  broad slider scenario pattern the current favourite route for later week 2. Complicated.

Edited by bluearmy

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The UKMO which was the most amplified a few days back goes into the naughty corner ! It’s the flattest solution at day 6 .

The ECM the most amplified and the GFS a halfway house .

They all broadly agree on the early pattern though . After that to get the high to the east in the right position often  takes several attempts.

So to start the day some encouraging signs but we’ve been here before. Earlier on there a is a shot of cold from the north , and the ECM has that Channel Low , it’s marginal though .

 

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7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO which was the most amplified a few days back goes into the naughty corner ! It’s the flattest solution at day 6 .

The ECM the most amplified and the GFS a halfway house .

They all broadly agree on the early pattern though . After that to get the high to the east in the right position often  takes several attempts.

So to start the day some encouraging signs but we’ve been here before. Earlier on there a is a shot of cold from the north , and the ECM has that Channel Low , it’s marginal though .

 

Chanel low making eyes at parts lower northern england wales/midlands...

But as again will need an eye on it.

But interesting nonetheless.

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1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

noticed this, on GFS too, no doubt it'll do the usual and give Somerset and S of M4 a pasting sigh

ECM1-96.GIF?06-12

Lol we won’t get snow from anything this coming weekend. Until last March there hadn’t been widespread snow in the areas you mention for over 5 years. Just so happens there’s now been 3 events in 11 months but we could go X number of years again.

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14 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Chanel low making eyes at parts lower northern england wales/midlands...

But as again will need an eye on it.

But interesting nonetheless.

image.thumb.png.f65f8aed0104bb35ac5055b5efd9c005.png

I cant go through another Southern correction week🤣

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Must say I’m struggling to have the same optimism as many on here, no sign of real sign or northern blocking, would be very sceptical of any model showing a ridge over the UK getting cut off, been modelled so many times this winter and never happened.

The polar vortex raging in February is a true kick in the teeth with how unlucky/poor this winter has been already, I just don’t see a realistic route to real cold, not in the next 2 weeks anyway IMO, this winter has been cursed.

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1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

noticed this, on GFS too, no doubt it'll do the usual and give Somerset and S of M4 a pasting sigh

ECM1-96.GIF?06-12

February is our lucky month. Today, it's 10 years to the day since we got our monumental snowfall, even deeper than last week. Just like last week, it wasn't forecast to be anywhere near as deep and if memory serves me correctly, we were the only part of the country that got it then too.

2010 on the other hand, when everyone else was wading through snow, we got cold and mostly dry, no momentous snowfalls for us that winter.

Swings and roundabouts, as was ever thus with the weather.

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25 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

image.thumb.png.f65f8aed0104bb35ac5055b5efd9c005.png

I cant go through another Southern correction week🤣

00z ECMWF still has a heavy snow signal for Sunday morning for Wales, SW England, Midlands, southern end of northern England.

ECMWF_102_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.thumb.png.f6bcc2d779de0f26166ff753d074ac8b.pngECMWF_108_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.thumb.png.1211bde0e68410342aa9a6650b9f4af2.png

Some very strong winds across southern counties and through English Channel, if this combines with the snow, could be blizzards over SW moors and Welsh hills.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019020600_102_18_379.thumb.png.328cfa81c33c5986322f05ebc7714a00.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2019020600_105_18_379.thumb.png.7a4416b0101762b52c8fa5009f88eacd.png

00z ICON took a deep low further south across northern France

overview_20190206_00_096.thumb.jpg.69bf736508d275b48d464a6a0c66e82b.jpg

00z GFS has a shallow wave running east similar track to 00z EC on Sunday morning, 

Too early to say where this low tracks and how deep, but concerning the potential for very strong winds and snow on northern flank so needs closely monitoring

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