Cold hunt - models and chat

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Latest Gavs Weather Vids forecast paints a pretty bleak picture for the rest of February with very little evidence of any cold.  The long range models have flipped to mild also, so another straw gone.  I said yesterday I would wait until mid month before throwing in the towel, but I'm really on the verge of chucking it in now!!

Gavs videos were forecasting  cold throughout late January. I  fail to see your point. He is as much at the mercy of the effects of the SSW as anyone

[StretfordEnd1996]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Latest Gavs Weather Vids outlook paints a pretty bleak picture for the rest of February with very little evidence of any cold.  The long range models have flipped to mild also, so another straw gone.  I said yesterday I would wait until mid month before throwing in the towel, but I'm really on the verge of chucking it in now!!

'very little evidence of any cold'. 

I must be reading this one wrong then. Too many sherries for me I think?  

 

[Don]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Gavs videos were forecasting  cold throughout late January. I  fail to see your point. He is as much at the mercy of the effects of the SSW as anyone

Problem is, the effects of the SSW seem to be fading now with the vortex strengthening.

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

Latest Gavs Weather Vids outlook paints a pretty bleak picture for the rest of February with very little evidence of any cold.  The long range models have flipped to mild also, so another straw gone.  I said yesterday I would wait until mid month before throwing in the towel, but I'm really on the verge of chucking it in now!!

No disrespect but i think people put to much stock these kinds of things..

The number of times he has been wrong have been many.

Its guesswork, ok, at a stretch, educated guesswork.

[Craigers]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

Latest Gavs Weather Vids outlook paints a pretty bleak picture for the rest of February with very little evidence of any cold.  The long range models have flipped to mild also, so another straw gone.  I said yesterday I would wait until mid month before throwing in the towel, but I'm really on the verge of chucking it in now!!

Imagine if all the signals go against an easterly then boom BFTE out of no where!

[Don]

5 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

'very little evidence of any cold'. 

I must be reading this one wrong then. Too many sherries for me I think?  

 

Go and watch his latest video and make of it what you will.

[booferking]

Never got the EC46 update last night doesn't matter likely was showing lovely pink anomaly blocking to the North of us.

[cyclonic happiness]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

Problem is, the effects of the SSW seem to be fading now with the vortex strengthening.

That's not really a problem, seeing as the SSW has delivered mostly nothing to the country, perhaps we need the SSW to dissipate to allow the colder weather to get a hold.  This year has been a very strange one, and things are not running as they should

[StretfordEnd1996]

Just now, Don said:

Go and watch his latest video and make of it what you will.

I think it's more that he's simply using all the information, charts and whatnot that we can all see and putting them altogether. His output today hasn't come as any surprise to me - he's just looking at the charts and relating back the information which on face value yes, looks very bleak!

But I'm a cold lover who doesn't always look for long term cold and raging Easterlies. In periods like these were we're all straw-clutching in that sense, it's always nice to see the odd little cold chart thrown in for good measure like this - this has a very high chance of happening and it could be a lovely cold frosty start for many next Monday. 

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

Problem is, the effects of the SSW seem to be fading now with the vortex strengthening.

And where is the PV strengthening 

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Craigers said:

Imagine if all the signals go against an easterly then boom BFTE out of no where!

So, I'm not the only one who's short of a few marbles then, Craigers?

Och well...if you cannae beat 'em, join 'em! 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

32 minutes ago, Don said:

Latest Gavs Weather Vids outlook paints a pretty bleak picture for the rest of February with very little evidence of any cold.  The long range models have flipped to mild also, so another straw gone.  I said yesterday I would wait until mid month before throwing in the towel, but I'm really on the verge of chucking it in now!!

Because gav said so! He was also projecting a very cold blocked winter. There are still signs from the met we could go colder, it's not out of the question. The way I see it now Don is the more the big guns start to play it down, the more chance we have of getting something, such is the disaster its been for most meteorological agencies. 

Edited February 5, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Don]

12 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I think it's more that he's simply using all the information, charts and whatnot that we can all see and putting them altogether. His output today hasn't come as any surprise to me - he's just looking at the charts and relating back the information which on face value yes, looks very bleak!

I know, he's summarising all the information he has, which is fair enough.  I wasn't expecting deep cold this month, but was hoping for a continuation of the pattern we had through mid to late January, i.e. northerly shots with the chance of at least some short lived snow events.  However, this is not looking too likely at the moment, either.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Anyway the daily express talking up a vortex armaggeddon so that's me on board

[StretfordEnd1996]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

I know, he's summarising all the information he has, which is fair enough.  I wasn't expecting deep cold this month, but was hoping for a continuation of the pattern we had through mid to late January, i.e. northerly shots with the chance of at least some short lived snow events.  However, this is not looking too likely at the moment, either.

It's a good job the month contains 28 days then isn't it. Plenty to play for from 17th-28th in my opinion. We'll see
This below for starters does seem like something is knocking on the door - albeit with a knock as loud as a paperclip dropping on the floor.. it's still something.

[tight isobar]

46 minutes ago, Don said:

Latest Gavs Weather Vids outlook paints a pretty bleak picture for the rest of February with very little evidence of any cold.  The long range models have flipped to mild also, so another straw gone.  I said yesterday I would wait until mid month before throwing in the towel, but I'm really on the verge of chucking it in now!!

Perhaps "gav" has overlooked the short/medium term..b4 decipher any latter notions!!??..

With operationals also taking a swipe towards there ens...!!!

Sometimes i really wonder!!!..

 

t850London.webp

ecm

gfs

Edited February 5, 2019 by tight isobar

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Anyway the daily express talking up a vortex armaggeddon so that's me on board

Sod the Express...I blame it on Snowmoaners; winter has been well-and-truly thwarted...by a cabal of elitist weather experts!

[steveinsussex]

10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Anyway the daily express talking up a vortex armaggeddon so that's me on board

Thats cause Yamkin messaged them on twitter and told then the CFS was showing a BFTE in 2 weeks time *rolleyes*

If You think im lying, go look at his twitter feed.....

[Bristawl Si]

35 minutes ago, Don said:

Go and watch his latest video and make of it what you will.

Why would you place any trust in what this Gav guy says? Bizarre.

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Why would you place any trust in what this Gav guy says? Bizarre.

Just for everyone’s info Gavs videos is @Summer Sun here on netweather and we all know what weather he likes . Only joking Gav

[tight isobar]

11 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Thats cause Yamkin messaged them on twitter and told then the CFS was showing a BFTE in 2 weeks time *rolleyes*

If You think im lying, go look at his twitter feed.....

Them @the express viewing the e-mail

 

Now which 1 will it be ??????

Edited February 5, 2019 by tight isobar

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Thats cause Yamkin messaged them on twitter and told then the CFS was showing a BFTE in 2 weeks time *rolleyes*

If You think im lying, go look at his twitter feed.....

Oh, I thought it was James madden and piers corbyn, love them 2, they been forecasting a 3 month freeze now since 1998, tell you what one of these days they gonna get it right, its sod law ain't it

 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Why would you place any trust in what this Gav guy says? Bizarre.

Gavin doesn't make forecasts, BB...he merely indicates what the models and - dare I say it? -  the background signals are suggesting. The rest, as they say, is b******s!

[feb1991blizzard]

For people who are moaning about Gavin Partridge, why not take it up with him, he is open to being questioned on his website, in the youtube comments boxes, or you could even PM him or mention him on here.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/profile/6446-gavin-p/

[78/79]

12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Sod the Express...I blame it on Snowmoaners; winter has been well-and-truly thwarted...by a cabal of elitist weather experts!

Ably led by their High Priest Darren Bett