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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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See what you mean now Nick, input data 5c out - thats hardly going to improve GFS's poor form in terms of accuracy!!

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12 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

An exaction of some of the longer rangers!!!..

@very late feb/early march..

With a whip of heights and again some deep pooling infer...

I hate to use it but...REDUX 2018!!!..

The spaces need watching!!!

And here come the Long Ranger! 

 

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7 minutes ago, IDO said:

....

graphe3_1000_306_149___.thumb.gif.f819ee4f9cce270a8462404788218b1c.gif

That looks more like Donald Trump's lie detector test.

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9 hours ago, nick sussex said:

BA do you have the UKMO day 7 chart ? There’s likely to be some support for its day 6  in the ECM given the spreads.

What do you think re the MJO , phase 8 should help us .

Sorry nick , missed this ......MJO phase 8 is brilliant for coldies but the MJO analogues haven’t really cut it this season thus far. 

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10 minutes ago, IDO said:

....

graphe3_1000_306_149___.thumb.gif.f819ee4f9cce270a8462404788218b1c.gif

At least FV3 is on the money.

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2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

That looks more like Donald Trump's lie detector test.

When questioned about global warming not happening, 😅

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3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

At least FV3 is on the money.

And tonight's Navgem 😉

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The navgem is way better than gfsp which is simply some cool zonality and a transient chilly norwester in deep fi 

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22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Given the binary nature of the extended eps clusters and the fact that the gefs still have around 40% of members showing a wintry extended solution, I suspect it won’t be long until some decent week 2 ops appear and the thread will become busy and less depressed........if the gfs or para don’t find a wintry week 2 solution over one of their next four runs then start to worry !

Hi BA, 

I don`t understand a great deal about the MJO, but looking at the current forecasts going into phase 7 and 8 , shouldn`t we be seeing some sort of HLB in the models by now instead of a raging PV as is been advertised. I do understand there is a lag effect to consider, so when do you expect , if at all, the phase 7 and 8 being picked up by the models? 

Is the WAA over Alaska into the pole something to do with it as well ? . 

ensplume_small.thumb.gif.d67f577be7bdbbb8c141637001efa726.gif

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The weekend needs an eye already..

Wouldnt take a great deal of tweeking for snow quite widely in the forecast...ecm 12z...

Already the notions- are noted !!!

ECU1-120.gif

Edited by tight isobar

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Just now, tight isobar said:

The weekend needs an eye already..

Wouldnt take a great deal of tweeking for snow quite widely in the forecast...ecm 12z...

Already the notion are noted !!!

ECU1-120.gif

image.thumb.png.db403924d5d6db70aa461b409e7f6070.png

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Just now, Drifter said:

 

550.jpg

Im serious, if your after snow, its garbage.

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1 minute ago, Drifter said:

 

550.jpg

Depends on what your preferences are, its a stonker if you like rain and gale - severe gale force winds.

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9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.db403924d5d6db70aa461b409e7f6070.png

Of course i noted/viewed those overheads...

but as a seasond nw-member i assume you know that the overall evo is king...and those uppers wobbly at that range...thus @tweeking....

Any isobaric teack change..could easily find a quick route of colder pen-of even colder uppers......

@more widespread

Edited by tight isobar

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im serious, if your after snow, its garbage.

it dumps about six inches of snow on you mate ………. the dp's look marginal so would be down to intensity bit a worrying looking feature for a few reasons 

Edited by bluearmy

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2 minutes ago, XtremeUKWeather said:

Um no

if you say so …..

A567AE24-3405-41C6-8B6A-47E319B9E079.thumb.jpeg.e3a713b96a0fe049277ad1a34d02f541.jpeg

And yes, I know they are not reliable but simply passing on what the model run shows ....

Edited by bluearmy

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

it dumps about six inches of snow on you mate ………. the dp's look marginal so would be down to intensity bit a worrying looking feature for a few reasons 

TBH blue its more about the general evolution..

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

TBH blue its more about the general evolution..

I know ....but you posted that it’s garbage for snow ......................

Looks like a uk upper high in fi 

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That massive cold block over Arctic Siberia and the vanished Canada PV cold looks decent to me

 

ECH0-168.GIF?05-0

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