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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Duly noted is the move from the ICON 06z to the UKMO solution at 120 with the shallow atlantic trough moving SE past Ireland & a more amplified solution towards Greenland -

This model discussion should have been titled "Waiting for Godot"!

Getting our cold kicks from transient features like that is how this winter has passed.

As for the SSW downwelling, I look at it as "The Gunfight at the OK Corral"...

...without the gunfight.

Nice loop of the downwelling:

https://video.twimg.com/tweet_video/DyljCn4W0AA6_gJ.mp4

source: "https://twitter.com/alopezlang/status/1092513489707503617

 

 

 

 

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59 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Given that we are downstream from the Canadian lobe of doom, how does an MLB over us impact it?

 

A strong high that blocks and eventually migrates northward.PV spins itself into oblivion 

As per GEFS general trend.

Edited by winterof79

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Et voila: le petit stonkeur; le stonkeurette; le petit toppleur...Sacre bleu! Zut! Merde!🤔

image.thumb.png.ceb5be6ad86daf3d991a3f125377eea2.pngimage.thumb.png.2a2fbac41597e2dbb79c905f465ef43c.png  

 

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Look at that vortex lol... GROSS! 🤢 Least it’s a dry chart

4965640C-F776-4919-A77D-6F53A3183D19.png

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14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Et voila: le petit stonkeur; le stonkeurette; le petit toppleur...Sacre bleu! Zut! Merde!🤔

image.thumb.png.ceb5be6ad86daf3d991a3f125377eea2.pngimage.thumb.png.2a2fbac41597e2dbb79c905f465ef43c.png  

 

And for those of us who never did French at school!! There you go, the little stonker, the little toppler, damn it, heck, s--t, 👍

Edited by Mattwolves
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48 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

but what about France where you are? winter ended last year here on 19th March

Did it? I had a snowfall on 2nd of April...

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22 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

A strong high that blocks and eventually migrates northward.PV spins itself into oblivion 

As per GEFS general trend.

Experience will tell you the high normally sinks Southwards

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3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Experience will tell you the high normally sinks Southwards

Yes experience told us that we should have experienced the effects of downwelling and a reversal of tropospheric winds by now.... but hey ho

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Stunning!

anim_cxq2.gif

Who went for a negative CET in February? Own up!

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1 minute ago, IDO said:

Stunning!

anim_cxq2.gif

Who went for a negative CET in February? Own up!

Are 850's representative of 2m temps under high pressure?

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2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Are 850's representative of 2m temps under high pressure?

I think that chart gives you the answer to that question, if they were, you would be looking at temps of 20c!!

In future - D.N.R.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think that chart gives you the answer to that question, if they were, you would be looking at temps of 20c!!

In future - D.N.R.

Do not reply?

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Could easily see some high temps, due to Foehn (sp?) effect, in the usual places (North Wales & Moray Firth) were something like what these charts suggest ever to verify?

image.thumb.png.7ccbfe54634a73deb9a222c4814016dc.pngimage.thumb.png.68c306ef22c43a15b35a3ec7a50798fc.png  

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18z Para is coming out now, while also the 6z para is coming out.

0z para will be lost forever

Edited by Snowman.
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Putting it mildly, this is not the finale to winter i'm hoping for from the Gfs 6z operational although it would feel very pleasant all the same..bl**dy background signals!!!:diablo::gathering:

06_300_ukthickness850.png

06_300_mslp850.png

06_300_uk2mtmp.png

06_372_ukthickness850.png

06_372_mslp850.png

06_372_uk2mtmp.png

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Putting it mildly, this is not the finale to winter i'm hoping for from the Gfs 6z operational although it would feel very pleasant all the same..bl**dy background signals!!!:diablo::gathering:

06_300_ukthickness850.png

06_300_mslp850.png

06_300_uk2mtmp.png

06_372_ukthickness850.png

06_372_mslp850.png

06_372_uk2mtmp.png

I think we should just treat Background Signals, the same way we treat everything else...Initialise them!?😀

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39 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Are 850's representative of 2m temps under high pressure?

No, that's dependent on the dominant wind direction. Typically south equals warm, west average, north or east cold. Night frost as long as high is clear though whatever direction.

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The 06z NAVGEM is the closest to the 00Z UKMO at 144 which pans out like this @180

D117354B-2E8C-4864-86A2-C8C4EE882E9E.thumb.png.42c7af02674e3a14e5801c4086c5b21e.png

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2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Can we put to bed this guff regarding winter .

Winter is Dec, Jan, Feb .

Its a nonsense  to call winter ending March 21 st . The last time I looked this is a weather site not an astronomy one .

To use the logic that winter ends 21 March then means winter starts Dec 21 st.

The US for some bizarre reason peddles this nonsense but thankfully UK forecasters haven’t followed this .

Moan over ! 😎

Wow. From someone who comes across as being rather clued up on this weather lark, that certainly is a very narrow minded view.

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The GEFS are still mixed early on but more now showing the jet cut back into the UK.

# Keep the faith! 😎

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Please Can you help us novices by keeping to the facts. Don't get I to petty sniping and having a go at each other. It's not cricket 

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7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Thanks but its not narrow minded . Meteorological winter is Dec , Jan and Feb.

All winter records cover those months . I’m really not sure why this new view of winter has taken off in here ! 😎

Yep hence we have four seasons whatever the weather.Warmth in late September early October  woudnt be classed as summer,just unseasonably warm

Edited by swfc
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OK let's put the topic to bed. Astronomical seasons are relative to the position of the earth's orbit around the sun, taking into account equinoxes and soltices. Meteorological seasons are instead based on the annual temperature cycles measuring the meteorological state and coinciding gregorian calender to determine a clear transition and equal length season's! So let's all agree to have a different view on this and move on folks! 🙄

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26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GEFS are still mixed early on but more now showing the jet cut back into the UK.

# Keep the faith! 😎

I've been trying too all winter...noticed in the papers yesterday (The Mirror, yes I know) a MetO spokesman mentioned the second half of February will be colder, another straw to grasp?

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