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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

Way into FI, but as that chart looks? No heights rising, too many shortwaves at the southern tip of Greenland.

Well it’s now having ago at Greenland . 

F2EACB0B-62C2-4E9C-8D1E-8348BEDDE796.png

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2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Way into FI, but as that chart looks? No heights rising, too many shortwaves at the southern tip of Greenland.

Looking OK to me at 228

image.thumb.png.56bfb79cfeff95e8f72e9fe44cf03c5c.png

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1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Snow grazing east Kent coast on EC on Wednesday, but never gets any further west. But Tuesday the model shows sleet/snow showers penetrating quite a way inland across England on the NW wind, as far as Hants and E/W Sussex.

Thought there may be some more around Kent area. 👍

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I am starting to see that arctic rabbit again on the latest=❄️😉

gfsnh-0-228.thumb.png.fc17e35261c4b67a7899a6af2c6b0402.png

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252 looking just great.  This does seem to tie in with some of the posts over the last couple of days from the more learned posters in here, where we enter a repeating pattern period.  Possible northeasterly to come?

image.thumb.png.ac438ffb186f259cb9b4b89da8b80172.png

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

18z has the jet sinking further and further south-

I do hope this is the correct evolution..

I wan't some proper uppers!

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

I am starting to see that arctic rabbit again on the latest=❄️😉

 

Still not seeing a split P/V though. anyone think it eventually will?

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I wan't some proper uppers!

Not sure NWS can supply what you want probably best asking the weather gods

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2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

252 looking just great.  This does seem to tie in with some of the posts over the last couple of days from the more learned posters in here, where we enter a repeating pattern period.  Possible northeasterly to come?

image.thumb.png.ac438ffb186f259cb9b4b89da8b80172.png

Amazing its a cockerel.   Continues the them etc

Edited by Had Worse

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18z GFS quite close to the 12z ECM mean with those 3 areas of low heights.

 

18z.gfsnh-12-240.thumb.png.d9c4c2daa22d45ba5f1c81f55efeda7a.pngECM..EDH101-240.GIF.thumb.png.888eb97062784631a286674062de839d.png

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Apart from a milder blip Thurs/Fri/Sat, certainly looking cold thereafter with winds from a NWly occasionally veering Nly direction. With sub -5C and low heights/freezing levels, could be a few surprise snowfalls mixed in there for low levels more particularly north and central but can’t rule out south either, especially nighttime. 

My only concern that seems to consistently be showing is lack of deep cold pool showing to the E and NE in medium range, so hopefully this improves if the models develop E or NE winds.

Edited by Nick F

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9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Snow grazing east Kent coast on EC on Wednesday, but never gets any further west. But Tuesday the model shows sleet/snow showers penetrating quite a way inland across England on the NW wind, as far as Hants and E/W Sussex.

Yes noticed this on the latest BBC forecast, I’m assuming they use the raw EC. A few snow showers made it all the way to London on their graphics during Tuesday. 

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9 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Looking OK to me at 228

image.thumb.png.56bfb79cfeff95e8f72e9fe44cf03c5c.png

As I said, way into FI. And after that chart, all hell ensues. 

 

Strawclutching.com!

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2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Not sure NWS can supply what you want probably best asking the weather gods

I’ve been asking them all winter mate . Every night I prey too them but they just tell me to pee off . 😁

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What I do no is that charts like these are actually pretty damn good, if it wasn’t for the failed easterly attempt this week we would be very very excited at seeing this sort of stuff!

E7A44C46-46D0-421E-98A9-A5EDF71B9BF9.png

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Very good run out to 300hrs, several marginal snow events which for most looks just about on the right side if this run was correct. As I said in the other thread, broadly snow for the Midlands north, a mixture for the south between snow and rain more likely.

Worth noting though that it maybe the snow charts on the GFS are overdoing things as is highly likely to be the case on Tuesday.

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T141 shows Yorkshire getting a hammering. Nice to look at but too far out for now.

The outlook is wintry but you really need to be around 150m+ to make use of these synoptics as the uppers aren't that cold, unless we get some sort of trough or slider etc which is likely at some point 

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wan't some proper uppers!

Yer there not massively cold but not to bad feb as in probably the right side of marginal for snow . 

66D5B0FB-427B-4633-8082-1C59955EE89A.png

D5F8C671-179E-4091-A8CB-489125E3CE7D.png

24DFD904-A21A-4F35-BCEB-F41BA844CF03.png

3AE6A52C-3514-4BD6-9A0B-A22A8F64B5B2.png

6B55704F-BCD3-438C-8C30-69C42795E31C.png

C5A72905-2530-4BD9-BED3-83AD56BE9FBE.png

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5 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Amazing its a cockerel.   Continues the them etc

Thats just for the build up to the French coming to Twickenham, they always send a cockerel over a ten days before 

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1 minute ago, Cheese Rice said:

T141 shows Yorkshire getting a hammering. Nice to look at but too far out for now.

The outlook is wintry but you really need to be around 150m+ to make use of these synoptics as the uppers aren't that cold, unless we get some sort of trough or slider etc which is likely at some point 

TBH cheese, i might do OK, but some of the higher routes straddling west yorks/Greater Manchester (higher Oldham /Hudds etc) could be feet deep in snow in around 10 days..

I actually dont think thats going OTT.

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Just now, ICE COLD said:

Yer there not massively cold but not to bad feb as in probably the right side of marginal for snow . 

 


Yes true although no matter what the uppers are, you wont get snow well in land while the winds are a straight Northerly, and when the winds veer NW ly - they tend to just raise the uppers a little.

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26 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Hmm, I think the EC and Netwx SR Precipitation type charts below are more realistic re snow!B5C04D7B-3E88-46D6-A3D9-4D8176F1B17D.thumb.png.fe7c5901ba6540ea990d2f150c5f05e3.png76C24446-FBD9-4BA6-876C-ACCDF0754693.thumb.png.536f98f2d775b5b62270aae7a70ff55e.png

 

Oh what rain yea marvelous 

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Ha and the run ends with my most hated enemy, the central Atlantic upper low of cold spell destroyer!

Upper highs are very tame to our north this run, I'm thinking its probably underdone on this run, especially when compared with the ECM ensembles for example.

Snowy run for the north/west and also the Midlands this run, little snow for the south broadly, especially the further west you go.

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